I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
I've never voted Fianna Fail in my life and have no intention of starting anytime soon but I'd definitely vote for Micheal Martin for president. He has a definite statemanslike quality to him and he seems pretty well intentioned.
That's an interesting take.
But I don't see SF having more seats than FG, they are not transfer friendly, whereas FF and FG are probably the most transfer friendly they have ever been between each other.
The smoking ban in Ireland has been transformative and it is now unthinkable to have a pub full of people smoking and getting home stinking of smoke.
John Hume was an absolute legend and many in SF dont like to give him credit when they are trying to change history
You're slow on the uptake. Here's the issue - almost 12% of voters are first-timers but no one knows who they are. About half of them may have turned 18 in the past 4 years and joined the age group which is twice as likely to vote SF as either FF or FG. These young voters would be predominantly in urban constituencies which have disproportionately younger populations. But who knows who or where the rest are?
You may not be bothered by this news but, if there are surprises at tomorrow, this will be prominent among the commentators' "explanations". Not that they will actually understand what these voters did, but it will be a convenient way to explain why they were caught napping, as usual.
Only Irish citizens and British citizens resident in Ireland can vote for the Dáil so not sure what relevance that has. More likely the population is growing and aging also so more people in the 18+ group.
Apologies if this is off topic.
To return to the prediction side.
I'll go with
FF 45
SF 38
FG 36
I think Fine Gael's lack of an incumbency advantage in many constituencies given the large number of TD's retiring will really come back to bite them. You still need to stay ahead of the pack for transfers to be relevant. It’s not as if Fianna Fáil or the Greens are going to have large surpluses to distribute either. A lot of their new first time candidates will see a large drop in the party's share of first preference votes. They'll miss out on a whole raft of marginal seats as a result.
Sinn Féin seem to have a bit of a tailwind going into the final days of the campaign. I think they will do much better than was initially expected.
Where did you get the extra 200,000 people who turned 18 between 2020 and 2024 from? All I can find is age brackets
If you know your history you'd know every Hume initiative failed to bring a resolution and one of them, Sunningdale, made the situation worse (think Loyalist violence and the bombing of Monaghan, Dublin and Belturbet in the 'onesided' conflict of Martin's imagination) It was when he combined with Adam's in what is called the Hume-Adams Initiative that a solution/agreement was arrived at. Also notable in that process where the contributions, compromises and sarcrifices of David Trimble, David Ervine, etc facilitated by finally responsible British and Irish governments and the encouragement of the US government and the rest of the EU. Some folk don't like to give credit where it is properly due and prefer selective heroes as well as villains and victims.
Rubbish. You need to be Irish or UK citizen to get a vote in Dáil.
This press release from June - https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/b2505-4800-new-irish-citizens-attend-citizenship-ceremonies-at-killarney-co-kerry/ - says that 176k people have received Irish citizenship since 2011, so if that is evenly spread it maybe accounts for 55,000 people since 2020.
More likely is that about 60,000 students did the leaving cert in 2022, so if that's evenly spread there's been ~270,000 people who will have turned 18 since the last election. And also people who left Ireland who have since returned.
It's not the great invasion you are alluding to.
I wasn't going down that route
Again, I cannot see the issue if they are legally entitled to a vote. Why would you need to know 'who they are'? To what end would that knowledge be useful?
Just back from voting in Cabra, Dublin 7 and there are a load of press & cameras outside so no doubt Mary Lou is about to cast her vote
You said to look at immigration numbers, but didn't say how that affects the numbers who can vote. What are you suggesting?
There is obviously naturalisation, you're picking this up wrong anyway, i'd suggest you go back and re-read, i'm not dragging this off topic anyway - FTR -I'm pro immigration in case you're looking for a "gotcha"
And the RTE page has been updated.
So some people here can now rest easy.
I just can't see it. I think MM wants to be Taoiseach again way more than he wants to be President. Otherwise we would have stepped down as leader after he handed over the reigns to Varadkar. No, I think he will make things work with FG - even going as far as offering a rotating Taoiseach even if FF have 10 more seats. He might offer 3 years versus 2 years or something like that.
General Election voting is restricted to Irish and UK Citizens who are resident within the State.
From 2011 to September 2024, we've only granted citizenship to approximately 180,000 people. Unless every single one of them waited until after 2020 to register to vote, you are spouting complete and utter bollox.
of course Fine Gael pick a wet, windy day to have an election
15% so far according to Gavin Reilly, not exceptional but not bad either.
you can register to vote online now as far as i know
Incredible timing
I'll try one last time, Francie, and for benefit of the three slow learners who thanked you.
This thread is about predicting the outcome of today's election. Now we are told that almost 12% of those entitled to vote today have never voted before in a general election. How could that not affect the outcome? You are wrong if you are assuming that these 430,000 new voters will behave like the 3.3 Million who were on the register last time out. We know that the youngest voters behave very differently. We don't know anything about the others additional voters and there is no reason to imagine that they are a cross-section of society.
But if you're not bothered, relax and leave this to people who are concerned with our democracy.
You know something, you could be spot on.
Sorry, I can't get my head around:
1. What detail you require. 2. Why you want the detail. If they are legally entitled to vote and I assume they are, then their votes have the same weight as yours and mine.
Now we are told that almost 12% of those entitled to vote today have never voted before in a general election. How could that not affect the outcome?
not
By them not voting.
It's well known that young people don't participate in the numbers that older people do in "non single issue" votes, i.e general elections.
If we are assuming that many of these new voters are young voters, and we have to assume that, then their turn out may be very low and not greatly affect the outcome.
Plus it's a wet, windy, s**t day in lots of places so that does not help turnout.
Has turnout been higher in the past few GEs, anyone know?
I feel like SM should be having an upward trend on turnout across all demographics.
Necessarily bad for them and the government?
Arguably SF and opposition would prefer more clement weather to help mobilise casual voters…
Have 2 newbies in my house and they didnt bother registering in time :) Despite my regular badgering
Around 20% at this time in 2020 according to RTE
2020 = 63%
2016 = 65%
2011 = 70%
2007 = 67%
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