I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Yes Blue we know that. FF and FG DID have routes and tge support to make it on their own or in a coalition with s minor party. Now SF are hitting the same numbers as them they cannot go in on their own. They have to coalesce to keep the third main party out.
A huge shift in the political dynamic denied only by supporters of FF & FG
No no, they said 300,000 over 5 years. No chance.
In reality it was Fianna Fail that disrupted the 2 party system when they blew up so bad it's still not fixed.
Paul Murphy going to keep his seat, to pontificate and make strange unreasonable proposals that he knows will never come true (nationalise Aer Lingus anyone?) , while claiming moral high ground on everything
All talk about a SF/FF alliance one time but now Sinn Fein claim people who go into government have no integrity.
In 2011, FG had 56 seats more than FF who had destroyed the country.
In 13 years FF have 8 more seats than FG who somehow rehabilitated them.
These people have no achievements whatsoever and they keep getting re elected in a protest vote against the government.
No dynamic has beem denied.
SF policies dont accord with FF.
FF policies do accord with FG.
You cant form and maintain a govt if your policies dont accord.
Its achievable, but difficult of course. We need that level of ambition.
One thing is for sure, FFG will outbuild SF over the next 5 yrs, vs if SF were in govt.
The greens destroyed themselves. It’s an established pattern in Irish politics that the filler party in a coalition gets the flak. The greens were always getting a hammering even if they sat on their hands for 5 years. Instead they pushed hard on their pet policies and implemented a lot of them. They didn’t care particularly about the electorate or held their views in far second to the policies. That annoyed many and now they’re reaping that reward on top of the kicking they were going to get anyway. They’ll be back. We all have short memories.
FF FG have to hope not to fall again. FF were as low as 16% in the polls at one time. i
I know I gave kudos to MM at some point in how he was leading FF and that he might outstrip Fg. That has come to pass. Largely because he cultivated his statemanlije image.
He got away with it this time. Might he get away with again? Who knows. I also said I think Harris could be the most reviled FG leader yet.
If both were to happen - MM stock plummets and Harris continues as he is - there will be no mention of ‘centre’ or ‘stable’ etc they’ll get a Green style hammering.
The Greens have been nearly wiped out.
All the idiotic things they have done in the last 20 years coming back to roost as I try to drink my bottle of Club Orange with the bloody cap still attached. FFS.
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out, guys.
SF`s only real chances of forming a government in this our the 2020 election was through a coalition of the left. If anything the left is more fragmented now than it was in 2020 and that doesn`t look like changing anytime soon. SF best, and perhaps only chances of getting into government anytime soon look to be in a FF or FG coalition, or moving more towards the center. Something Mick Barry seems to believe has been happening in the last few months. How that would play with their present supporters is another story.
I honestly don't think FF and FG will want that.
Yes, they probably easily could do it with the likes of Lowry, Healy-Raes or even the Independent Ireland group - but they'd probably prefer a 'mudguard' party like the SDs or Labour - one of those parties of high ideals, who have to get muddy to join with FF and FG and take the flak of their own supporters. Having a 3rd recognised party in coalition also allows FF and FG to resist the FFG label often thrown around here, and also quietly drop some if their manifesto promises as they have to compromise with 2 other parties for a programme for Govt.
No offence intended but You better tell RTÉ that.
What are the main policy differences between FF and FG?
Again, as long as it was 2 consenting adults, I don’t think it’s anyone else’s business. I saw RTÉ interview His wife today & she was delighted He was elected.
Who go in as mudguards and for the comfy seats knowing what will happen. Do they need diagrams? A party with 12 TDs now has none more than likely.
Don’t forget when the bottle is empty, you’ve to bring it to a machine to get a refund on the empty bottle.
This type of scheme is all over Europe.
We really hate European ideas.
That too. And….
The BBC agreed to put BBC 1 and BBC 2 on Saorview. (Memorandum of Understanding). Then TV3 barged into Eamon Ryans office complaining about it. No more talk about BBC on Saorview.
I'm no fan of the Green Party but this is a great example of stuff they are not responsible being blamed on them.
See EU directive 2019/904. Published in June 2019 to make the tethering of bottle caps mandatory by July 2024.
Also is it even a big deal? The cap comes away from the bottle easy enough.
RTE are measuring the decline relative to the total electoral vote share, not the decline relative to SF's own vote share.
Yes, they probably easily could do it with the likes of Lowry, Healy-Raes
Anyone of a list of likely indos in the next Dail, so we could get a better idea how feasible this is? AFAIK the usual suspects of HR brothers, Lowry, McGrath & Grealish will all be back: they could well be enough without casting the net wider…
Hilarious, given FF & FG supporters are the quickest to lambast parish pump ‘I fixed the road’ politicians.
There arent any fundamental differences, which is why their policies accord and so govt formation is straight forward.
FFG are more likely to go for II first.
Less hassle to manage one party leader than 5 distinct needs and characters, so long as the manifesto of that party accord with FFG; and they broadly do.
If FFG get the 88 seats on their own however, they might go for a couple of independents only, especially ex FFG TDs that are aligned and tow the line.
ffg/ii government 16/1 with boyledports. Chance to make your fortune if you really think it’s likely…
Not the Greens
I've seen several posters say around the place that O'Gorman lost his seat, but the Journal live coverage says he's still in the count for the last two seats, and moreover should increase his count now with the transfers from the Labour Party candidate who's just been eliminated.
17 mins ago7:05PMGreen Party leader Roderic O’Gorman has survived the 12th count in Dublin West, our reporter Megan O’Brien tells me. Labour’s John Walsh has been eliminated, which means O’Gorman still has a chance to pick up one of the two remaining seats. He is currently behind People Before Profit’s Ruth Coppinger and áontú ‘sEllen Troy.Walsh’s 4039 votes will now be redistributed, and it’s expected that a large majority of them will go towards the Green camp.
17 mins ago7:05PM
Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman has survived the 12th count in Dublin West, our reporter Megan O’Brien tells me.
Labour’s John Walsh has been eliminated, which means O’Gorman still has a chance to pick up one of the two remaining seats.
He is currently behind People Before Profit’s Ruth Coppinger and áontú ‘sEllen Troy.
Walsh’s 4039 votes will now be redistributed, and it’s expected that a large majority of them will go towards the Green camp.
Or is that info now out of date?
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