After the biggest Presidential election debacle in Fianna Fail's history, how long realistically does Micheal Martin have left? Will he resign or will there be a heave against him?
Agree with your second point. On the first, the SD's and PBP don't have the national organisations to cash in on any collapse in the SF vote, even if it were likely to happen. SF might (and probably would) lose some support to them in urban areas, once any FF/SF coalition became a reality. But that's life. Any left or left-styled party, any party in fact, can expect to lose votes once they walk into Govt Buildings as they will never fulfil their voters' expectations
Heard a fair bit of MM's interview on RTE Radio 1, nothing surprising. MM and FF picked a candidate who wasn't up to the hard slog of a political campaign and was a poor media performer.
Similarly, although McM withdrawing was important, FG picked a candidate who was a poor media performer and many didn't believe she was even particularly committed to the race.
Also SF waited a long time before giving CC their backing.
Lots of hindsight.
CC is PoI and it's time to move on.
Currently on NT, getting more intense grilling from Pat Kenny
He is absolutely insisting on that himself, publicly anyway.
Let's not forget that Gavin has zero links to FF in the past and wasn't even a member. MM forced Gavin on the FF party. There wouldn't have been an internal vote only for Billy Kelleher contested the nomination in order to oppose the sole endorsement by MM.
Thanks but not going to bother listening to a repeat.
It's a fair point, yes, outside of areas where SD and PBP have a presence the left voters would likely either suck it up or vote for FF/FG as an anti-hard-left vote. I think your comment about any party expecting to lose votes once walking into govt buildings doesn't extend to FF and FG as everybody knows what to expect from them at this stage
Unless there is an obvious successor, which right now there isn't, I'd say this is what will happen.
FF and FG still lose votes (including some in 2024), it's just that SF so far hasn't been able to fully capitalise on that.
I heard him on with David McCullagh. It was a soft enough interview but he certainly didn't sound like he was going anywhere.
In 2024 FF and FG combined were up 13 seats on 2020, although I do accept the number of TDs overall did increase substantially. I still don't think there was much capitalising that SF could have done though
Cynthia Ni Mhurchu on RTE at one o clock, was fairly scathing of MM and the FF process or lack of it for selecting a presidential candidate, apparently she wanted to run herself
But that's the point. FF and to a lesser extent FG won most of the extra seats, despite their FPV's declining slightly. Normally where there are extra seats to go round you would expect the main opposition party to pick up all or most of them.
If memory serves there was some non-story bad news getting released by the usual anti-SF media at the time. Happens with a lot of our elections in fairness
Cynthia Ní Mhurchú says Taoiseach told everyone in July that a decision wldnt be made till Sept She sent a 2 page doc to Taoiseach on 26th August saying why she could run & win Presidency but by then he said Jim Gavin's candidacy was at an advanced stage.
https://www.rte.ie/radio/radio1/clips/22569321/
She could have still entered the contest…
She might have had a better chance of winning than Gavin. It was almost an open goal for FF after FG selected Humphreys. SF hadn't made its decision to back Connolly at that stage, I think.
The ones that come to mind were Brian Stanley's departure and the fact that a former press officer charged with a child abuse offence had attended an event at Stormont where the First Minister was present.
But I'm sure that wasn't the 'non-story' you were talking about.
FS Spent 3 weeks checking on the tenant and the Gavin's financial issues with the flat, had to check out the journalists version too…
Haven't heard about either of those big stories since in fairness
Even now, I still don't quite know why Gavin wanted to run for President.
And they never squared that circle of Jim saying he's not a politician, but getting asked "then why are you running for FF?"
The reason is probably the money and the prestige. Salary of 250k minimum ( actual rate is nearer 350k but MD did not accept it all). A lot of you're expenses are picked up accommodation, meals for official functions etc. No heating, electricity or phone bills. Technically you could sell your PPR and pocket it tax free
Most presidents serve two terms so 3.5 million in warnings potentially. After tgat tge prestige and you get to waffle like MD about your personal preferences.
Would say MM is saying to himself I am some idiot. It was his for the taking, it is ironic but not running has endangered his leadership of FF and shortened it
Didn't FG approach Gavin about running for them in a General Election previously? Despite his substantial achievements in the GAA and maybe it's just me but I don't see anything in Gavin that would make me vote him? Yes I know some would vote for him because of his name and achievements but after that what else is there? Then again an ex-jockey got elected as an MEP.
FG approached Gavin about running in the Euros. Perhaps Martin saw Gavin as his mini-me and wanted him to be a one term president so that he,Martin, could then be the FF candidate next time after Chambers succeeded him as leader.
Still believe that his appointment to Chair the Citizens Assembly and the North East Inner City were Martin setting him up for this run.
Martin on the radio said he met Gavin through the Citizens Assembly,.. he appointed him.
Don't forget the massive pension…
That is why I never vote for a president who is young. I did once Mary Robinson, now I want an old president
John Lee of the Irish Mail on Sunday says that Deirdre Gillane was told of concerns over Jim Gavin's failure to repay a tenant's money https://extra.ie/2025/12/14/news/micheal-martin-jim-gavin-rent-scandal
The Taoiseach’s Chief of Staff, Deirdre Gillane, told the inquiry team she was told, on September 5, of concerns over Mr Gavin’s failure to repay a tenant who was owed €3,300.
but he mentioned the figure of 3.3k that wasn't known to FS at the time. https://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/fionnan-sheahan-fianna-fail-and-me-that-phonecall-and-the-stack-of-dominoes-that-led-to-downfall-of-jim-gavin/a501088214.html
In the short phone conversation with Ms Gillane, we didn’t go into any detail because I wasn’t in a position to do so. The tenant did not want to go public or get dragged in to a political row, so his name was not referenced, out of respect for his wishes.The €3,300 figure of overpaid rent was not known to me at that stage, so that wasn’t mentioned either.
In the short phone conversation with Ms Gillane, we didn’t go into any detail because I wasn’t in a position to do so. The tenant did not want to go public or get dragged in to a political row, so his name was not referenced, out of respect for his wishes.
The €3,300 figure of overpaid rent was not known to me at that stage, so that wasn’t mentioned either.
which allowed Martin to whine…
The Triple Lock debate is being framed as if Ireland is somehow “handing our sovereignty” to Russia, China or the US, but that suggestion misses the point. Firstly on my own stance, I have backed Michael Martin here recently over the presidential election and calls to oust him, that does not, however, mean I back every decision including and specifically relating to the triple lock decision.
While my position has been to stop the calls of the far left destabilising and dismantling the NATO framework and affect global events outside of Ireland, I do not however ascribe to Michael Martins jump in logic from there to let’s disown the triple lock because of Russia. My position has always been very clear, we should not let our own internal struggles expand out across the globe and cause political shocks and wars including Gaza and any involvement we did or did not have there.
I still support Michael Martin but his ability to dance around topics and misrepresent peoples positions who were defending the Western establishments position while not advocating for Ireland to take part in that position, is nimble if not misrepresentation. I will give him the benefit of the doubt if I believed for one second he is pro western establishment and not doing a contrarian stance for FF to cover both positions as they usually do. I will continue to support Michael Martin but want to distance my own stance from that of abolishing the triple lock.
Billy kelliher on the Examiner today insisting that he would have won if nominated for the race.
In previous times ff were a big enough party for the discontent to be sidelined, but if martin is going to be replaced momentum to oust him soon hasn't dissipated.
Actually, I take that back, I came in to edit the post and leave this note- he was not taking both positions he was trying to help people like me and be pro western but to his detriment. Michael should stay on. That’s not to take anything away from Kelleher who has his own strengths. He is taking the traditional FF position. Martin was brave to try and move things forward but populism might win out.
sage Michael O'Leary gives his 2c
“I do not think Micheál Martin will still be Taoiseach in July when Ireland begins its presidency [of the EU]. More pressure will come on with the two by-elections. Lose them and the writing will be on the wall.” https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/michael-oleary-interview-were-going-to-go-after-micheal-martin-because-hes-useless/a2110456229.html
“I do not think Micheál Martin will still be Taoiseach in July when Ireland begins its presidency [of the EU]. More pressure will come on with the two by-elections. Lose them and the writing will be on the wall.”
https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/michael-oleary-interview-were-going-to-go-after-micheal-martin-because-hes-useless/a2110456229.html
Who does the billionaire want to be leader?
