I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Soc Dems would be ecstatic with 10.
I'm gonna say FF have in the region of 40-45 and FG 30ish
And with it being so close to election, it cannot be easily disregarded. Harris should pull a sickie for debate and hand the reigns over to PD! If only
I am not so sure that they will reach 20%. They are losing votes hand over fist in working class Dublin.
The detail in the opinion polls indicate that their vote is soft.
That's not what I asked. You're boring me now.
I know it wouldn't happen, but would Paschal Donohue be any better as leader? A big issue Fine Gael have is that they come across as know-it-alls and smug/entitled. They preach that their way is the best. Paschal does the exact same.
Is it not still in the top 3 issues behind housing and cost of living? Or perhaps you are referring to a different poll, one I am referring to is from the Independent yesterday, I think.
Losing votes or losing 1st preference. I think a lot of the various people they are losing votes to will be cut early and still be transfer friendly to them.
You asked for evidence of what the govt has delivered in the last 5 years. You got some. 60k more homes than SF have built, over the past 24 months, for starters.
FG still have the strongest first preference in Dublin across the 3 main parties, according to the latest IT poll.
FG 24% vs 17% FF and 16% SF.
No, joint 4th with the economy.
Cost of living far away number 1, then house prices then healthcare.
immigration and economy at only 7% and economy is part of cost of living; so in reality, immigration is 5th.
The cost of renting is also an odd one because that is massively linked to cost of living and house prices.
Side note I know, but where is Varadkar? Had plenty to say a while ago about future direction but silent since campaign began. No such silence from Enda.
You would assume/hope he was told to stay well clear of the build up, although let's be honest here, he was more capable than the current leader
Thanks.
Poll I saw in the Independent yesterday was definitely different, had housing as 1, cost of living at 2, Immigration 3.
If economy is part of cost of living then immigration is 4th not 5th
Nope I said policy and legislation. Houses are built every year by every government. This goes back to who gets the credit for Ireland's economic success. I give it to Irish people working hard and MNCs. What did FFG do specifically in last 5 years to help?
FDI are already concerned about our housing crisis and traffic chaos. FFG actually caused this. It's their fault we are less competitive.
The new planning act, which comes into force next year, will speed up housing applications and restrict nimbys taking out judicial reviews.
We are not uncompetitive; we have one of the strongest economies & best jobs market on the planet, precisely because we are ultra competitive.
FF/FG might be one of the only options going forward but I can see nobody bar the Greens propping them up. But will the Green even get seats?
The government will get a certain amount of "up yours" voting but I think the Greens will get it more than most.
Last 5 years I said. How about this link from 4 days ago.
IDA warned about "intense and aggressive" FDI competition
In pre-budget discussions, the investment agency said that the availability of energy and water as well as the shortage and cost of housing were creating challenges in attracting business.
Or an international view from last year
Ireland's housing crisis undermining new investment - IDA
But there are fresh warnings that the country's housing crisis is undermining its competitiveness and its ability to compete for new investment.
In the last week the head of Ireland's inward investment agency, the IDA, and his predecessor have used public platforms to emphasise the economic risks of the housing shortage.
A collapse in housing construction after Ireland's property and banking crisis has led to an infrastructure shortfall which has left young people in particular facing soaring rents and overcrowding.
And for the final time, FFG will outbuild SF in terms of new homes! That includes housing infrastructure, obviously.
Nobody is going to solve the housing issue by xmas; but over the next 5 years, FFG will outbuild SF.
I want to see more houses, I am not sure about you.
Dont forget also that there are still question marks from banks over issuing mortgages for SFs state land owned homes. If banks dont lend on those, they just wont be built.
There are way to many "what ifs" with SF, and we really dont need that uncertainly, going into a new Trump term.
I can see nobody bar the Greens propping them up.
Why not? Soc Dems and Labour seem pretty keen. Wouldn't be surprised to see all three involved if the Greens had a meaningful contribution to make…
He can apologise until the cows come home this week but the perception will be of a person, party and government which is happy to ignore and who just don't care. I can't see him shifting that in a few days.
It's possible that the leaders of all 3 of the smaller left wing parties will lose their seats. Labour, Social Democrats and Greens and that the People Before Crowd come back with more seats than them.
Someone really needs to give Simon a lesson in politics tbh; the more he's back pedaled worse it looks, shocking stuff all round from a so called party leader never mind the Taoiseach.
None of them are safe but I think it's extremely unlikely that all 3 lose their seats.
Holly Cairns is best placed to hold onto hers. Her profile has only risen since the last election and there's plenty of pockets of soft left voters that are all hers in the likes of Kinsale and Clonakilty. I think with FG's drop in the polls the 3 sitting TDs get returned handily here.
I think Bacik will hold onto hers as well. The SF and Green vote will likely be down and she'll do well in transfers in that constituency.
O'Gorman, like all Greens, is going to have a fight on his hands to hold on to his seat.
I wouldn't read too much into his absence. I think it is customary for a recently departed leader, who is not running for re-election, to stay out of the limelight during an election campaign. It suits both the new and the old leader that way.
Enda Kenny is long enough departed that it's ok for him to make an appearance. It also helps that he is fondly remembered by many (Michael Martin won't be making any appearances with Bertie Ahern for that reason).
Bacik seems by far the safest. I can't think how she won't retain it actually looking at the line up.
ROG could be in a 2 way fight with Coppinger for the final seat, although that cons is a tough one to predict
Irelands prosperity is built on sand. If one or two major companies pull out we are in trouble. FF/FG have done little to encourage SMEs or Irish entrepreneurs. Our entire economic model is very fragile and shifts in global trends could really screw us.
Its not a dilemma, they have been in partnership for years now!
I'd say the vast majority of both FF and FG voters are more than happy for the status quo to continue, when the only other option is SF tanking the economy and housing.
I would be absolutely shocked if Cairns lost her seat. I don't even see it as a possibility.
