I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
FF did it in 1997. It didn't rehabilitate him.
I was responding to a poster who claimed
there is noreal and viable option at present.
He doesn't seem to know much about politics in fairness if he thinks SF are in govt
Unless one of the other 2 big parties opens the negotiating door with her those negotiations are unlikely to be to form a govt. More likely she is looking for Taoiseach votes from SD and Labour akin to how PBP backed her in 2020
He will definitely get a new extension.
I can't believe he is leading the negotiations for the Independents.
No , but by having both the SDs and Labour beside them on the opposition benches makes it harder for SF to claim to be "the" opposition. Labour and SDs will have their "shadow" ministers as well diluting the SF talking points.
SF are more likely to lose support to Labour/SD than they are to FF/FG so politically having all three of them vying for air-time in opposition works in favour of FF and FG.
Not yet but MLMD is negotiating at present
It's all very odd if you ask me. A simple redline, 'we won't negotiate with him' would have been the ethical way to deal with it. Sitting down with him in the first place is rehabilitation of a kind.
No. He won't be part of the government. He might have an agreement we don't hear about and will vote for them, but from the outside. He'll still sit in opposition benches is my guess.
Considering their defence of McGahon was no criminal conviction; and Lowry has one - no.
I know you want them to so you can criticise them for it, but they won't.
That said, they shouldn't even be negotiating with him, FF have done it before too.
I wonder. Will FG seek to rehabilitate him and his reputation? They tried to sneak McGahon in under the radar after all, until it blew up in their faces.
Are Sinn Féin in government now?
Yeah but that resignation was because of his lies about a rival candidate, he's surely learnt his lesson on slander by now
He knows not to even ask for it. Whatever he gets will be kept very quiet except in the run up to the next election.
There is no merit in connecting ports by motorway. Almost no port traffic in this country comes in at one port to leave by another.
The N20 traffic is not higher because so many people divert via other routes because safety record of that road is so bad. Which is why TII are progressing the M20 scheme.
The same cannot be said for Cork-Waterford-Rosslare, which is why they are not building a motorway there
100%
A big reason Michael Martin prefers forming a government with Independents is to allow Labour and Soc Dems grow and develop in opposition. A proper Left option would benefit the country, there is noreal and viable option at present.
MLMD is a product of misogyny, not an opponent of it. I
’——- an alternative opposition with decent numbers ———‘. You left out one MINOR element is WITH AN AGREED PROGRAMME
Wil Lowry get a ministry given he has a key role in negotiations?
FG had a similar percentage drop from 2016 to 2020 and they're still around so stop with the Chicken Little act "the sky is falling"! Using terms like 'rapid decline' and 'categorically downwards' make you look foolish and sound hysterical. Fact is that parties FPV's fluctuate from one election cycle to the other. All 3 major parties have been in or around 20% for the past two elections now.
Wrong again mate! Funny how every media outlet and newspaper has all 3 parties with a decline in FPV but you keep insisting FG had an increase.
You are crowing about a decline in SF votes over a tiny period (2020 to 2024) to suit your narrative. Look back 15-20 years and tell me which party is on the up and which one is in decline.
Seats held:
2007 SF 4 FG 51
2011 SF 14 FG 76
2016 SF 23 FG 50
2020 SF 37 FG 35
2024 SF 39 FG 38
Btw, FG had a similar drop in FPV to SF's recent drop (from 2016 -2020 FG FPV dropped from 25.5% to 20.9%) and it cost them 15 seats. Now that was a disaster! SF's recent result is nothing close to that.
Also FG have held steady this time around so taking their 2020 result and trying to predict doom and gloom from it, like you're doing for SF, would have been futile.
But what if they were part of a good govt with SF, do you think their voters would take it out on them for delivering a government that was seen as competent and improved things like housing, health etc.? Of course if they didn't perform well voters would take it out on them, as they should with any bad government, regardless of party. Both parties would no doubt be heavily penalised by voters if the govt was a complete shambles and made everything a lot worse.
Where are you getting that we now have an alternative opposition with decent numbers for the first time in years ?
In 2020 the combined number of seats won by parties of the left (SF, Greens, Labour, SD and SPBP) was 66, with the number of seats won by the centre parties (FF, FG) 73,
2024, with with an increase of 14 Dail seats, the combined number of seats won by the same parties of the left are 65, while the combined number won by the same centre parties are 84.
With an increase in the number of seats, the parties of the left won 1 less, whereas the centre parties won 11 more.
SF seem to have a 20% baseline now, FG are slightly above that. FG must be due some time in opposition come 2029 (18 years in power at that point). I don't see SF falling away in any major way while in opposition, unless they repeat the latest scandals (the next GE could end up being very close to the locals/EU).
I do wonder if FF are heading back to being the party of government, they've really had an astonishing recovery since 2011.
Its sure trending that way!
Given that we have higher traffic numbers on existing motorways, perhaps it does?
https://trafficdata.tii.ie/publicmultinodemap.asp It is also not a motorway between Cork and Waterford, it would be a connection to Rosslare and the southern Atlantic seaboard. Parts of the N20 has similar traffic numbers to the N25 in parts, and a motorway is being built there.
So more of the same so? Not much has changed tbh.
This
Martin didn’t give O’Dea for any role over the past 5 years - never mind a ministry. There wasn’t even media speculation that he might be considered for something.
Hard to see any scenario where he’s considered for anything at this point. If he was 4-5 years younger he’d be a shout for Ceann Comhairle - but he’s 1) too safe a seat if standing for reelection and 2) at possibly 77 by the next election too much of a risk of a by-election in the next 2 election cycles
He will never be offered it. He had to resign the last time he was a minister. 72 now too. Only in politics for the craic.
That's a drop in the ocean to be fair
Willie isn't liked by many in FF so while he'd probably take health he'll never be offered it despite his vote getting abilities
Is it?
Based on boards predictions the government was dead
We had predictions from you and others for years now about what the people of Ireland thought about the government, SF was the future, blah blah blah
The same people now are making more predictions about the electorate and their opinions of FF and FG
Maybe its time to give it a rest because clearly you have no idea what is going on in Ireland and if maany really give a sh*t if the government is formed tomorrow or in Jan
I certainly couldn't care less. Time to enjoy Christmas season
