I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Looks like no real change in government as the Soc Dems are indistinguishable from the green party
FG ,FF and Soc Dems will form next government
We were told at the start that campaigns matter.
Well it doesn't appear to have mattered at all here except for Aontu. And their vote is tiny overall.
So we will have a minority government?
Dublin Central turnout is up 8% on the last election.
The 3 bigger parties must all be disappointed with the numbers, right? I know they'll all say it's promising, etc. but that none of them could make a break for the lead is poor performance on all of their parts.
As for next government, hard to know until we see what seat counts are, but if there was a direct match of fpv in exit poll to seats (there won't be) then you need 4 parties. I'd like labour and Soc Dems to work together, that'd be the easy match then with FF and FG.
Soc Dems, Labour and Greens are the same party.
Some of the predictions for this election were so off it was comedy then pathetic now. SF11% FG 25% FF 24% etc
Was always gonna be tight between the top 3
This transfer pattern of FF and FG should put to bed the logic of a FF/SF coalition.
They are completely interchangeable and push an identical agenda
Good for the Monk ?
3% went for People Before Profit and agree with their policy to increase the corporation tax rate by 5%.
If the exit polls are to be believed SF will be down on first preference votes and up on 2nd preference votes
Obviously a reflection of SF putting more candidates out there! I'd like to see are 2nd preferences for PBP down
You don't have to agree with all of a party's policies to vote for them...
Pearse Doherty looks like he is on the tonight show being interviewed from his downstairs loo...complete with dodgy Martin McGuiness picture
Good point. It's FFG with possibly a mudguard each.
At a minimum if only 4% of FF first preferences transfer to SF that's a good enough excuse for Micheal Martin to shut down the nonsense talk of a possible link up with SF.
Probably their most significant policy I would have thought.
I taught he did very well in the 3 leader debate. He reminded people that FG never broke the country. Ya only an exit poll if any party is underestimated it's FF or the independents. However Independents could be gone out of flavour.
Lab indicated that they will not go into government without a center left ( Lab, Gr, SD). I think Lab might stay outnof government this time. FG and FF will be within a couple seats of an overall majority IMO.
If I was betting FG, FF and Independent Ireland with the backing of Micheal Lowry, Veronica Murphy and a few other independents.
FF/FG transfer rate looking very strong. Last election FG got few transfers from FF.
On independents we might see only one Healy Rae elected. While there was poll showing a strong shining for MHR, Danny was on 10% if he dose not get a strong transfer from Micheal he could struggle
That’s very true!
You can't take any sort of results from the exit poll and know what it means for a specific constituency. The Healy-Raes have never lost an election like...
That trio likely to have the barest majority if any at all. Mr Cautious Martin not likely to be happy with such a dicey arrangement.
Surely FF are centre left? FG are Centre right. Don’t think lab would get a more centre left party than FF considering SF are outright left.
I thought Harris came across poorly in them, condescending, not owning up to anything, repeating the same lines, muttering when others talked but tbh but no one really shone.
Would be lovely to see possibly one of the Healy Raes gone (I doubt it unfortunately) that Danny one is an imbecile, Michael is a shrewd operator.
If 1st preferences are correct Micheal might be busy watching his back. This was the election FF were expecting to eclipse FG nevermind SF
That's true. He changes his predictions regularly.
Surely the public won't tolerate 6 months of government formation talks?
For a long time Brian Fenton never lost a championship match. When the tide goes out it goes out. It might not take much for FF to win a second seat in Kerry. Norma Fokey will poll strongly. Micheal did not transfer exceptionally strongly to Danny last time. They have twice refused to enter government the electorate tend not to like that
Greens vote share is well down,I'm not surprised, they were a disaster in Government.Hopefully they will not be back.
Oh God, please don’t let Ivana Bacik be in government. Anyone but her.
I was thinking during the week that the poor campaign and drop in polls for FG might have actually helped them. I think there are a lot of reluctant FG voters, these are not necessarily FG supporters but see them as the least worst option. I'd say FG doesn't have a big core support the same way FF and especially SF have.
A month or two ago when they were looking good in the polls, I think some of those voters were drifting towards other parties, confident that FG would be part of the next government anyway. With FG dropping in the polls, I think a lot of them ended up giving their first preference to FG out of concern that voting SD/Lab/Green would open the door for a FF/SF coalition.
