I don't really believe in it either. But I also think it is something that, like it or not, ends up weighing on sportspeople. Think of it like our inability to beat NZ until Chicago, and then we have a roughly 50/50 track record since.
I dont either. For first few world cups we just were crap. It's only 2003 on that we had any sort of OK team.
The thing is too, I'm not going to see winning a QF as some great prize if we then go and lose the semi.
What stings about 2023 is we had a real chance to win that World Cup, never mind the QF. I don't know when or if we'll ever have the chance again.
2011, 15 and 23 are the ones that got away imo. Kidney wasted the talent of the 2011, they were good enough to get to the final. If the wheels hadn't fallen off in 2015, I think we beat that Argentina team and have a strong shot at the final. 2023, we win the whole thing of we beat NZ imo. South Africa barely beat a NZ team done to 14 men, and the pool game was only as close as it was because of our lineout implosion.
Even in 2015, without the injuries, I still don't think we could have laid a glove on that AB's team. The best team I've ever seen.
We probably wouldn't have had the depth even in 2023, but we certainly wouldn't have feared that poor Argentina side in a SF or South Africa in a final.
That's just your opinion, so firstly at least have the humility & self realisation to state it as such in your post maybe !?
MOD EDIT
There's a lot to support my contention that Ireland's top XV (& 23) were a bit flat & over played versus New Zealand at RWC23 imho. Firstly Rassie Erasmus even did a table showing how rotated & less played players from sides like SA were versus over played sides like Ireland, by the RWC QF stage!! Google it maybe!!!
I even posted this up the thread for posters such as yourself to perhaps consider before typing your usual mantra.
Secondly, NZ faced a minnow (Uruguay) with a seconds squad the week before facing Ireland, before that Italy & before that Namibia, so they had 2 weeks full run in with a fighting fit & fresh top 23 ready & primed to face Ireland.
Ireland on the other hand faced Scotland, who they felt they had to respect by playing their top 23, and so played all their front liners including 38 yo Johnny Sexton, POM & the other hugely overplayed back rows & front rows, and other players who in an ideal world would have been kept fresher to face NZ in 7 days, imho.
Thirdly, Ireland performed like they were flat & a bit jaded imho. Going 13 -0 down within 20 minutes in a RWC QF is typical sign of a side slightly off the pace due to fatigue. There were other telltale signs also e.g. Sexton was gassed by the last 15mins, Beirne had literally & figuratively run himself to a stand still, other Irish players were out on their feet also. This wasn't the first time an Irish side had appeared so flat footed & fatigued at a RWC QF either, as we're unfortunately far too accustomed to seeing over played, jaded Irish squads trying to rouse themselves to compete with fresher opposition by QF stage imho.
At least the new RWC format may assist in other sides also playing a full match 23 the week before a RWC QF. That will help squads like Ireland who've always done this regardless...
I think 2023 was by far our best performance in a QF in the pro era (typically before that we've gone out with barely firing a shot) but I do believe our record is a monkey on our back that potentially affects us psychologically.
I remember looking at this before (see below); in 2023, I think we looked nervous initially and then, to our credit, came roaring back into it.
I'm not sure we've ever even been ahead in a QF?
2011 was a strange one. We weren't coming into that World Cup in particularly good form but that Australia result really seemed to energised the squad.
Ultimately we had a decent squad that was poorly coached and we paid for it. It's made we kept on with Kidney for as long as we did after that.
What I said was a fact - the 23 that took the field against NZ had played less minutes in the preceding three weeks than their counterparts. Google that yourself before you start accusing other people of arrogance & stupidity.
Ireland were coming into that game full of confidence - unbeaten in the group, no material injury issues in the squad. NZ were coming in having been already beaten by the hosts France in Round 1. The notion our players were jaded and theirs weren't is utter nonsense.
Could we simplify the quarter final losses as just sh1ting the bed....repeatedly since 03
Not really. We didn't particularly **** the bed in 03, we just lost to a better team (albeit by more than we should have). We were just a bad team coming into the World Cup in 07 and 19 for myriad reasons. 15 was a major injury issue that unfortunately undermined our game plan. 11 and 23 were the closest to what you'd call **** the bed and at least in 23 we put up a big fight. But that opening 20 minutes was a killer.
How minutes had they played the week before facing Ireland!?
Freshness is a function of time/ recency also. That's obvious isn't it!?
Fact is that NZ 23 had a 2 week window to prepare beat Ireland with a fighting fresh, rested & fully rotated squad. They then utilised this by going 13-0 up early on, doing things like scoring tries off first phase ball from 50 m out and outlasting the exhausted Irish players to the 80 minute mark. In comparison, Ireland who were probably the better side having won a test series in NZ a year previously, looked flat & a bit jaded. That was all evident from even a cursory look at the QF match imho.
You are correct but just breaking the glass ceiling and winning a quarter or even a last 16 in 24 team format will be a boost to other world cups as it means we have won a knock out game for first time. And if we had a semi and lost we'd still have a 3rd place playoff. To play.
I have never seen anyone try to explain away a poor opening 20 minutes by fatigue rather than not being mentally switched on. It would make some vague sense if discussing the final 20.
No professional sportsperson is coming into a match fatigued after having played 50 odd minutes in the previous 3 weeks. It is a ridiculous notion.
Basically, though I'm not sure how much winning the R16 will help with that. At the end of the day, every single time Ireland get to the World Cup QF this is the overwhelming narrative and that has to have some kind of impact, even if marginal.
Even, the clue is in your own post.... Do you not see a link between 'not being fully mentally switched on', as you put it, & fatigue perhaps!? No!?
Because any top level coach, or sports physiologist, will tell you, there is a massive link between the two.
P.s. Rassie Erasmus went as far as publishing a table at the RWC to show how he had kept his players fresh for the fight in the knock out stages by rotating & resting his players, versus sides like Ireland who had overplayed & fatigued their players by the end of the group stages. I mean all ye have to do is maybe learn from what a RWC winning coach is trying to tell ye perhaps!?
A professional rugby player is not going to be fatigued going into a match with the level of minutes they had over the previous 2 months, or more precisely the previous 3 weeks. There was nothing whatsoever unusual about it - it would be lower than what they'd expect in a 6N tournament.
I could not care less what Erasmus did. He is a professional **** stirrer.
Well OK, we'll simply have to agree to disagree so.
Essentially, I contend that that Irish squad of 23 who lined out versus NZ by that QF, were relatively fatigued & a bit jaded versus the fully rotated & rested, fighting fit NZ squad, and that this played out in that QF also. Some here disagree, that's fine, it's a discussion forum after all...
For sure, no one was beating that NZ team, they were absolutely stacked. Do think we could've beaten Argentina and Australia though.
New Zealand's squad against Ireland had played an average of 37 mins the week before, whereas Ireland's squad v New Zealand had played an average of 44 mins. NZ's players had also played the week before that, when Ireland had the week off.
So, New Zealand's players had played an average of 79.7 minutes in the preceding three weeks, whereas Ireland's tally was still just 44 mins.
So, if freshness is a function of time / recency - where is the evidence of New Zealand being materially fresher (if at all) than Ireland?
If Ireland were so fatigued, then how come we were the team who finished the game stronger? We were the team who looked like if the game went on another 10 minutes then we would have won it.
Rassie can be full of **** too tbh - they had the luxury of knowing they were qualified more or less after beating Scotland in their first game. We didn't.
Despite that - he named substantially the same team against Scotland, Ireland, France, England and New Zealand.
The team that faced Ireland had one injury enforced change from the team that played Scotland. The team that started the RWC Final had two changes from the team we beat in the pool.
He had the luxury of resting some front liners against Romania and Tonga because of the way the fixtures went - if we'd rotated heavily for those games, then we would have had players coming in cold against South Africa in Round 3.
Ireland’s problems are mental prep, not exhaustion or rotation or even depth, frankly. Depth might well come into it in a semi or a final but it’s not been an issue thus far in a WC, AFs lack of faith in Crowley notwithstanding. A serious example was pouring so much into beating SA in a nothing pool game last time. Everyone reacted like we’d won the whole thing and I expect that inside the group it was also a bit like that. It was a good win but we’d have been in the same position if we’d lost. I doubt SA or NZ or even England would invest so much in a game with such low stakes.
'I doubt SA or NZ or even England would invest so much in a game with such low stakes.'
Seriously? I must say I can't agree with that in the slightest
South Africa went all out to beat us - no matter what they would subsequently claim. They were at full strength (bar injuries).
NZ equally went all out to beat France in the opener.
I don't really know in a tournament how you do otherwise - you risk sending the absolute wrong message to the dressing room if you're not trying to win every game.
A squad named for the Spain game:
Forwards (16):
Lee Barron (Dublin University/Munster) James Culhane (UCD/Leinster) Sam Illo (Buccaneers/Connacht) Sean Jansen (Connacht) Diarmuid Mangan (UCD/Leinster) David McCann (Banbridge/Ulster) John McKee (Old Belvedere/Leinster) Michael Milne (UCD/Munster) Darragh Murray (Buccaneers/Connacht) Evan O’Connell (Young Munster/Munster) Tom O’Toole (Ballynahinch/Ulster) Ruadhan Quinn (Old Crescent/Munster) Alex Soroka (Clontarf/Leinster) Tom Stewart (Ballynahinch/Ulster)(captain) Alex Usanov (Clontarf/Leinster) Scott Wilson (Queen’s University Belfast/Ulster)
Backs (12):
Robert Baloucoune (Enniskillen/Ulster) Shayne Bolton (Connacht) Harry Byrne (UCD/Leinster) Nathan Doak (Banbridge/Ulster) Cathal Forde (Corinthians/Connacht) Fintan Gunne (Terenure College/Leinster) Dan Kelly (Munster) Michael Lowry (Banbridge/Ulster) Ben Murphy (Clontarf/Connacht) Jack Murphy (Clontarf/Ulster) Jude Postlethwaite (City of Armagh/Ulster) Zac Ward (Ballynahinch/Ulster)
Broken down by position:
LHPs: Michael Milne, Alex Usanov
Hookers: Tom Stewart, Lee Barron, John McKee
THPs: Tom O'Toole, Scott Wilson, Sam Illo
Locks: Diarmuid Mangan, Darragh Murray, Evan O'Connell,
Back Row: Alex Soroka, Ruadhan Quinn, David McCann, Sean Jansen, James Culhane
Scrum Halves: Nathan Doak, Fintan Gunne, Ben Murphy
Out Halves: Harry Byrne, Jack Murphy
Centres: Cathal Forde, Dan Kelly, Jude Postlethwaite
Back Three: Robert Baloucoune, Shayne Bolton, Michael Lowry, Zac Ward
Break down by province:
Ulster: 10
Munster: 5
Leinster: 7
Connacht: 6
Most surprising guys to miss out for me: James Hume, Hugh Gavin, Hugh Cooney. Would guess Edwin Edogbo might be involved if he recovers from his HIA (or might get a cap for the full international team v Japan that day hopefully).
for the 2023 QF, i think Joe Schmidt being involved in the NZ coaching setup was massive difference and a much bigger factor than fatigue/ mental preparedness etc,. As much as he had been gone for four years at that stage, he still had worked with a large number of the players and being such a detail-oriented coach, he probably still knew these players almost inside-out. The Jordan try off the lineout is a almost a reverse of Stockdale's try in 2018 in that it was a perfectly designed move to exploit a small weakness that JS saw, im sure there were other examples of this in the game too but thats the one that sticks out (still cant bring myself to watch the full game back)
Strong team and Ulster dominant
Is Ireland XV what they're calling Ireland A now? If it's not the designated second team they could select Hurley-Langton.
Hume is a capped international and a very experienced provincial player, he may be in the same category as Coombes?
