I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Well, we had an independent group in 2016 that had less cohesion and they lasted in government for four years.
I think Aontu could get 6-7 seats.
Fair point about independents.
Where are Aontú getting seats outside of Meath?
It's an incredibly stupid political strategy from Martin. He could hold FG by the short and proverbial but has allowed the opposite to occur.
It's not up to MM, he is the leader and he can put forward ideas but the party has to vote on it.
I think the same questions were asked in the thirties when De Valera and FF won power for the first time. I seem to remember hearing about some TDs attending with revolvers in their coats.
Yes I agree about some of those points but I wouldn't describe SF as anti green in the way II are and while there are elements of conservatism in SF they're broadly a progressive party.
In my view SF will enter government at some point and it will be with FF, it could happen this time if FG are significantly behind FF and can't win a rotating Taoiseach argument. However SF (and I think FF too) will want one of the centre-left parties in too, probably Labour - they will not want to be in gov while other 'progressive' parties on the outside.
II are a collection of individuals, and lack cohesion, their candidate in Cavan was ridiculing thier manifesto on the Luas to Cavan on Drivetime yesterday! I dont think other parties would wish to rely on them and I'm not convinced SF would want to deal with them. Ego is not an unimportant issue too in all of this in terms of government stability.
Lastly, I think Aontu are more likely to have 1-3 seats rather than 6-7.
Exactly, so he will lean whatever way his party want him to go, and not care a damn about those who voted FF on Friday.
Aontu are effectively a one man party.
Not to mention single issue party, they only actually care about being anti abortion and just tack on populist nonsense to make them seem reasonable and distract from their wholly unpopular and out of date stance on abortion
Holly would be a lot easier to work with than Ivana! Anyway, the soc dems have said they'll go in to government on the basis of getting a disabilities minister which is no problem to get done i'd imagine, PLUS, I strongly fancy the soc dems to get more seats than Labour
Will the greens get any seats?
Might get a few in the Seanad 🤣
"populist nonsense" is that not SF?
Will baby Cairns arrive within the next day is the big question!
Dublin West is a strong shout. Really visible local campaign.
If that is replicated around the country, they will get seats. All of them will be last seats, and dependent on transfers. There are people who will transfer to Aontu ahead of SF, and vice versa, who will transfer to Aontu ahead of FF and FG. They are in a potential sweet spot for transfers.
Sinn Fein are promising to drop the price of petrol and diesel, about as anti-Green as you can get. Aontu the same, and II hate the Greens. That just leaves FF, who will row in with the others as they were never fully on board the Green agenda.
The Dublin Commuter Coalition ranked nine political parties on the basis of Green policies and FF, Aontu, II and SF occupied four of the bottom five places. As close as you can get.
Between 0 and 3 (Martin, Smyth, Hourigan) most likely.
Lost too many councillors to get anyone elected to the Seanad now.
Those who voted will decide in reality. You dont seem to understand the FF party
Dublin West currently 4/1 for a seat with Boylesports.
I can't see it happening.
Yes, but like all small parties that go into government they will be hammered
Mostly blamed for stuff they never done, the ability of the voting person to fact check is diminished
I would say between 0 and 7, adding Costello, O'Gorman, Noonan and maybe just maybe Steven Matthews to the 3 you have named.
For me I'd say in order of likelihood it's probably Martin, Costello, Smyth, Hourigan, Noonan, O'Gorman, Matthews. I found it very hard to order Hourigan, Noonan and O'Gorman though.
I don't believe they will be wiped out, they'll get 3 or 4 seats IMO.
As I said they will get seats but a lot less than they should
They will get a lot of FG transfers in Dublin, and that will save several of them.
They might not share all the same policies but enough and they move in the same circles socially, family ties etc.
I can't see any circumstances where O'Gorman keeps his seat.
He doesn't have a huge personal vote and the Green vote has evaporated in the constituency. Outpolled by Aontu… (and Labour, Soc Dems and PBP)
I'm not sure how it's any different to how current leasehold arrangements work on the face of it. The banks don't seem to have a problem providing mortgages in these circumstances and SF say there shouldn't be an issue with them providing mortgages for their plan.
Its very different to what is currently on offer because of the proposed rules around selling on the house, the price its to be sold for, and who can purchase the house, along with the complexity of the state still owning the land.
SF needed to do better than just say "Trust us, Bro!"
So there will be about 65 independants?
Pat the cope was at my door, SF and the Irish freedom party that’s it. Irish freedom party only on 1 or 2% on 2 polls. Nothing from FG, combined both candidates are only on around 11% first preference votes so they probably think there’s no point. Niall mc Connell 1%
that made zero sense
Yea, MM is dumb… he is just about to lead FF to victory and become Taoiseach again…
Meanwhile, 18 months ago, SF were on the mid 30's in the polls, and are on the even of losing the GE….
If MM is dumb, how stupid must Mary Lou be?
Note. EVERY election held in the Western world in 2024 has gone against the incumbents. But Ireland looks to buck the trend, with SF losing out.
Maybe you and the boys in West Belfast need to reflect on WHY?
And dont start the Trumpism of blaming 'Da media' now.
