I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
If 3 MNCs relocate we are down 10 billion straight away. Harris said that.
It's possible in theory, but highly unlikely. In order of least to most likely to lose seats it would be Cairns, Bacik and then O'Gorman.
Based purely on numbers last time and overall popularity I'd say Ossian Smith is the only Green who will likely keep his seat
I’d be surprised if she does retain it.
In any normal circumstances, she'd be gone - scraped in due to a huge error in other parties vote management.
Being a party leader may be enough to haul her across now.
Why so?
(Hoping for an answer beyond that you disagree with her particular brand of politics)
Just looked again and realised it a 3 not a 4. Still think she will make it though.
Except FFG are the parties that have brought in all of the FDI; you forgot that part.
SF would do little for SMEs and drive out the MNCs.
A vote for jobs and big business is clearly a vote for FFG.
I think Coppiunger will be fairly comfortable and the last seat will be between ROG and the Labour guy…
well as a farmer their stance on farming is more extreme than the greens.and that’s disastrous
Go to page 40. I wouldn't call that disastrous, or anything close to disastrous. The opposite in fact
That will be a hard question for FG. Do they want yet another term in government and risk being subsumed by FF over time?
Remember, at the last election there was strong hints from many in FG that they would stay out of power. But Covid happened, and they stood up for the good of the nation.
Harris may well want to go back in, but its not entirely up to him.
No it's not
The doom and gloom been pushed by some is just to fulfill an agenda against he current government
Name me the SME's and Irish entreprenerus who have been hampered?
FFG are perfectly happy in a coalition. There is no reason to suspect they wont continue in the same arrangement.
Talks of subsuming each other jist arent relevant; they will each have 5yrs to show their individual identitiy to the electorate.
They have both said categorically they will not govern with SF this term, and why would they do so anyway?
FF and FGs policies are very closely aligned; SFs are way out left and anti business.
If FG are looking at the long play it would be the smart move.
If FF made the stupid decision, which I don't think they will do, to join up with SF they will die and come next election will be more or less dead in the water. Supporters will leave in their droves if they are stuck in with SF.
FG sitting in opposition and watching SF make a complete balls of it while saying "I told you so" means they could flick back to a huge majority.
Do I think this will happen? no because FF won't join SF and as I said if they do, they will be dead as a political party in Ireland
Remember, at the last election there was strong hints from many in FG that they would stay out of power.
Yes but I never took them seriously. Once FF set its face against a deal with SF the new government could only be FF-FG in some form, or else we were headed for another election, and whoever took the blame for that, in this scenario presumably FG, would take an almighty hammering at the polls. Irrespective of covid IMO FF-FG was the only feasible government. And will be again this time if Martin maintains his position on SF.
A party that should have been deserted after 2008 are going to have it's members 'leave in droves' as a result of a coalition with SF? Are you having a laugh here?
Right but that's you disagreeing with her parties politics for personal reasons as opposed to hard-headed analysis of why you think she will lose her seat.
She got elected last time as a relative unknown. Her standing has only gone from strength to strength since then. She was one of the more impressive new TDs in the last Dail and has become the leader of her party since then.
Regarding farming, it's not like that was going to be a big part of her vote anyway. Michael Collins and the FF & FG candidates will be fighting over that vote. At the same time she has the left lane all to herself with no serious challengers from Labour, Sinn Fein and Green. That vote is likely to end up transferring to her. Meanwhile FG are shooting themselves in the foot by running 2 candidates.
Why would they have deserted in 2008?
Just shows you ignorance on the crash and what happened.
If we listened to the likes of SF around that time we would be crippled as a country now.
So you don't think Ireland relying on a handful of companies for a large percentage of it's corporate tax is not fragile? Obviously I hope they stay but we seriously need to stop putting all our eggs in one basket like we do now. If Google and Apple alone decided to move out of Ireland that would cause serious problems for us.
IIRC it was 7% in the poll, I'd call that low. It was massively hyped during the locals and Euros, we had journos stationed down at the canal in Dublin giving us hourly updates on tents, and as soon as the election was over it disappeared. It has featured in many debates I've listened to in this campaign and has had plenty of coverage in the MSM, yet only 7%. One of the notable things is that when people are asked about issues and many who mention immigration when pushed about how it affects them, they either can't answer or blather some rubbish they've heard somewhere. It's not an issue for the vast majority of people.
Because they drove the country off a cliff. They brazened it out and you think that they will leave in droves if they coalesce with another party? What a stretch.
I think it's quite possible that Fianna Fail get significantly more seats than Fine Gael in this election.
That poll is very bad for Fine Gael and I think all their incumbents not running again is going to hit them harder than anticipated. When you go constituency by constituency there's an awful lot of places where it looks like Fianna Fail will outdo them just off the back of having an incumbent, or Fine Gael making a dog's dinner of their succession plans.
If that happens and FG are unwilling to go in to government as the smaller party without a rotating Taoiseach, and FF stuck to their word in not going on with Sinn Fein, then another election be a possibility?
It would keep us all entertained at least.
Has anyone here got their voting cards yet? No one I know has including myself :( . Hopefully this week.
I hope you are wrong about that.
No, I even checked the electoral register and I am still on it but no sign of ballot card. Co. Galway, if it is relevant
As sad and damaging as this whole farce is, I mean the running of the country! We are looking at comedy come Friday and the next election, when after several more years of nothing changing or indeed, getting worse. FFG give SF the keys to power…
Literally FFG being so bad, that they gift SF power… So who do you blame more if things did implode under SF? SF or FFG?
Yes. well over a week now.
you love FFG, we get it! The media and voters all know, how reckless FFG current spending plans are, what do you have to say about that?
It's funny. I followed the US election coverage for 6+ months. It's been less than 6 weeks and I'm already sick of this one.
FF & FG would figure something out to prevent the nightmare scenario of another election. Maybe Harris have the top job for a slightly shorter term?
