I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
FG out to 10-1 to win the most seats
Yeah if the Soc Dems are clever they'll stay well away but I suspect they'll go in with them..
While I have no opposition to the general ideology of the Greens in being environmentally focused, it seems like it's a completely moot point now since most parties have that as part of their agenda. The Greens have run their course and it certainly doesn't help that the last few leaders were smug and condescending.
That was only a thing in a past fairer society when people tended to accrue wealth through their life and become protective of that wealth at an old age.
If people are renting their whole lives they're never building asset wealth so there's nothing in conservative policies to appeal to them.
This idea of SF forming a government through a coalition of the left is not going to happen any time soon, so other than SF forming a coalition government with FF or FG I do not see how.
It's a little bit nuanced when it comes to young people and voting.
Young people tend to vote in larger numbers in single issue votes, like referendums.
They tend not to vote as much in general elections where a candidate and party has a range of policies, some which they may agree with, some which they may not.
You still need need someone there pushing this, if anything it's been a success
They also had at least decent TDS, far less gombeenizum and cronyizm which is rite in ffg
Manypensioners will renting in the future. Their inability to get a mortgage when in their 40s even tho their monthly rent exceeds mortgage repayments condemns them to rental slavery. Governments look the other way allowing banks to ignore rent payments history
The public reaps what governments sow.
Have it as their agenda yes. On the ground though they bow to every anti active travel grump and NIMBY.
I think we can almost 100% discount any notion of FG+SF.
But FF+SF would probably only require one microparty while FF+FG would appear to require two.
At this stage, I think I'd prefer just FF+FG (not going to happen) and I hate both of them as they currently are.
They won't. On the off chance they do they'll inevitably collapse the government within 2 years considering FFG will do whatever they can to not meet the SD "red lines" if agreed to.
I think the key difference here is, while Murphy and Shorthall are not running they will still hold sway in how the party proceeds and there has been no desire to prop up a FFG government. Shorthall quit her position in the Labour party in 2012 over a dispute about FG continuing to make cuts to healthcare.
I stand to be corrected in this election but I firmly believe what sets them apart from Greens and Labour is the possibility of being unwilling to form a government with FFG knowing full well what that will lead to.
It's not the issue here is the young people get older, not young people themselves
When it comes to party politics the difference between the parties on ideology is so small you'd need an electron microscope to measure it
Lisa Chambers tipped to lose seat and O'Brien (inappropriate texter) likely to pick a seat up
Lisa Chambers doesn’t have a seat to lose - she’s a Senator
Just listening to Rte radio one,they reckon now,45 FF,40 SF and 39 FG
FF in the tallies doing better than the exit poll
SF and FG doing worse,SF 3rd in fact at 18.5
Caveat many 100% tallies done but some not yet
Wonder if much geographic variance still to come
Kerry electorate did the same for four elections.
True, should have said 'miss out'
https://x.com/gavreilly/status/1862860595462082764
FF 20.8%, FG 20.0%, SF 18.2%
There's no skirting around the issue, this is a dissaponting result for Sinn Féin. The exit poll is well off.
SF 1/4 for most seats and FF 3/1.
(With Boylesports)
The latter is probably true and just means they’ll be perpetual whingers complaining about whoever is in power and never actually stepping into power themselves and making the tough decisions.
Only 80% of tally complete and the bookies favourite to have most seats.
meanwhile in Wicklow
Please God let ROG lose his seat. Delighted to see Putin lover Daly do so badly.
With 80% of the tallies complete they haven't a hope of closing the gap in terms of first preference votes.
They're looking at a 5% drop in first preference vote share compared to 2020, perhaps as high as 7%.
100% tallied there now
Posh People Before Profit.
The problem though is the childish Irish electorate who keep lifting the flavour of the month small party only to give them a kicking for actually "winning" the election.
I mean I don't know how anyone who voted Green last time can be upset with what they just achieved in government.
And if they end up with more seats than the last time?
Or the highest number of seats according to PP and Boylesports?
Do you think they will be disappointed?
They'll probably land in around 40 seats compared to 37 in 2020. A very poor result considering they were polling 34% in the polls a few months ago and there are are now an extra 14 seats in the Dáil. Not even increasing their share in proportion with the additional seats.
So yes, I think Sinn Féin will be disappointed when the dust settles and Mary Lou will probably stand down as Leader.
Their spokespersons are certainly not as happy as they were last night when the exit poll was released.
I think Sinn Féin's major issue is that they don't have a clear path to Government without Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael so they are caught in a bit of a bind and it has probably stunted their support somewhat. If the campaign had been about how they could clearly be the frontrunners it could have helped them a lot but they was never any realistic prospect of them Governing with left leaning groupings. They leaned heavily into that in recent months, probably too much so. People didn't see it as being a likely prospect.
Getting back to close to 50/50 with SF and FF now again
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