I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Let's logic this out. You are implying that FF and FG are pro immigration, and SF are even more pro immigration. And this cost SF votes.
Where did those votes go so? I don't see any right wing, anti immigration party doing anything...
It's been suggested that the turnout is as low as 50% in some places. Half aren't arsed voting as everyone knows it's another five years of FF/FG.
ideally being told to wait. There are some oddities in the exit poll. For instance people can’t decide if Martin or McDonald would be a better Toiseach but they are giving Harris the spot. A high number saying things are worse of now than before, etc.
My gut as a statistician tells me that FG could be over polling and Ff/SF underpolling like last time. So probably best to wait until first counts are in to see the true makeup of it all. it won’t be massive but may be similar to what we had in 2020 again We’ll know more in a few hours anyways.
They need to elect a new leader early in the cycle.
...
Simon finishing 3rd in the Taoiseach poll means the Harris Bounce and Brand Harris are kaput. 😁 Get your point about waiting.
Just seen Pauline O’Reilly interviewed on RTÉ. Trying to talk up the green vote. Based purely on the exit polls with only 3% transfer votes going their way.I’d say they are in serious trouble.
Oh no, the panel
Have just been joined by Matt Carthy.:(
The job of the opposition is to offer alternatives to failing government policy that reflect their political platform, you can't stand for human rights and rage against migrants, asylum seekers, and refugees like the racist right.
Matt Carthy actually believing SF are going to beat Fianna Fáil in seat numbers.
Bless his heart.
Matt will be happy. Steadied the ship after a difficult year.
Look it's like the morning of the all Ireland final. Everybody wants to think their team have a chance.
If things go SF's way then they could nab a few surprises.
But the FFG transfers look solid based on the exit poll so that's a few dodgy seats over the line for them.
SF don't elect their leaders.
If they hate Ff/fg so much and actually voted then they would have close to a majority
Just my observation: seeing ballot papers being laid out, it appears there are a lot of ballot papers with not all delegates getting a vote. Here in KS, we only have to elect 3 TD’s, so I only voted 1.2 & 3.
The non government vote according to that exit poll is almost 55%
SF are one of about 5 opposition parties, and then there's independents. SF finishing neck and neck with FF would be a decent result.
This result would solidify the sea change seen in 2020 where it's no longer a FF or FG at the top and small parties making up the scraps. Now there are 3 top parties on similar seats.
Clearly 2020 is not an outlier as some thought - SF have broken through to the top table
Do you mean people not voting down the ballot? Or voting for less preferences than there are candidates?
In either case, it's not unusual. It happens every election
An interesting statistic is that FF got 41.5% on their own in 2007 and now FF&FG are only reaching 40% in 2024.
Another FF/FG government will be formed but the future for one or the other is bleak…..which is why they have effectively merged. FF and FG are literally clinging on to each other for power.
The stats show that the young are not voting for them and when the old die off the writing will be on the wall for FF/FG.
I’m no SF supporter but it’s hard to disagree with Your opinion. Personally, for me FFG have had ample opportunities to do what they are promising now. One thing that bugs me : I’ve watched a good few debates & I was struck by the lack of questioning about the scandal that is the Children’s Hospital, it’s unending spiralling cost & it’s lengthening delay in up & running.
But have they?
SFs traditional transfer toxicity means they usually see a seat penalty rather than a seat bonus. When they come down to the wire in eliminations, they will generally lose to the irival.
The FG/FF share of the vote is down again if 1st prefs are correct. The dynamic is still changing, slowly but still changing
You should vote all the way to maximise your vote
Voting down the ballot. As I said it’s purely my observation. You could be right about it not being unusual, personally up to yesterday I’ve always voted down the ballot, but yesterday I only went 1,2 & 3.
Their 2nd pref vote of 17% suggests those days are coming to an end
Simple Simon and West Brit Martin in charge again? Ah well
Hopefully SF win the popular vote again.
Young people voting for SF obviously is good to see. FFG vote will die off as we go on, literally.
If sf we're anti immigration they would of p1ssed this.
a government can not be made up of 5 opposition parties and a whole load of others…..sf have failed badly.
Integrity before far-right bile and hate. Easy choice to make. Far-right nowhere in this election. They may think again.,
Nah FFFG +lab will continue the ramp up of house building and this will win them votes amongst the youngsters. The new planning bill with its specific JR fastrack court should hopefully speed up the NIMBY craic that we’ve had to put up with for years mostly backed up by SF and certain GP councillors amongst others.
Talkabout rubbish you are posting none of it based on fact
Thats not actually true.
If your 1st pref candidate gets elected but not on 1st count, your vote ends there. 2nd prefs only come into play if your candidate is eliminated, or if they meet quota on 1st count.
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