I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Thats exactly it.
But you need the 83 - 85 seats to be in the position to pull that independent lever.
Looks like FFG will get the 83 seats and then its a smoother path, will less compromise, via the independent route.
Relatively young and a former leadership candidate.
He is looking 5 years down the road. Let the SD's to take such a pounding that they maybe rejoin or beg for an election pact.
More on O’Riordán comment about going into government with FFG
https://www.thejournal.ie/will-labour-go-into-power-with-fine-gael-or-fianna-fail-6559163-Dec2024/
But you need 90-91 minimum for a workable majority. Fair chunk of indos to get from 83-84 to there, likely some of them not entirely reliable…
MLMD still has her case open against RTE doesn't she? shutting down the media as usual
RTE don't want another one. Can't be saying bad things about SF or MLMD or you get slapped with a case against you
Well Bertie was saying that once what the independents ask for is sorted they are reliable. He said in some cases they were more reliable then his own TDs.
Must say in Dublin Central for Gannon to be elected before O’Donohue is more than a surprise.
The greens helped with their own downfall and didn’t need much help from FF and FG. I heard Eamon Ryan saying the greens will reflect and listen to what the voters said. The problem is they don’t seem to actually listen.
I’ve not heard it was closed so yes it must be.
"Let's ask Bertie Ahern about that" 😄
Kind of shows the wave the SD are on. They are still in the hunt for a seat in limerick city last time I looked.
But he was only ever dependent on a handful of indos, IIRC four between 1997 to 2002. If you get up near ten things get dicey IMO.
83 for FFG, 4 for Ii + 3 independents and you have it at 90.
FFG may well get more than 83 anyway, which makes it even easier to hit 90.
I am looking at midlands from tipperary south up to longford and there are a bunch of Independents there that will stick with the government for the full term. Throw in two pragmatic Kerrymen and there will none of the drama associated with some of the small political parties wrestling with their endless existential angst.
He cost them votes and seats across Dublin with his busconnects blocking i would say.
On the upside, they'll have plenty of time for growing food on their window sills as uncle Eamon once recommended.
Why? She is a very typical Labour td. I know boards has an issue with all female politicians, but is there a specific issue with Bacik you have?
After seeing what happened to the Greens would the SD or Lab go into government. Whoever does probably gets smacked in 5 years time
If labour are needed to get across the line and are only option and can turn that into guaranteed promises for programme for government, then they should go in. 5 years of government and no seats next time out is better than 5 years of opposition - assuming they can get a chunk of their policies implemented.
If FF +FG are very close and have other options, then it means labour (or Soc Dems, etc) will have a much weaker hand to play. In that scenario there's no point in being the mud guard with little to show from it, so it'll be the independents to take up the slack then.
Labour getting a hammering in 2016 was all of their own making. They campaigned in 2011 against water charges and received 19.5%, but by the time the 2016 election was called Joan Burton and Alan Kelly were both front and center on imposing water charges and they received 6.6%
I`m not sure how much of this idea of the minority party losing out to the extent the Green`s did is credible because of them being a mudguard for government policies. Mudguards to not absorb or deflect all the mud. You are going to still get splatters on your body work, yet here that hasn`t happened to either FF or FG who have both held their share of the vote.
That to me would suggest that the policies the Green Party pursued, (some very aggressively when they made little or no sense in relation to climate change), were the reasons they have been wiped out electoraly.
And falling asleep Watching their plantations grow.
Not her per se, but more Labour. I was a lifelong Labour voter but Gilmore, Rabbitte etc completely put me off ever voting Labour again
Just seen Calleary got elected in Mayo. Seems anyone who turns their noses up to the law has a right to be elected.
Cathal Berry getting an answer to his warmongering/join NATO sthick. Eliminated.
Easy enough for O Riordain to say with him being an MEP. If he had just been elected a T.D. he might have a different view.
I voted for him last time. But for me he was too pro FFG over the last term so I gave him a miss this time round. Why others didn’t vote for Him I have no idea.
Agreed Charlie, but he’s also not wrong is he?
Perhaps, but it is always easy to piss into a tent when you have nothing to lose than piss out of it when you do.
No fan of FG, but the drubbing Labour got in 2016 was more their own making than caused by FG.
I’d say o riordan is not alone in that view
can’t see any of the smaller left parties compromising their principles to prop up FFG and get decimated at the next election
independents are the most likely path for FFG, but the numbers will be tight and they will extract a high cost for their support
Seat prediction on RTE Radio (didn't catch psephologists name)
FF 49
FG 38
SF 38
SD 12
Lab 9
II 5
PBP 4
AO 1
GP 1
Ind 17
That'd be FF/FG 87…
