I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
I honestly don't think FF and FG will want that.
Yes, they probably easily could do it with the likes of Lowry, Healy-Raes or even the Independent Ireland group - but they'd probably prefer a 'mudguard' party like the SDs or Labour - one of those parties of high ideals, who have to get muddy to join with FF and FG and take the flak of their own supporters. Having a 3rd recognised party in coalition also allows FF and FG to resist the FFG label often thrown around here, and also quietly drop some if their manifesto promises as they have to compromise with 2 other parties for a programme for Govt.
SF`s only real chances of forming a government in this our the 2020 election was through a coalition of the left. If anything the left is more fragmented now than it was in 2020 and that doesn`t look like changing anytime soon. SF best, and perhaps only chances of getting into government anytime soon look to be in a FF or FG coalition, or moving more towards the center. Something Mick Barry seems to believe has been happening in the last few months. How that would play with their present supporters is another story.
The Greens have been nearly wiped out.
All the idiotic things they have done in the last 20 years coming back to roost as I try to drink my bottle of Club Orange with the bloody cap still attached. FFS.
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out, guys.
FF FG have to hope not to fall again. FF were as low as 16% in the polls at one time. i
I know I gave kudos to MM at some point in how he was leading FF and that he might outstrip Fg. That has come to pass. Largely because he cultivated his statemanlije image.
He got away with it this time. Might he get away with again? Who knows. I also said I think Harris could be the most reviled FG leader yet.
If both were to happen - MM stock plummets and Harris continues as he is - there will be no mention of ‘centre’ or ‘stable’ etc they’ll get a Green style hammering.
The greens destroyed themselves. It’s an established pattern in Irish politics that the filler party in a coalition gets the flak. The greens were always getting a hammering even if they sat on their hands for 5 years. Instead they pushed hard on their pet policies and implemented a lot of them. They didn’t care particularly about the electorate or held their views in far second to the policies. That annoyed many and now they’re reaping that reward on top of the kicking they were going to get anyway. They’ll be back. We all have short memories.
Its achievable, but difficult of course. We need that level of ambition.
One thing is for sure, FFG will outbuild SF over the next 5 yrs, vs if SF were in govt.
No dynamic has beem denied.
SF policies dont accord with FF.
FF policies do accord with FG.
You cant form and maintain a govt if your policies dont accord.
These people have no achievements whatsoever and they keep getting re elected in a protest vote against the government.
In 2011, FG had 56 seats more than FF who had destroyed the country.
In 13 years FF have 8 more seats than FG who somehow rehabilitated them.
All talk about a SF/FF alliance one time but now Sinn Fein claim people who go into government have no integrity.
Paul Murphy going to keep his seat, to pontificate and make strange unreasonable proposals that he knows will never come true (nationalise Aer Lingus anyone?) , while claiming moral high ground on everything
In reality it was Fianna Fail that disrupted the 2 party system when they blew up so bad it's still not fixed.
No no, they said 300,000 over 5 years. No chance.
Yes Blue we know that. FF and FG DID have routes and tge support to make it on their own or in a coalition with s minor party. Now SF are hitting the same numbers as them they cannot go in on their own. They have to coalesce to keep the third main party out.
A huge shift in the political dynamic denied only by supporters of FF & FG
Well Social Democrats got 5% of the vote nationally. They need to get to around 20% at the next election, essentially replacing Sinn Fein.
I never said anything about SF or PBP. I want new parties like SDs and II to grow and grow. Labour too if they learn to keep their honour.
FFG destroying the Greens bothers me in a way. The way they blamed Greens for everything shows they care nothing about biodiversity or energy self sufficency or cleaning our water system or preparing for the effects of climate change.
Perfectly achievable by 2029/30.
Yes , feminism 101, women have zero agency
No party has a route to power on its own, including SF.
But the centrist vote for FFG is larger than the Centre left/ left party vote for SF, Lab, Soc Dem, PBPS & the Greens.
And the left are disconnected anyway.
What’s stopping a merger is integrity. Labour have none. Soc Dems lose theirs if facilitate FF & FG. Then they can merge.
Well you can remain optimistic if you like but there will be no Left alliance that includes Sinn Fein or People Before Profit.
Sinn Fein still toxic to the mainstream voters of the Left who voted Green, Labour etc.
And People Before Profit considered a joke party with crazy policies like raising corporation tax and ending capitalism.
I hope FFG merge! Not SDs and Labour.
60,000 houses a year. They both said it.
Egos too big for them to ever merge. So many of Social Democrats were in the Labour Party.
They have quite clearly not single handily done this. The rise of Independents is a far bigger reason.
FG had the best performance of the big 3, in terms of maintaining first preference vote share from 2020.
Not sure which promises you think are crazy from FFG?
Are Labour the only ones suggesting they'll go with FFG? After the way the Greens were thrown to the wolves, I really hope the Soc Dems don't. Assuming FFG can't get enough independents (I doubt this would happen), how would a minority government work?
The real winners are SDs, FF and Labour. independent Ireland have consolidated too. We have the makings of an alternative opposition to FFG and SF.
There were 14 extra seats up for grabs so FG are static. Also FFG will now be considered one party. And what they did to the Greens won't be forgotten. FFG transfer to each other seamlessly. Hopefully they merge. All their similar crazy promises will be tested now!!
FF and FG will never again get into government by themselves.
Not only are the days of single party majorities long gone, but so too are the days of FF coalition or FG coalition. Now the 2 centrist parties need to coalesce to get into government and this will be the way going forward forever really.
They are too similar now for one to ever pull ahead of the other enough to get into government without the other. And the civil war politics has ended after confidence & supply and then GE 2020 and the watershed coalition.
Quite simply FF or FG have no route to power on their own. Their combined vote down from a high of 86% to just over 40%
The hiding under the blanket to avoid the reality of the still shifting political dynamic here really is only a feature of boards.ie and some echo chamvers.
