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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Spring 2026.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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Spring is just a few days away and FI stretches beyond the 1st week of March so I thought I may as well open the Spring thread early since most FI charts are now in Spring.

After a rotten winter there are signs that we are starting to turn the corner on the very wet pattern which dominated the majority of winter 2025/2026. The opening week of March will be unsettled at times but there are definitely signs of a dryer trend developing as we head into the second week of March.

Overall we are set to remain mild but cooler back closer to average temperatures may happen towards the end of the 1st week of March.

High pressure could take over as we progress into March but it remains to be seen if we can get rid of the zonal pattern for a while, but thankfully rainfall amounts do not look like the daily deluge pattern that persisted through second half of January and most of February.

We could really do with the above verifying however with such poor model verification through winter especially from the GFS I would take the above with a pinch of salt for now.

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pauldry

All Easter weekend looks a mess all over too. Blustery winds rain hail anything you want. Possible named storm too.

After Easter things quiten down a bit.

Widdensushi

The worst of it is missing the country now, passing nw.

BrentMused

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124354965#Comment_124354965

https://twitter.com/i/status/2039234886196715866

Sadly not :(

Ros4Sam24

13 days since anyone’s posted in here, no surprise really 😒, but light at the end of the tunnel?

Good model agreement for a ridge of high pressure to build in this weekend, and probably lasting at least a few days.

No real signal for warmth however

Gfs seems keen on an easterly middle of next week, will see if it gains much traction

As Sryan says often on here, April is very prone to easterlies. Would give the land a chance to dry up, which I’d say most are praying for by now!

Gonzo

If that easterly verifies it certainly won't be T-shirt weather. Easterlies at this time of the year while not like easterly potential in winter, the wind from an easterly at this time of the year can feel very chilly indeed even with sunshine.

Meteorite58

Delicately poised perhaps although been trending more settled from the ECM, drier and warmer for many away from those onshore Easterlies. ECM showing high teens for many maybe touching 20C towards the end of the week, fohn can really bring up the temperatures in the Western half of the country in that kind of a set up. GFS not as good though , never builds the heights and doesn't draw in that warm airmass originating from the tropics. GEM not bad either , ACCESS -G not as warm . Uncertainty, will have to see if the ECM holds and there is more model consensus . One thing they all agree on at this current stage is far less rainfall, not totally dry but a big improvement out to +240hrs anyway.

Meteorite58

Nice to see the very much improved drier charts out to +240hrs, ECM showing getting into the mid teens from around mid week, showing some 17C that bit further West, GFS showing mid teens away from Easterly coasts initially but winds could swing around from the South later in the run helping the temperatures up in the East , quite cool nights in store under that higher pressure, could be frosts over quite a few nights in the calm airs. Lots of E'lys and backing N'ly surface winds by the looks of it , no strong winds standing out at this stage ( maybe Weds a bit windy in southern counties for a time, should be fairly light or calm overland for much of the next 10 days especially at night helping those frosts to develop.

sryanbruen

16 day precip accumulation chart from the GFS 0z… basically no measurable rainfall for Ireland for the entire outlook. Wow

tiegan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124406529#Comment_124406529

Bank!!

Chris_5339762

Looks kind of like an Omega block. Those are hard to shift when they get started… should get a fortnight of good weather easily.

littlema

..…and soil temperatures up so plants and grass good to go

Screenshot_20260420_075452_com.android.chrome.jpg

Gonzo

after what seems like months and months of Atlantic muck, finally we have a decent perhaps prolonged break from the Atlantic, wind and rain. Hopefully we don't end up paying for this with a crap summer but looking into the long range they are currently showing a decent summer.

sryanbruen

The rest of April is likely to be bone dry for many at this point in time then uncertainty arises into May as to whether the high can hold on. Some runs have been showing a trend towards low pressure returning from the North Atlantic - the latest GFS is one of those with some slow-moving lows dumping a decent bit in a short period of time for those unlucky to be directly under the rain bands - whilst the latest ECM shows it remaining bone dry as far as the run goes.

I think on average it is fair to say that a change is probable by early May as we will have had about 2 weeks of high pressure by that time. How much of a change? We'll worry about that when the time gets closer. For now let's enjoy the dry, warmer weather and slacker easterly winds once we get this mid-week period out of the way.

sryanbruen

Looks like an increasing risk of showers (possibly merging into longer spells of rain) returning around Thursday or Friday later next week as little upper level troughs arrive with the main anticyclone going a bit further eastward. A few days of showers and cooler conditions follow.

ECM 12z then showed pressure rising again afterward for a few days. It tried to get a North Atlantic ridge going which some recent runs have attempted to bring down a cold northerly into early May but the 12z fails to do so and gets flattened off rather quickly. We've seen a few attempts of a northerly in recent weeks including for this weekend but they never verified and high pressure became stubborn bringing the cold air down into eastern Europe. GFS 12z was very similar to the ECM 12z in the progression but goes pretty warm later through the first week of May as high pressure heads east drawing up a warmer airmass whereas the ECM soon returns to an Atlantic flow.

Certainly a signal there for a more changeable start to May.

sryanbruen

Trending quite cool with a period of well below average 850s aloft mid-week next week. Might get late season frost if nights become clear. Not a lot of rain apart from the Bank Holiday weekend being showery. The precipitation spikes in fantasy land are the result of the mid-Atlantic ridge bringing the cool weather around Tuesday collapsing and bringing more of an Atlantic flow.

The North Atlantic has significantly cooled down compared to recent years with below average SST anomalies expanding so westerlies will have more of a cooling effect than they have had for a while if they do occur.

Meteorite58

The cooler trend seems to be continuing in general for the next 10 days going by the main models ( GFS showing some slightly milder interludes perhaps ). In the main looks like sourcing air from a Northerly airflow, which could produce nice bright if a bit cool weather at times, signs of it being a bit breezy next week at times too as the isobars get squeezed, models showing low rainfall totals which might not be great for the cereal growers . Cool nights, both models showing getting into the mid teens in parts next week.

Mayo and Louth

Last night's ECM is indicating quite a deep LP near Ireland around the 18th. Interesting to see if it's still there on later runs.

sryanbruen

It still looks rather unsettled around the 18th but fortunately no explosive cyclogenesis indicated on the latest runs. GEFS 0z show a signal for a rise in temperature towards average and going above later. Still a fair bit of precipitation spikes showing two possibilities:

The warm air is coming from a southerly so pressure builds to the east keeping things rather mixed for Ireland.
Different runs seeing different starting points for pressure to build from the Azores over us.

GFS 0z was by far the quickest solution with Ireland under the influence of a ridge nicely by the 19th/20th. Also a little different where the influence starts from the east rather than from the southwest. The other models are showing the latter from the 21st on. However the GFS also turns things more mixed again rather quickly with flabby lows whereas others such as ECM keep a strong ridge in our vicinity so swings and roundabouts. The main signal is that it looks as though the temperature will be on the rise next week to more respectable levels for the time of year and perhaps going warmer later.

Mayo and Louth

This evenings ECM looking a tad more optimistic. HP trying to build in at the start of next week.

sryanbruen

Yeah it's looking like the warm up could begin as soon as Tuesday next week but still unsettled bringing tropical maritime air up from the mid-Atlantic.

Monday looks quite wet out west, eastern regions sheltered from the usual mountain shadows in a southwesterly flow.

Possibly 20C by Wednesday if we manage to get hazy sunshine considering usual ECM conservative maximum temps forecast - it still looks predominantly cloudy with outbreaks of rain or showers though.

Looks great by Friday with high pressure building nicely in the North Sea.

sryanbruen

Strong signal now from multiple ensemble sets for temperatures to go significantly above average from Tuesday onwards. Still unsettled with fair bits of rain until Tuesday/Wednesday before hopefully settling down for the following weekend. Could get widespread 20s by then.

Sammy2012

What are the charts showing for the June weekend?

Ros4Sam24

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124469450#Comment_124469450

Far too early to tell, give it another 7-10 days before any reliability at that range.

Ros4Sam24

Haven’t had much time for posts the last few weeks but some interesting weather possibly to come later next week, a lot to be ironed out however.

Ecm and Ecm ai illustrate this and paint two very different pictures for next weekend

Ecm with a cut off low and a bit of a plume scenario, imagine it would be quite hot and humid. Turns into a great run, dry and warm. Farmers would definitely be calling for rain!

Ecm ai is pretty terrible but does have some support from other models

Hp sets up too far east and southwesterlies from the Atlantic come barrelling in, high rainfall totals in the west if this came off, very unlike Spring.

I would say these are both unlikely scenarios and a middle ground is more likely. Still probably warm but the odd thundery shower and a bit of cloud.

With the Lc coming up my time in boards will be limited over the next while. I am personally hoping for a back-loaded Summer but beggars can’t be choosers. Lc weather is great until it’s your own leaving…

squonk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124471394#Comment_124471394

Forget the weather! Best of luck with the leaving cert! No matter what it’ll be a sunny day when you finish the last exam and pack away the books! Give ‘em hell!

sryanbruen

The trend to increasingly warm and dry seems to be back.

GFS 12z and ECM AI 0z were spectacular with solid strong influence of high pressure with very warm air beneath through next weekend basically over the country. The ECM AI went onto threatening May records by day 12 😂. Now I think that's taking it a step far… I'm only showing it to archive here, not to be taken seriously but the overall trend is back to a positive one if it's warmer, drier you seek after another mixed week. This is only slightly delayed from when it was previously looking to evolve this way which was by Thursday-Saturday, now it's more Saturday/Sunday.

Still time for change though, 6-7 (don't) days away after all…

sryanbruen

Rinse and repeat this morning. Looking very warm by this time next week with widespread 25C possible though probably low 20s more realistically.

Just a classic warm and dry setup. Anticyclone over the North Sea with a light easterly flow.

Chris_5339762

Very welcome but that temperature gradient near the cost is suspicious for some annoying onshore winds.

JanuarySnowstor

Subtle changes this morning showing next weeks high under attack from the West! A warm sunny week was looking likely, now Im not so sure

Edit, Ecm is much better!

sryanbruen

UKMO has always had a poor verification record beyond day 4.

I think Monday/Tuesday next week at the very least will be quite warm for late May for many with strong anticyclonic influence (possibly record-breaking) close by which will help to minimise cloud to an extent even if not directly overhead. For localised weather, there will be variation depending on where exactly the anticyclone sits but that's par for the course.

Nearly all the ECM ensembles show 850hPa temps >10C through Monday-Wednesday next week. GEFS not quite as bullish including the OP itself as the fetch of warm air isn't nearly as strong from the south/SW rather than S/SE but generally dry.