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2026 Galway West By Election

GippyGup

Election set for May 22nd to replace Catherine Connolly.

Announced candidates:

Fine Gael - Seán Kyne

Independent Ireland - Noel Thomas

Social Democrats - Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

Independent - Sheila Garrity

Green - Niall Murphy

Aontú - Orla Nugent

Labour - Helen Ogbu

PBP–Solidarity - Denman Rooke

Independent - Thomas Welby

Not announced:

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin (likely Mark Lohan)

Independent (Mike Cubbard)

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L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481165#Comment_124481165

There are extensive deferral options, which can move the liability to death.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124479827#Comment_124479827

Who said that?

L1011

In 2024, Lowry nominated Cathal Berry and MHR nominated nobody. Did whoever that was mean a different year?

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481174#Comment_124481174

So it becomes like a second tax on an inheritance? So again it's a tax that takes no account of earnings?

Can you understand now why the lefties oppose it?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481200#Comment_124481200

It's a tax on wealth, of course those take no account of earnings.

No, I will never understand irrational populist decisions.

Do SF/PBP/etcs wealth tax proposals take account of earnings? If they do, how do they stop gaming the system by making yourself appear to have no earnings in a given year?

GippyGup

You guys are getting off topic, take it to the general politics threads

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481214#Comment_124481214

The fact that high earners can sometimes hide their earnings is not a good reason to not tax said earnings. We have laws that need to be applied. Just because a drug dealer might not get caught is not a reason to not have laws against drug dealing. Similarly we have laws that prohibit the hiding of income for taxation purposes

But as mentioned above, this is off topic

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481316#Comment_124481316

Yeah, they don't take account of earnings because wealth taxes inherently don't take account of earnings.

Populist parties deciding that the most common component of personal wealth doesn't count cause it gets them a few votes is why populist parties cannot be taken seriously on anything financial.

Stewball

Any latest poll for GW?

The only one I saw had Ogbu on 14/15% a couple of weeks ago - which sounded crazy to me.

zell12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481175#Comment_124481175

Dunno, some male voice. Listen back to see the posioned pool we must choose from 😁

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481538#Comment_124481538

12%. Which is very plausible as Connolly's votes are going to go somewhere, and her votes would have had a large contingent of ex-Labour votes, considering a: she was Labour and b: she basically took Higgin's seat.

It is extremely unlikely that anyone else is going to pay for the costs of a poll, TG4 did it because of it being a partial Gaeltacht constituency.

Geuze

Boyle Sports 19.05.2026

Paddy Power 19.05.2026

Stewball

Going by those odds - it's a two horse race.

No fan of Thomas, but I'd rather he took the seat than Kyne.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481567#Comment_124481567

That's a good price on Boyle Sports for Kyne. I have a number of bets on PP for Kyne. Even at 6/5. I think it will be very difficult to beat him. Surprised he isn't favourite but it's all about the money laid down rather than the probability when it comes to political bets. The rest of the field is poor and FG will get the vote out.

Dr Robert

Likely a Kyne v Thomas race

GippyGup

It will not be a Kyne versus Thomas race if Thomas isn't ahead on first preferences.

It's looking most likely to be a Kyne versus Left race. The problem for the left is nobody knows who that left candidate is and everyone wants it to be them.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481602#Comment_124481602

If they're the last two I can't see how Thomas gets anywhere close. Where is he going to get transfers?

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481617#Comment_124481617

He won't get enough from anti-govt voters. Kyne will get plenty of transfers from FF and Welby for sure. Then he should get more than enough from Green, SD and Labour.

HBC08

As a casual observer this looks like a pretty easy to predict result.

Its a two horse race between Kyne and Thomas with Kyne winning as he is more transfer friendly.

It seems pretty obvious this is the way its going to go.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481825#Comment_124481825

Add up the various left votes and it starts to become rather hard for Thomas to stay ahead of a left candidate; unless he actually outpolls Kyne on the first count.

GP<>Lab<>SD transfers are usually quite solid, PBP and SF to other parties less so, but there's a huge Lab, SD and GP block in the polling

Ignore bookies, and particularly ignore Polymarket. They do not set odds based on anything other than stakes laid.

zell12

Some wag on Radio1 earlier named the SD candidate as Mee Dah Nee Hun Lick

L1011

Poll analysis from someone experienced in this, has Ogbu winning if the TG4 poll is extremely accurate

Dublin Central and Galway West By-Election Poll Analysis – Irish Election Projections

Note that they have previously massively understated SD and Labour seat numbers when doing constituency by constituency analysis, so who knows what if any changes to their model has come from that. They were eerily accurate with other parties.

HBC08

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124481833#Comment_124481833

Id be expecting Thomas to out poll kyne on the 1st vote.

Gremlinertia

Thank you for getting back to topic. Can we continue to do so please

GippyGup

Labour have really gone all in on Ogbu being the "leading left" candidate. If she doesn't get the highest FPV on the day I think they'll be some fingers pointed.

WolfeEire

This is the SF poll i referred to earlier in this thread. Poll conducted around 10 days ago.
https://x.com/TullMcAdoo/status/2056711689907716209/photo/1

L1011

The Aontu and Labour vote figures in Central look insane and potentially swapped.

Also, only 5 candidates with any % in Gort-Kinvara?

Don't think I've seen a poll this suspect since the Indo stopped using that firm that often added to 98% or 103%.

GippyGup

Some very strange results in the breakout tabs but we're talking about 50 people in each group, maybe it evens out in the overall result.

What's curious about that poll is that even if it's accurate I'd still expect the SocDems or Labour to overtake Sinn Féin with those numbers.

GippyGup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124482292#Comment_124482292

It is normal for polls not to add up to 100% because the results are rounded to the nearest number

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124482334#Comment_124482334

99% or 101% is somewhat common due to rounding

98% or 103%, both numbers that polling firm ended up with, indicate serious problems.