I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Unfortunately, I see independents and chaos as the biggest winners in this election. Really difficult to see where a government is coming from.
FF/SF/Aontu/II probably the best bet.
Same, it's a well known fact that all you need is ID though so no big deal, do check the register just to be safe though
Yes I have and yes I am. I only changed it before the the European elections and referrendum this year. It came then in no time. Maybe the post man or Woman has posted it in the wrong house by mistake 😞.
A medium collapse of the Sinn Fein vote from 24.5% to less than 20% is already priced in.
If FG collapse as well to below 20%, then we will really have a problem forming a government.
Are suggesting they would be mutiny among some members.
There was a prominent ex IRA member in the cabinet in the Rainbow coalition and in a govt a good few years later a very senior ex IRA man was among those who the cabinet answered to.
There is still a strong sense that SF are connected to criminality. Now whether or not that connection is valid, it's there. With high-profile examples in the media including MLMD's golden child Dowdall's connection to Hutch, the murder trial, and his familys own waterboarding of an alleged fraudster, like a dog with fleas, it will be a long time for many to think that SF are not connected to crime.
It might not affect them in no 1s but it may cost them transfers, others might draw a line about putting their local FG boot boy in to a seat.
I've no doubt - people forgive & forget over time. However, those murders are not that long ago for many and to have the murderers celebrated in the face of their victims families just reminds us that SF haven't changed yet.
Harris comes across as the most insincere person in the debates and interviews. If people didn’t like Varadkar I don’t know how they can trust Harris.
The way the numbers are looking in the latest polls the 3 big parties are neck and neck. Taking account for the extra seats I'd expect all of their sitting TDs to keep their seats, maybe one or 2 losses
Interestingly there's a 40% undecided/smaller party result and a suggestion that FF are bizarrely the most transfer friendly. Most likely for me is FF to take the lions share and be the biggest party with enough seats for a 3-way coalition with FG and Labour
If I were a betting man I'd take that money and use it to invest in a health insurance plan because public healthcare is f****d
I think there's a rising anti FFG sentiment out there.
How a government gets formed only time will tell.
Inform the clerk at the polling station, they'll take a note and watch out for personation if the card has been intercepted in any way.
Not a chance of that government formation, apart from anything else it wouldn't last any time.
Transfers are going to be more significant than normal, their is a lot of disillusionment and anger out there, but a resignation as well. We might see a lot of small parties getting nods from people than normal, if they can survive the first few eliminations.
I think they the FF/SF/Aontú/II coalition is a likely runner.
There will be immense tension from the last 2 in that to the first 2 though and vice versa.
They're the only parties they know? I mean there's still plenty voting for fringe parties.
Huge portions of the voting Irish public are wedded to their parties regardless of policies. You only need to look at how many won't even entertain SF due to the troubles but wpupd probablyagree woth a lot of their policies.
You can choose to believe that the status quo is indictive of no issue but I respectfully disagree.
That's overwhelmingly a middle class sentiment.
Yes Seth, that is what I was saying and I think MLMD is aware of that perception among some.
I will do. Good luck to anyone trying yopretend to be me lol they got their work but out lol.
We'll see the status quo prevail. It doesn't mean the average person doesn't feel strongly about immigration.
It's more indicative of neither of the two parties that have always governed the Republic having different views on it.
I’d offer short odds on a FF/FG return. It speaks volumes that all of a sudden Michael Martin has totally ruled out a SF coalition. He’s flashing a leg at Simon already. SF might make ground but there’s no way they’ll assemble a government. Aontu (even with Tiobin) might be on board. But the vast majority of “anti-government” independents that will get in don’t want to go near a position of governance. If neither parties have any substantial policies how do you start a programme.
Well SF are just as radical free market as FG on it and probably much more so in a large section of the party.
PbP, the Greens, Soc Dems sound like they have been reading Ayn Rand when it comes to immigration.
Voters and their parties often have very different views on key policies.
It's FFG or another election. I'd be pleasantly but thoroughly shocked if anything else prevailed.
I can't remember who said it, it might have been Ivan Yates - but before this campaign started somebody mentioned that the FG polling number is too high because it's people being asked which party do they support without people realising that their local FG TD they have voted for for years has stood down and now it's a brand new face they are looking at. As we are getting closer to the election it's becoming obvious that people are realising if nothing else that they can't vote for the same person again, so the FG numbers have slid.
With the strong independent numbers though - I wonder how transfer friendly they will be. Could be a case of lots of number 1s and nothing else? People who support FF, FG, Labour, Soc Dems, Greens, may be more minded to transfer to other parties before the various Indys?
I can understand this.
The Jean McConville stuff and the Garda killer lines are points scoring shots aimed at SF but if they wasn’t shadiness to it all SF could really retort these. MLM when asked about these can do nothing but concede the fact.
The handing of the Kanturk issue caused all the damage.
Again if its that big of an issue people would be looking for other parties who support their beliefs if they arent then i don't see how its possible to claim its being under represented in polling when the evidence of elections which is the only real result that matters suggests its actually being over represented in polling.
If people really care about immigration they would vote with that in mind, they arent doing that therefore they don't care as much as you or others are claiming, its quite simple.
I disagree. It could have the numbers, and there are a number of common policies.
All four parties (FF, SF, Aontu, II) are broadly anti-Green in their approach, favouring roads over public transport. They all have nativist/nationalist roots, have deeply conservative elements in their party. The likes of Peader Tobin, Eamon Cuiv and II would share some policies. They would also be likely to actively pursue (albeit futilely) a United Ireland.
Certainly such a grouping would be more compatible together than any of them with Fine Gael.
Yes, transfers are going to be more significant than normal, and someone put up the transfer pattern earlier from the Irish Times poll. Very good news for FF, stable for FG, but SF only picking up 13% in transfers.
Sure on the basis of pre election commitments. But is it any different from giving their voters the middle finger by going into coalition with FG last time?
They could spin it, the electorate has spoken, for the good of the country, we have to govern for all not just FF voters etc
And as long as they keep portfolios like Justice, Finance, Foreign Affairs, Defence etc out of SF's hands that spin could fly.
An FF/FG coalition is one thing if they're both equal partners. But FG are not going to be happy going into a coalition with FF in a junior role.
So the only solution is to either offer FG parity and rotating Taoiseach, or offer SF a junior coalition role.
MM would be between a rock and a hard place.
I suspect many FF TDs would not be happy with an equal partners FG coalition if they've just given FG a kicking at the ballot box.
MM will priortise keeping his TDs happy in the short term, and can worry about what his voters think in 5 years time.
Aontú will have 1 (or possibly 2) TDs. Independent Ireland aren't a real party and I can see them crumbling as soon as there's a difficult decision. It doesn't scream stable.
