I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
He got called a pedophile non stop for the last five years from a lot of the far right types.
He didn't do a great job on the referendum but then no one in government (or Sinn Fein) really did. To be honest he should never have taken that ministry in the first place. No one could have predicted that it would end up with so many crises happening inside the brief but anything to do with immigration is always going to be divisive, and I think the Green party should try and stay away from divisive topics not related to the environment.
Roderic O'Gorman is a good man who worked very hard and did what he could in a very difficult job. I'm glad a lot of people in Dublin West recognised that even if many on here don't.
I tend to agree. I'm fairly sure she won't lead SF into the next GE but i think she'll stay a bit longer and move aside.
If I were in MM and FF shoes I would push for a government without this rotating Taoiseach, if they have 8-10 seats more than FG when this all shakes out then FG should suck it up and be happy with the Tanaiste role. If Simon Harris really wants to make a mark he should take Tanaiste and Minster for Health, FF keep housing and then between them they can hang their hats on those two tentpole items at the next election. FG, open childrens hospital, commission and start a new state of the art A&E and acute service centre for the mid-west, interim reopen A&E in ennis, nenagh. FF build houses and have a proper plan as to how people can afford them…bring Labour in and give them some lighter ministries. FF wont want FG doing what they did this time and dropping in a new leader as Taoiseach a few months out. Saying that Jack Chambers definately being lined up as a future FF leader and potential Taoiseach within FF.
Yet another mis-read by Fionnan Sheehan.
Remember he thought MLMD won the TV debate? Way off the mark, it actually helped win the election for Michael Martin.
Fionnan is not entertained by the result, but that's really not the point.
It all depends on how much FG really want power.
They have been in government for 14 years non stop, that is a long time.
There were suggestions in 2020, and I still think there are ongoing threads here, about FG stepping back and re-grouping then.
If FF are playing hardball because they have 10 or so more seats FG could say "grand off ye go and form a government with SF and others", knowing full well that that would be harder for FF to do and would have unpredictable outcomes if formed.
FG can then snipe from the opposition benches and (possibly) make hay the next time a GE comes around.
I don't think that will happen, I think a rotating Taoiseach will happen or FG will get a sweetener in ministers regardless of FF extra seat count.
SF totally inept could be a better summary
Apart from the fact that the data supports his theory, I suppose. FG finish third but are viewed as victors because of the pre election nudge and wink. If there were any real FFers left they'd be licking their wounds now, but amazingly MM handed them the whiphand. They have him by the short and curlies now.
Hell rub it up FF tbh.
I thought the exact same 🤣
Okay here's a graphic of indos I filched from politics.ie. Not sure are these already elected or some just likely or what but anyway
So you're FFG HQs looking to recruit a supporting cast 7-8 strong…
Obviously first you round up the usual suspects of HR brothers, Lowry, McGrath & Grealish
After that I think you have a choice between a right-wing cohort of Murphy, Toole and Nolan or a clutch of 'pragmatic progressives' in Canney, Moran, Harkin, possibly Heneghan
Pretty sure they wouldn't be signing up Healy anyway. Apart from his hard-left politics he looks like he'd be triggering a by-election before the first year of the government was out…
I think the problem is worse than inept.
I think much like Labour of old they have hit their peak. Their only hope of government now or ever is to take 30+ seats in with FF if FG ever opt out.
Canney & Moran were part of the 2016 Coalition. Barry Heneghan is Finian McGrath's successor who was also in that 2016 Govt. Add in Verona Murphy, Grealish, Harkin, Lowry and you're off to a good start.
Then you have Independent Ireland, and the rural independents (Healy Rae x2, McGrath, Nolan) if you want further reinforcements.
I don't agree that Mary Lou is SF's best communicator, she's full of clichéd talking points with no depth and is rarely across the detail of any policy position.
David Cullinane has a better grasp of detail for his area of responsibility and indeed beyond it - I heard him in a debate with both an FF and FG TD, and to be fair to him, he filleted them with his knowledge and detail on housing policy.
Not that I'd consider giving SF a vote any time soon, though 😁
Verona may still have an axe to grind with FG following her de-selection back in 2019 or thereabouts. She's not an option
Labour of old peaked at same FPV Sinn Fein have now. They never managed to sustain near that level on back to back electoral cycles.
They were also a long way off both the govt parties.
Labour have never come as close in seats or votes to both FF and FG, in 2011 they eclipsed FF but not close to FG.
Independents will continue to rise, as centre right voters tire of FFG, SF will stay similar unless a more credible left party arises (Will soc dem continue to grow, will labour be able to ditch the FG-lite status earned after 2011)
FF and FG will never see 35%+ FPV for either of them ever again
I'm convinced you start with HR brothers, Lowry, McGrath & Grealish as they are all out-and-out parish pump merchants with zero interest in influencing national policy. After that things might get a bit tricky. I wonder do Collins and co regret tying themselves to II as they are cut from largely the same cloth as the aforementioned
FG finished second in terms of FPVs.
They could also finish second on seats numbers. It looks like they will have the same number as Provisional Sinn Fein.
At present FS is a very balanced individual he has a chip.on both shoulders. He blames the government for nailing his good friend Ryan Tubridy.
I do think SDs will continue to grow. A very honest and capable leader too.
Why was he called a paedo by far right types? Best of off ignore those people anyway.
Respectfully disagree with you on him doing a good job in government. He may of worked hard but he made a dog's dinner of the integration portfolio. He was too driven by ideology and came up with little in the way of practical solutions. He was a soft touch on illegal immigration, not helped by that other hopeless case, Helen McEntee, as minister for justice, who also was re-elected. Hopefully FG and FF will see sense and keep her away from cabinet this time. Jim O'Callaghan would make a proper minister for justice.
If they have any sense it quite spoken Matt they will go fir but I doubt it. They must ne seen to be an angry party
I also found Matt Carthy the best spoken of the Sinn Fein people that were showing up across the campaign.
MLMD comes across as shrill, arrogant and condescending. If she goes, of the crew they have, whether Matt Carthy or Louise O’Reilly would be good options. It’ll be Angry Man Pearse though. Labour managed to ditch Alan Kelly and put him beyond use. Not sure why SF would want to go down the same route.
I don't think anyone will be fixing the housing crisis over the next term of government it will be interesting to see though who gets the ministries if the taoiseach takes them for his own party you would say they at least think they have a chance and if it gets pawned off to the other party then probably no chance.
She comes across as such to those inherently opposed to what she is saying/offering. Kinda the point, but that aside nobody can deny her worth on a campaign trail. Compare and contrast needed here,
22% drop in FPVs is not a successful campaign.
More than 1 in 5 voters that voted SF in 2020 did not do so this time.
IMO it is, if you consider where they started from (not 2020 or 22/23) and the battle they had on their hands locally in many constituencies with independents. They won that battle handsomely albeit losing some vote share.
Was thinking along similar lines. FG will very much be the junior partner this time round as was always likely and it can't really be portrayed as a partnership of equals as it was last time around. FF will probably keep the post of Taoiseach and the only rotation could be if MM decides to step down before next election and hands over to another FF minister.
Can't believe Martin would humiliate himself and FF by rotating. Nothing would surprise me though, how his 'there were not two sides in the conflict/war' didn't cause a FF revolt is inexplicable really and has caused me to change my opinion of backbench FF sentiment somewhat.
Where are you saying they started from? Apples with Apples is GE vs GE and SF are the only party amongst the big 3 that has dive bombed in terms of FPVs.
FFG will rotate leadership again.
It could that FF get longer in the hot seat, but they will rotate. Remember the FPVs are very close between them and a lot of FF seats were won because FG voted for them as 2nd preference.
They both know this and will respect it.
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