I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Yet they managed to get more seats than FG..again, even with the drop in first preference votes and being slightly lower than FG in this metric (FG 20.8 v SF 19.0).
First preferences don't tell the whole story, SF have obviously done much better on transfers than previously.
No, the difference is the number of candidates.
SF made a total balls of their 2020 strategy and left seats behind them. This is why a pretty significantly reduced vote did not translate to seat losses this time.
Seriously….FF and FG returned all the same old faces for years and years and it never seemed to be a problem. I'd suggest those you mentioned wouldn't have been voted in if the public has grown sick of them. On the other hand, all those who did lose their seats are the ones the public were clearly sick of.
I don't vote for SF but if I were advising them, I would suggest making Louise O'Reilly the leader. She knows her stuff, works very hard and is relatable. She is easy to like. I think female politicians are more honest and conscientious in general.
I find Pearse and Cullinane too shouty/boring and O'Broin is a broken record.
FG havevtge highest number of new faces with 20+
I agree here in the context of my belief that the political dynamic is still in flux here. Are we about to see a left alliance finally grow wings as part of that flux?
Early to say but it is on the lips of the main movers and I think we might.
Micheál Martin has handed FG the upper hand in negotiations. He singlehandedly put FF between a rock and a hard place by enthroning them pre the election and ruling out alternatives. Their vote is down on last election so there was no gain from ruling out coalitions.
There appears to be no self respecting FFers left, so I think they'll drink the soup FG offer here, make no mistake. The leader of the the 3rd largest party of the Dáil will be Taoiseach again.
To try and mitigate the negative affect they know that will have during the term of government and to give the electorate a cannon fodder target like they did the Greens, they will try to disrupt a left alliance by suckering Labour in again, not independents (that will be last chocie IMO)
Why in the middle of a housing crisis where we are struggling to build enough houses to even keep the status quo would you want developers to be "scared shitless"?
She's extremely capable Cluedo, she has a strong shop steward/union background too, so would be more than able to keep SF in shape and negotiate also.
She'd be my only contender
Real one's 😉 not pie in the sky ones
I give you mathematically possible... Is maths not a part of your reality?
I noticed Eoin O’Broin pop up on 6-1 yesterday evening. Looks like he’s finally come out of hiding. There wasn’t a peep out of him the past few weeks.
Fine Gael have undergone a deep refresh.
There were 10 Ministers of the Fine Gael government appointed in 2011, none of them are in the Dail now. Of the four other FG Ministers appointed later in that government, only one - Paschal Donohoe - remains in the Dail. So out of 14, only one remains. That is an incredible turnaround.
I think MLMD has proven in this cmpaign she is the most 'relatable' politician in the Dáil. Begrudgery won't allow some to give her kudos for that. I think her performance will allow it to be her decision if she stays or goes too. I agree O'Broin is not the man to be the public face of housing policy, he missed the trick of providing easy to grasp detail. He'd be much better in the background developing policy which I think they are developing a formidable hand in doing. Whether you agree with that policy or not.
Your maths rely on pie in the sky votes though, that will never be there
O'Broin was very visible during election I thought. Especially on radio, excuse the pun. Himself and that other gobdaw Darragh.
Like all the non ffg parties could form a government, that's mathematics right there but it's stupid
That's less stupid
You must have missed his debate with Daragh O'Brien on TV3 just prior to the election.
I don't doubt it. Always impressed me. She and some other strong ladies in the Dail will keep the 2 wafflers in FFG busy.
They weren't there on this occasion for sure but to say they will never be there, without the benefit of a working crystal ball or a TARDIS what you are saying is completely wrong
Don't get me wrong. I think MLMD is a very good leader for SF (the misogynists and bullies won't ever agree there) but if you see looking for a few leader then Louise O'Reilly is the future.
I am proud too that Galway West elected more women than men again. And we didn't even elect Seoige.
They might there right now in one of the alternative universes that might exist
Eh, 21/11 https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-41521862.html
25/11 https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/11/25/sinn-fein-plan-for-affordable-homes-will-meet-lending-requirements-o-broin-says/
25/11 https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/elections-2024/since-fianna-fail-and-darragh-obrien-took-over-the-housing-portfolio-homelessness-has-continued-to-rise-eoin-o-broin/a1401669119.html
27/11 and turns out to be right https://vote.sinnfein.ie/a-vote-for-fianna-fail-is-a-vote-for-simon-harris-in-government-eoin-o-broin/
and more
FF averaged approx 45% of the vote between 1927 & 1989 and as recently as 2007 they had 41%, their nadir was 2011 with 17.5%, they got just under 22% this time, they're no where near where they were and highly unlikely to ever be. They've 8 seats in Dublin even in the 2000s they had 16-18 seats in Dublin.
The public has grown tired of Pearse shouting, MLMD whinging and Cullinane and Ellis lurking menacingly in the background.
Cope harder blanch - aside from Dessie Ellis, all those TDs you named were poll toppers in their constituencies.
I believe Pearse Doherty attracted the highest FPV in the country
It's an easy one to work out. You can do it.
Well unfortunately I live in this universe
On the earlier point of FF being kingmaker's, if we want to use that term we should look at FG, they won't, but mathematically speaking they could decide to back a SF lead govt and that would throw quite the spanner in the works
Again, they won't, the 2 parties are too different policy wise but they are mathematically able to
They are very good at whipping up the local crowds.
Sure all the parties could bandy together to form a party of unity and love
🤣Think about it for a second, who's in the middle of a housing crisis? The people without houses. Who's in the best position to take advantage of this crisis?.............FFG's buddies! Record rents and record house prices, it's not a housing crisis for those making money off it.
Unbelievable from a poster trumpeting FG's 'refresh' 😁 Was I dreaming or did we not all watch Brand Harris go down in flames in one of the worst party campaigns in memory? The 'refresh' here in Monaghan seen the new FG TD get half of the departing FG incumbent's vote.
50% saying no thanks to the refreshing candidate.
