I don’t know where it is going to end.
And the benefits to farmers? farmers are eventually starting to see a return for their work at long last. At €3.40 a kg no one made money only the factory’s and supermarkets
The danger for beef farmers Is pressure on costs will increase. The contractors, vets agri merchants, feed merchants etc will all increase prices. Any subsequent price drop then may put you back to behind where you were. The risk is especially acute for suckler farmers where they have nobody to pass any of a loss back onto.
The finisher will drop his price to the store producer, the store producer back to the weanling/calf breeder.
In general finishers will be little better off as we take a margin and must replace to stay in the business unless we decide to exit the business and that carries risk as well.
Whatever the external reasons (Ukraine, etc.), fertiliser importers and merchants were not shy about putting up prices here due to strong milk and beef prices.
They might have done it anyway, but they didn't give it a second thought when farm-gate prices were good.
As you've said before, 'high prices cure high prices'.
I fully agree with what you’re saying, you can already see things are creeping up. Trying to buy back stores to replace the ones you sell won’t be easy. At the moment with beef prices going well the calf to beef system is looking like the best,I’m lucky enough I have purchased Calfs the past two years so I have to buy back less than half the stores that I would usually have to buy in October. Calfs haven’t risen to the exstent of beef or store prices.
Worse case scenario what do you think that they could drop back to in maybe a year or two? Or in the Autumn
biggest risk is to suckler farmers 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
more money in my pocket anyways
If you are not a primary producer of calves, like a suckler or dairy man, your margin in a calf to beef or beef finishing system is what's left after you've sold your stock and bought back replacements. The price of beef tracks with the price of the animal you're buying back. As long as you maintain your margin, you'd make a load of money on the rise and lose it on the fall. It will generally balance out and the cycle will continue. It's good to see the suckler men getting paid properly for really quality stock. The dairy men are winning again as usual too but it's a tough life so you'd want to be paid well for it. Friesian cattle making outrageous money at the moment. They will be the first to fall hard once the bubble pops as they have no breed bonus to soften it and will be crucified when the grid prices come back into play.
Worst outcome would be a few of the smaller meat processor will not be able to compete & go out of business ( you know the lads who take out of spec cattle or only killing a few 100 a week) then we will be left with 4 or 5 processors and they will have totally control. They will stick the boot in only doing deals with some supplies and the whole thing ends up going like the chicken & pig meat market..
It's about making sure these outlets stay a float with cashflow is the biggest concern at the moment
True. You would be worried sending stock to the small processor now.
@kk.man that is it exactly beef prices have risen by over 50% in the last 6 months. It would take a lot of cash to keep some of the smaller outfits going especially if they are working on 60 days credit with their customers and paying farmers within a few days of slaughter.
And worse than that maybe tied into a contract negotiated 6 months ago. Heard that one of the Lidl and Aldi contracts are due for renewal in April
Shows where the real power is in the food supply chain. Supermarkets dictate all and can make or break anyone supplying them.
And what do aldi or Lidl do? Where can you purchase beef elsewhere and I don’t see to much of it left on the shelves
the big 3 all have contracts ending 31/3
Did we bye pass 8 heading straight for 9
Might stretch to 12 before the dangerous descent.
The journal seem well behind the news regarding prices.
ALDI & LIDL will bring it in from South America and then sell if of as Ballydehob Irish beef to try and fool the people & good old Larry will probably help them if the is a twist in it for him....
Mallon has Lidl sown up.
.'the big 3 all have contracts ending 31/3
Did we bye pass 8 heading straight for 9'
UK sales are based on volume and a margin of AHDB price.
Irish sales are on volume plus a margin on Bord Bia benchmark price.
Hence the factories never loses.
Heard tonight 9e is on the way.
Heard similar tonight. Lads aren’t settling for €8 and numbers are to get tight as we head into April.
That was always going to happen as people sold cattle earlier and bord Bia predicted a shortage of cattle for the first two quarters of this year. So when should numbers go back the factory’s way?
I know supermarkets contracts are up but so too is the price of beef in Europe so there isn’t an other alternative
have a few cull cows I'm fattening was thinking of selling them in a about 2-3 weeks but do you think I should hold on for a little longer? I have no issue with slurry tanks are empty and lots of good silage so could easily hold on to them with no issues, would just need another tonne of feed.
Always pays to feed stock when price is going up.
Everything is starting at €8, I was talking to an agent that was told bid €8 flat for fresisans and whatever you do don’t leave them behind, and all sort of deals are been done he said
When would be an optimal time to keep them too, when are prices expected to peek? hold them until early may just before the silage season starts?
Don’t think anyone could predict when the peak will be and there is no point thinking anyone will know. I was talking to a man last week that kills a lot of good continental cattle. He got €7.50 for 20 cattle. Had he waited till this week he’d have got €8. He is roughly €4500 worse off for the sake of a week. I’m in the same boat only for a larger amount of cattle. Will I wait now for €8.50, €9 or more. Or will I wait too long for them to drop.
Traditionally the end of June would bring a price drop, but this year icould be the exception
If anyone has a number for an agent in North Kilkenny can they PM me.
Can hurt to shop around.
15 Hereford and angus bullocks just comming fit here at the moment all under 30 months and QA .First offer of €9 flat from an agent and I'll let them off
And when they reach their peak will they hold at that do you think?
And if they drop how fast will the drop be?
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