https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2026/01/05/selected-declared-candidates-for-the-2026-galway-west-and-dublin-central-by-elections/
Party/Grouping
Dublin Central
Fianna Fáil
Cllr. John Stephens
Sinn Féin
Cllr. Janice Boylan
Fine Gael
Cllr. Ray McAdam
Labour Party
Ruth O’Dea
Social Democrats
Cllr. Danel Ennis
Independent Ireland
People Before Profit-Solidarity
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
Aontú
Ian Noel Smyth
Green Party
Cllr. Janet Horner
Irish Freedom Party
The Irish People
National Party
Ireland First
Paul Fitzsimons
Centre Party
Andrew Kelly
Independents
Cllr. Malachy Steenson Gerry Hutch
Candidates so far.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Central
Probably May 22nd
https://www.thebriefing.ie/parties-are-spending-big-now-we-know-how-big-in-real-time/
What happens when you design a law around Meta's architecture, and then apply it to leafletting Connemara?
The EU has newish political ad transparency laws, but the large social media companies like Facebook and Google refused to comply with them because they say they are too onerous, so they refused to take political ads, so now EU political parties are publishing what they are spending on physical ads. Liz Carolan analysis' the data.
The data is from
https://transparency.finegael.ie/
https://labour.ie/transparency/
https://transparency.fiannafail.ie/
https://sinnfein.ie/transparency/
https://www.socialdemocrats.ie/transparency/
https://www.greenparty.ie/transparency
https://aontu.ie/transparency/
https://www.pbp.ie/transparency/
https://www.independentireland.ie/transparency
Selling fake Viagra, I wouldn't hold that against him.
Daily Mail Craig Hughes writes
In September 2023, he began working for Social Democrats TD for Dublin Central Gary Gannon.
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-daily-mail/20260513/textview?popupArticleId=281676851540264
What does he mean work, he declared no job on council declarations… https://www.dublincity.ie/sites/default/files/2025-10/combined-ethics-declarations-newly-elected-councillors-compressed.pdf pg 54
The problem for the Social Democrats is that they project themselves as holier than thou.
Those declaration of interest forms are not simple to fill in and definitions are not clear, it is not difficult to fail to fill them correctly. However, if you present yourself as cleaner than clean, you should really give them a lot of attention.
If he wasn't a director as well as company secretary he hasn't filled it out wrong. I was under the impression that he may have been one of Gary Gannon's employed administrative assistants/constituency workers.
No sign of the poll being published yet.
So, as an aside, this is rather unexpected amount of betting - according to the Irish Examiner:
Polymarket has taken $1.1m in bets on the outcome of the Dublin Central by election, including half a million on Gerry Hutch to win the seat.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-41843151.html
A good reminder how meaningless betting odds are, the second most bet on name isn't even on the ballot
If it's like last week, then it will be 7pm
Sinn Féin and Soc Dems close on first transfers but Soc Dems would win on transfers here. Good number for Hutch. Awful number for Fianna Fáil. Disappointing I think for Green Party who hoped to be in the mix more.
That's paywalled.
Apparently the poll has SF on 21%, SD's 17% but SD's well ahead on 2nd preferences. SF will be relieved to be in the FPV lead at any rate. Hutch third on 14% and Steenson on 7%, FG 13% which isn't bad and suggests they might take back PD's seat in the GE, Greens 8%, FF 4%.
What the poll numbers tell us in Dublin Central – The Irish Times
Disaster for FF
Cost of living and housing by far the biggest issues again, despite the completely over-saturated coverage of immigration.
This feels like a relatively expected outcome. SF, LAB, Greens and FG are close enough to their numbers at the last election, SD's are up and probably win on transfers with those numbers.
Absolutely abysmal 4% from the FF candidate if that materialises.
The Hutch and Steenson rise is interesting considering the heavy transfer Hutch got from him last time, if they combine for over 20% in an actual GE they'll surely win a seat for the far right.
Yes, Hutch and Sherlock would play musical chairs.
Is Hutch really far right though? I'm not overly convinced he is.
He's expressed far right views rather than being outwardly far right.
Do you know sample size and margin of error?
He also acknowledged the work by immigrants in various sectors as important (how very Soc Dem/Labour of him), as Irish people have become 'too posh' to do it.
I know he singled out Somalis and Indians and spoke about internment, but when you look at that entire exchange, it just reeks of populism to me and saying what he thinks people want to hear.
In the 2024 General Election he spoke about being alright with immigration as long as they 'bring their toolboxes and get down to work'.
659 adults with a margin of error of plus/minus 4.
2 horse race between SF and SD. The future looks bright if this momentum can be kept for the next general election
SF/SD coalition?
What will the 4 seats be in a general election ? - 1 SF , 1 SD , 1FG and Labour or Hutch for 4th seat
It's a bit flattering to put him anywhere on the Overton window (and it'd want a very good burglar alarm). He knows what his support base wants and he knows where his transfers come from. That's it.
Same as last time, in other words.
gonna be a real dogfight. Unusually scenario where two sitting tds - Sherlock and the by-election winner- will be hugely up against it to hold their seats.
SF seem to be favourites. I suspect a fair number Hutch's second preferences may transfer to SF on anti-Establishment/protest vote grounds.
They both start with "S" I suppose….
Surely they would need them mad shower from PBP as well and they are a party not designed to govern.
It's the only real alternative government that would work. Labour are divided on cooperation with SF and if the numbers require help from PBP, Greens or Independents then it's far too many interests to form anything cohesive.
SD's need to rise to become the 4th "big party" as opposed to the biggest of the small parties for that to happen, remains to be seen if they can achieve that but if they could win both of these by-elections it would certainly send a message that they've become a serious force in Irish politics.
He mentioned toolboxes again this time.
Although the majority of immigrants here work in IT or Pharma or Healthcare or Finance.
I hope he meant it figuratively.
It's complete madness that he's actually running and will get votes.
@orangerhyme "It's complete madness that he's actually running and will get votes."
It is worse than that, it is extremely depressing that an electorate, who we are regularly told are politically sophisticated, would give any votes to someone like Hutch with his gangland background.
