Yeah fair point, I will edit the post. The answer is I missed that pass.
I wonder who Ireland will be targeting ? Maybe we are going for a fast game against a big pack and that is why he is picking Sam.
the debate the the Irish media relentlessly bring up to fill their airtime / podcasts and paper.
The media will talk about whatever people want to hear; judging by the amount of discussion the 10 jersey gets on this board, the fans are pretty relentless too.
I think it's fair to say that Crowley got the bum deal by playing against NZ while Prendergast got Australia, but such is life. Either way, we're going to find out a lot more about Prendergast on Saturday (if he is in fact picked) and that's all we should be focusing on right now. It doesn't matter if we lose, so long as we learn something from it.
If we are competitive, see a reasonable display from the 10, maintain a functional lineout and if Hansen can pass a tougher test at FB, I'll call that a win regardless of the actual result.
Farrell obviously has a deeply held conviction that the core group of players from 2023 have a real chance in 2027 and that this group are best supplemented by Leinster players. 11 of the same 15 from the New Zealand game in 23 will likely start on Saturday, over two years later. Two of the changes from that day are due to retirement; Sexton and O'Mahony, Keenan is due to a current injury and Ryan was injured for the 2023 game. Fans from other provinces who expect this to change and see promising players from their team get a chance in a meaningful test are going to get disappointed again and again.
Lets look at those tries for the Aus game as it was most recent (the Japan game doesn't really do Crowley any favours anyway, we were noticeably better in the second half)
In addition to irelandrover's point, it's also worth mentioning we had 57% lineout success in the first half, but 100% in the 2nd. That's obviously significant and part of the context.
Farrell's job isn't to placate fans from any given province, it's to win games of rugby. The NZ game isn't exactly a long time ago in the career of a rugby player or the lifecycle of a team.
Since the NZ game you mention I'd look at it as we've brought through, developed, or confirmed all the following are proper options for Ireland:
TOB, Crowley, Casey, Joe McCarthy (was in the 23 for NZ but very green), Baird, Paddy McCarthy, Prendergast. And maybe I've forgotten someone.
Further to that, the NZ team from that 2023 QF was as follows:
B Barrett; Jordan, Ioane, J Barrett, Fainga'anuku; Mo'unga, Smith; De Groot, Taylor, Lomax, Retallick, S Barrett, Frizell, Cane (capt), Savea.
Crossed out have retired or gone to Japan. Bolded are still starting regularly for NZ. Italicised seem to have dropped down the pecking order for them or fallen away as a purely selection decision. It's two one players, and I'm not even sure about Lomax because he was their first choice TH all through last season so he could be just injured.
(edit - Lomax is injured, switched him to bold because he would be there).
So can you tell us please, what exactly do you want? How many players is an acceptable number for an international team to turn over in 2 years? What would your XV for this weekend be?
I'll be very happy to. In fact I hope I have to. But I'll still call it as I see it. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, and that'll be a good thing.
I will still support whichever one man team gets picked. Sam or Jack either way they will have their hands pretty full taking on this SA team all on their own. Give it a rest lads, both are ok and will do fine if selected and neither will be the winning or losing of this game or any other game.
Ireland by 4 followed by 6 months of SA fans tears.
I'd actually say the only place it isn't been done is back row and centre. I can see the logic in centre as stability there when giving the new 10s time makes sense. Lots of wings tried over the last two years. Full back has also seen rotation. Front row also has a lot of players there given time.
"Changes only happening because of injury and retirement" is an old fallacy that is constantly thrown out in irish rugby. The fact is innjuries and reirements are part of the constant churrn of the team. If we still had Sexton at 10, there would be much more scope for change at 12 and 13 etc etc. If, for example, Sheehan and Kelleher been at retirement age and packed it in after the world cup, then we'd have Gus McCArthy starting and it would be much harder to give Paddy such a high profile start las week. If we just threw out whoever was the young up and comer at every position then no one would go to these gaems and Irish rugby would be bankrupt in a few years. There's a balance to be found. As I've said many times on here in the last few weeks, I'm not sure we have the balance quiet right so far this cycle but a decent result Saturday with good performances frrom TOB, Mac, Baird and Paddy being trusted with real minutes and I'll feel pretty good about things.
If all of those were to happen and whoever starts at 10 has a really strong game then I'll be in full on "We are peaking too early" mode 🤣
As the poster themselves say, "you can draw your own conclusions"
Seems like the team will be
Porter, Sheehan, Furlong, Beirne, Ryan, Baird, Doris, Van der Flier
JGP, Prendergast, Lowe, Aki, Ringrose, O'Brien, Hansen
Even at centre, McCloskey has (apparently) overtaken Aki and Henshaw at 12. He's not young but he's playing very well and could well be an option come the RWC. And of course we capped another new guy in the centre in this series.
In the back-row, we've seen Baird emerge as the (hopefully) long-term six, he's probably been our best player in this series.
We will always have gradual evolution rather than sweeping changes, that doesn't mean change isn't happening.
Bench? My guess:
McCarthy, Kelleher, Clarkson, Conan, Timoney, Casey, Crowley, Farrell
I'd rather Prendergast ahead of Timoney though
Against England last week, New Zealand only started 7 players from the 1/4 final. More than half the team is different.
Indeed, we can conclude Crowley was absolutely rubbish against NZ and significantly worse than SP against Japan and Aus.
Crowley was good when he came on vs Aus. Not as good as Prendergast had been, but he performed well.
Now, if you want to frame that as "significantly worse", we can indeed draw our own conclusions.
To be fair to Farrell, I think we're seeing more change in this set of AI's than we did this time last year, and that's a positive thing (where last year I thought he was far too conservative).
Their team is considerably worse than 2023 though. So mass change is not necessarily good
Springbok team to face Ireland in Dublin:
15 Damian Willemse (DHL Stormers) – 47 caps, 66 pts (6t, 9c, 4p, 2dg) 14 Canan Moodie (Vodacom Bulls) – 20 caps, 40 pts (8t) 13 Jesse Kriel (Canon Eagles) – 86 caps, 100 pts (20t) 12 Damian de Allende (Wild Knights) – 95 caps, 55 pts (11t) 11 Cheslin Kolbe (Tokyo Sungoliath) – 48 caps, 126 pts (21t, 3c, 5p) 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu (DHL Stormers) – 17 caps, 137 pts (6t, 34c, 13p) 9 Cobus Reinach (DHL Stormers) – 48 caps, 90 pts (18t)
8 Jasper Wiese (Urayasu D-Rocks) – 41 caps, 10 pts (2t) 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (Toyota Verblitz) – 94 caps, 70 pts (14t) 6 Siya Kolisi (captain, Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 101 caps, 70 pts (14t) 5 Ruan Nortje (Vodacom Bulls) – 16 caps, 0 pts 4 Eben Etzebeth (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 139 caps, 35 pts (7t) 3 Thomas du Toit (Bath) – 31 caps, 5 pts (1t) 2 Malcolm Marx (Kubota Spears) – 86 caps, 135 pts (27t) 1 Boan Venter (Edinburgh) – 7 caps, 5 pts (1t)
Replacements:
16 Johan Grobbelaar (Vodacom Bulls) – 6 caps, 0 pts 17 Gerhard Steenekamp (Vodacom Bulls) – 14 caps, 5 pts (1t) 18 Wilco Louw (Vodacom Bulls) – 27 caps, 5 pts (1t) 19 RG Snyman (Leinster) – 49 caps, 15 points (3t) 20 Kwagga Smith (Shizuoka Blue Revs) – 61 caps, 55 pts (11t) 21 Andre Esterhuizen (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 27 caps, 20 pts (4t) 22 Grant Williams (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 27 caps, 35 pts (7t) 23 Manie Libbok (Kintetsu Liners) – 27 caps, 145 pts (2t, 48c, 13p)
too many japenese based players. we'll walk this easy !!!
Mad that 9 of their 23 are based in Japan. You'd think it would affect their game, not playing to the higher standard of the URC on a consistent basis.
And not a single one in France.
It suits them very well - the Japanese season only starts in December and ends in June, so even guys like Malcolm Marx, who played a relatively full season last year domestically, hasn't had any club games since June.
Pieter Steph du Toit hasn't played a domestic game since 5th May 2024 (566 days by the time the game kicks off on Saturday).
TBF most of the others played relatively full schedules in Japan, but it almost certainly isn't taking as much of a toll on their bodies as playing Top14 or URC would.
Nothing to be overly worried about in that team. SFM is the biggest concern, he is absolutely dynamite, arguably the best OH in the game currently.
The Springbok players always just raise their game when playing for SA.
Even when they're based in Europe they have a habit of phoning it in a bit for their club.
15. Mack Hansen (Corinthians/Connacht)(29) 14. Tommy O’Brien (Blackrock College/Leinster)(5) 13. Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster)(68) 12. Bundee Aki (Galwegians/Connacht)(67) 11. James Lowe (Leinster)(42) 10. Sam Prendergast (Lansdowne/Leinster)(12) 9. Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster)(45)
1. Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster)(78) 2. Dan Sheehan (Lansdowne/Leinster)(34) 3. Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster)(81) 4. James Ryan (UCD/Leinster)(75) 5. Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster)(64) 6. Ryan Baird (Dublin University/Leinster)(32) 7. Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster)(74) 8. Caelan Doris (St Mary’s College/Leinster)(54)(captain)
16. Rónan Kelleher (Lansdowne/Leinster)(42) 17. Paddy McCarthy (Dublin University/Leinster)(3) 18. Finlay Bealham (Corinthians/Connacht)(53) 19. Cian Prendergast (UCD/Connacht)(7) 20. Jack Conan (Old Belvedere/Leinster)(54) 21. Craig Casey (Shannon/Munster)(23) 22. Jack Crowley (Cork Constitution/Munster)(29) 23. Tom Farrell (Lansdowne/Munster)(1).
Ringrose and JVDF return. Big decision is Tom Farrell in the 23 shirt, and Cian Prendergast stays in the 23 ahead of Henderson.
Yeah, this is it really.
I really dislike Rassie and the way he operates, but it's impossible not to respect just how good he is at his job. He is world class at connecting with his players, getting the best out of them and generally motivating them. Their mental strength is off the charts.
Not having a lock on the bench and yet again picking a centre at 23 is clearly a gamble. Not delighted with having Baird cover lock against the Boks.
In the event of Aki getting injured, I wonder who'd cover 12; you'd presumably have an option of Farrell, Ringrose or Crowley. I wonder if we could see the latter there.
