I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Well I think I got it right at the polling station in regards to the Independents, but I was so focused on getting that part of the ballot right that I overlooked Jennifer Whitmore right at the bottom of the ballot, so she has unfortunately got a lower preference than I'd have liked!
If she loses her seat by 1 vote I will feel bad.
2011 was a big year because that was the one during the downturn and people were sick of FF
It's been declining since with FG lead governments in place.
Is there as much anger around now as in 2011 ?
I don't think so, but that might be just me in my echo chamber.
But remember in 2011 the outlet for the anger was FG and Labour, two parties with government experience.
The outlet for any anger now is SF and a rag tag bunch of independents, that's very different.
So given all that turnout may be in the mid 60%
I always thought the order of the candidates on the ballot paper should be done randomly, rather than alphabetically.
I'd say there's a lot of V's, W's and Y's that have lost out over the years.
Always said that if I was running for election the first I'd do is change my name to black aardvark-white
SM as in Social Media? Why would that lead to an upturn in turnout?
The highest turnout era in the history of the sate was in the era before TV was even commonly available and most people didn't have cars to drive them right to the doors of the polling station.
If anything all the distractions of modern life probably suppress turnout.
While young people might be more engaged with political content by watching tiktoks and liking stuff etc it still doesn't actually get them to vote and as others have pointed out turnout has been declining consistently. 2020 was our lowest turnout at 62.9% since 1927.
I agree. They have this rule in Australia to counteract what they call donkey voting (just going down the paper in order)
Wow SM almost having the opposite affect than I'd have thought over the past decade.
That's pretty ironic given how polarised and vitriolic SM is around politics.
Cheers all, saved me a Google.
I would not trust any % turnout figure, as we know that the 31 electoral registers are riddled with problems.
https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2024/0924/1471743-general-election-how-electoral-register-flaws-skew-turnout-data/
"Psephologist Odran Flynn, who first started analysing Ireland’s electoral register two decades ago, believes an inaccurate electoral register is a leading factor in Ireland’s low election turnout figures.
Mr Flynn told Prime Time that there could be hundreds of thousands more names on the electoral register than there should be due to duplication.
"Turnout is obviously calculated as a percentage of the number of people who voted on who are on the electoral register…However, that assumes that the register is right, whereas I believe it's still way, way out.""
I reckon we will beat that today haha
I guess if it’s wrong each time it’s still a good basis for comparing between elections.
And how do you suggest that could have better done that, without putting the Country more in hock?
They protected who they could, as much as they could, for as long as they could.
The alternative would have been a drying up of liquidity and sovereign borrowing and a colossal debt default.
You can't even conceive of what was at stake then.
Hi Brian Cowen,
I hope all is well with you after your health troubles. Thanks for the USC.
It's still wrong though, that's an old picture of Martin.
So RTE were perfectly happy to wrongly suggest Martin had voted but didn't do the same for SF.
My neighbour's daughter has been living permanently abroad for eight years now, probably comes home once a year. I was down at the vote today and saw she is still on the Register.
Is it a wrong picture of Martin though ?
The same one is in The Guardian, and those are not Cork balloons in the background
No. FF will probably win the most seats but it would be an unsustainable reversal if they then tried to claim that a coalition with SF was "in the national interest".
If FG finish third, FF will try to f**k with them by conjuring alternative coalition partners but I doubt there can be a workable majority which excludes both FG and SF. If FF win ten seats more than the next largest party, there will be no more talk of "rotating Taoiseach"
Prepare to be underwhelmed, as pointed out weve been consistently trending down and currently a lot of people are in an apathetic slump regarding politics and voting, that coupled with the weather and i think we will be under 2020s percentile turnout.
You dismiss 430,000 new voters on the assumption that they registered to vote but won't bother to turn up today. No wonder your churches are empty, Fr. Tod!
Of course the bad weather will suppress turnout but why do you think the rain is targeting the new voters in particular?😏
Perhaps you are thinking of the old rhyme
“The rain it raineth on the just And also on the unjust fella; But chiefly on the just, because The unjust stole the just’s umbrella.”
I was wondering whether the Electoral Commission were going to have the registers sorted for this election. That article answers that question (No).
I wonder what the process is for removing someone from the register when they emigrate. Do they check with Social Welfare to see if you've stopped contributing PRSI or drawing welfare or something like that?
He's from Ballinlough, so he might be voting in St Anthony's school - their colours are red and black…
This is from the independent of Micheal Martin arriving to vote so RTE obv used the same photo…..
The credit on that photo in The Irish Independent and The Guardian is Jacob King/PA Wire.
I think Jacob King/PA Wire deserve an apology from some people on this thread.
I know of at least 1 duplication that the person is aware of and hasnt bothered correcting for their own reasons. Also ive been living in my current house for 7 years and we still get polling cards for 2 previous residents who i know for a fact don't live in the constituency anymore, ive attempted to have them removed from at least being listed at my address but nothing has come of it. The register is a shambolic mess.
It's a conspiracy I tells ya!
I never suggested there was anything illegal or that their votes shouldn't count.
Your lack of curiosity has a curious intensity. What drove you to declare it three times already today?
yea I said that previous , expecting 60
I'm not talking about all 430,000 voters, I am talking about the percentage of that number that are young first time voters, and a not insignificant percentage of those number of young first time voters will not turn up to vote.
Word locally is that Farrelly (Soc Dems) is very strong and likely to win a seat, FF could also win 2 seats (Kildare North) which means FG only potentially winning 1 when they would have been seen as a cert for 2
Reada Cronin will be safe despite my thoughts that she'd lose her seat
Cronin being safe would be an indictment of the local electorate. She's incompetent and she's invisible.
Coasted in on a national protest vote, should be washed back out by that wave going out.
Splitting the Naas vote - where she was strong - off will hurt her too. She was also strong in Prosperous which Farrelly will mop up.
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