I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Not what i remember of it.
Tell us you're biased against one particular party without telling us you're biased against one particular party
Irish national broadcaster, RTE:
Has MLMD actually been photographed voting yet today? If not, its impossible to put an image that doesn't exist somewhere.
An unholy trinity, god I hope labour get no where near the government
That's what I was about to say too.
But it's easier for some people to say there's a conspiracy
I scrolled down the RTE election tracker.
It shows Simon and Ivana voting but neither MM or MMLD feature.
I always want to get exit polled. But I think they work best if they go back to the same places each time, so makes sense they'd be there for you both times…
Are they just by the polling booths or outside the building itself?
Nobody outside Scoil Bride in Clane, although it was 7.05 in the morning!
I hope we all don't have too short a memory, the Labour party were obliterated for a reason.
Yeah but if it's still the same Labour party at heart, that reason is only going to make them all the more attractive as coalition partners for FF & FG…
Bacik strikes me as someone who would do anything for a ministry, so you can probably be rest assured that they won't have any major red lines
MM's twitter feed shows him voting in a video posted at 10:15, so unless he spent 10+ minutes in the school getting photos taken and RTE are moving at the speed of light I'd say that photo isn't part of this election.
The red baloons in that photos background are likely from the local/european elections when cork would have been playing in the hurling
I am an advocate for parties going into government, whatever the expected outcomes will be in the next election. But I think that Labour going in in 2011 was a mistake. Firstly, the size of Fine Gael meant they didn't need a party the size of Labour to go in with them, it meant the governing parties were far too big (113/166 TDs were from those 2 parties). Secondly, it was pretty obvious that the decisions the government were going to have to take were largely out of their control, so it wasn't going to be possible for Labour to act as the conscience of the government. Thirdly, they issued that stupid Tesco ad in advance of the election and made promises they should have known they couldn't keep.
I maintain that if Labour had stayed out in 2011 and acted as responsible opposition the outcomes of that government would have been largely the same, but we'd have moved into a system where FG versus Labour would be the debates for elections, with FF & SF being the supporting parties to both.
That ship has obviously sailed now. Still voted Labour though.
One problem I am having with the number of Independents right now is I am needing to teach myself which of them are the ok Independents and which of them are the lunatics so I can rank them accordingly. I hope I remember it correctly when I get to the polling station!
I am astonished by the addition of 430,000 voters to the electoral register since 2020, (based on Pat Leahy's story in the Irish Times).
https://www.rte.ie/radio/radio1/clips/22465734/
Almost 3.7 million people, the largest number ever, are eligible to vote in this election. More than 400,000 new voters have registered since the last election; more than 100,000 registered in the final fortnight before the deadline. It will be fascinating to see where these votes go.
Based on Census 2022 numbers, there were about 200,000 people who would have turned 18 in the past four years. The additional ~230,000 names are not due to existing voters changing address - these are extra voters who increased the size of the electorate.
These additional voters - one in eight of those now registered - could have a decisive effect on the election results. I would not assume they will behave like existing voters. There is a deep generational divide with SF favoured by young voters, especially those under 25. Who knows who the other ~230,000 voters are and how they might vote?
https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/11/29/election-2024-time-for-the-country-to-decide/
If they are legally qualified to have a vote, I'm not sure what the issue is.
Bleedin fordiners taken all our votes…………
It's fairly obvious to me where the increase in the registration is coming from but you probably know yourself
I got exit polled before (I think it was the local/Euros in 2019). My polling station is a primary school. She was standing inside the gate on the pathway into the building. I actually made a bee-line for her after I voted and waited around for her to finish with another person as I had never been polled before and wanted to see what the process was like.
She had an iPad. She asked me some demographic questions about myself (age, sex, educational attainment, job type). Then she asked me who I gave my first and second preferences to. She also asked me a few other questions like - which of the following is the most important issue to you. The whole process was pretty fast - no longer than 2 or 3 minutes.
If Labour do go into government what Ministry would Bacik want for herself? Minister for Environment was the obvious one that the Greens would have requested. Would Labour be Enterprise & Employment?
Enterprise would be my guess. Can't imagine they'll want to touch environment.
Nothing there I'd disagree with. Their performance was cataclysmically bad in the eyes of the electorate though, and they paid for that performance dearly. I don't think people felt that Labour would have a lot of control as a very junior party, but they really, really, rolled over on a lot of issues and abandoned a lot of what they promised to be. I'll always remember them for that. Illogical perhaps, given there's a lot of fresh blood there….I just hope that fresh blood remembers what happened to the party, and why it happened.
speaking to only people who voice their opinion will give you a very one sided view.
Think hospitals - you only hear of people moaning and whining, but you don't hear from the hundreds of thousands who get superb care.
So don't listen to those who give opinions. They are a tiny tiny group.
Look at the betting markets on a constituency basis where real people put real money - it gives the most accurate outcome above any poll. It has been showing FF as biggest party (circa 48) since the beginning of the campaign followed by FG (circa 40) and then sf (circa 31) and has not changed much.
Betting markets are shaped by people putting money on - therefore it is representative of gamblers, not of the voting public at large
Fianna Fáil will have the most seats and will be around ten clear of the next largest party, Sinn Féin. The arithmetic will require a rainbow coalition if Finna Fáil want to go back into Government with Fine Gael, or a large number of Independents.
My prediction is that Fianna Fáil will go into Government with Sinn Féin 'in the national interest' of having a stable Government.
Micheál Martin will stand down as leader of Fianna Fáil, behind the scenes he will be guaranteed the Fianna Fáil nomination for the Presidential election taking place in November 2025. His campaign will get underway early next year and he will probably be the next President. Sinn Féin may not put forward a candidate if a rotating Taoiseach is put on the table.
I can't read the article but Jesus Christ it would be a crazy move for Fine Gael to put Jennifer Carroll McNeill in charge. Not a very palatable politician.
Why can't the apology stand alone from Sinn Fein? Why do you need everyone else to apologise?
Doing the right thing when everyone else can't or won't is how you stand out, which is why John Hume stands tall over every little SF politician.
Twitter now consists of MAGA and Shinnerbots.
You are very quick to make baseless assumptions about me. The very definition of prejudice.
Pat Leahy doesn't address the question. Does he even see a problem?
he will be guaranteed the Fianna Fáil nomination for the Presidential election
He'd want to be rowing back on his 'there were not two sides involved in the conflict/war here' comments of he wants a chance to be in Áras an Uachtaráin. Will the self respecting FFers ever stand up?
Not the only thing in his career likely to come back to haunt him either.
I'm not derailing this thread as i can feel Seth twitching from here, but it is absolutely obvious where the additional numbers are from, look at immigration numbers the past 4 years
