I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Interesting to see too in the poll how low immigration is as a priority for people. It was massively over hyped in the locals and Euros by the media. Should put paid to the chances of the racist right.
Thankfully and rightfully Housing is seen as the number 1 priority it seems.
FG will not accept that. They will want an equal role, with a rotating Taoiseach or nothing.
You'd wonder what the number cut off is to not make it credibly feasible? 10? 5? who knows.
Because it's in bad faith, dishonest, never mind incorrect.
How about stating something positive this government has done? Anything?
Not sure I'd read it as being very low - it is joint 4th highest priority, and is higher than the cost of rent, climate change, law and order, or taxation. Given that this is the first poll I've seen where it isn't in the top 3, I wouldn't be so sure the focus on immigration was "hype" - while it is unlikely to get many, if any, single-issue candidates elected, this isn't unusual in Ireland. The immigration issue hasn't gone away, and it is likely to become an increasing problem for the new government, assuming that they continue down the same road as we have been on heretofore, leading to further social unrest.
No, FG will take whatever offer they get from FF. They cannot afford to be seen to push FF into SF's arms, as that would totally undermine their demonisation of SF. If FF do end up going in with SF, FG will make sure that is seen as a deliberate choice on FF's part.
Lowry, Healy - Rae etc. would have achieved some things.
But I agree, even though they may have gotten say a bypass, it wasn't like other counties weren't getting bridges and bypasses anyway.
Huge dilemma for FF. Be seen to enable FG again? They'd be ordering their own downfall. If these numbers occur in the GE I expect internal strife in FF to raise it's head again. Can MM hold the line?
If the numbers are reasonably comfortable for another FF-FG government, and they should be even on a combined 40% FPV per the latest poll, and Martin is pushing strongly in that direction, how many in FF have such a strong preference for an SF deal that they would push back publicly, even to the point of trying to defenestrate Martin? I would say precious few if it came to it…
Was Lowry ever involved as a "kingmaker" or coalition partner while serving as an independent ?
Jackie got a package in 2007 alright. Can't see the sons doing the same as they have gone too far down the anti-establishment rabbit hole.
nothing will change as we have very poor opposition tbh.
Sinn Fein had their chance last time and blew it.
FFG will become FGF.
All of those metrics have improved. You talk as if no homes have been built in the last 5 years.
Over 60k homes have been built in the last 24 months alone, never mind the last 5 years. That's equal to building Cork city from scratch in 24 months.
We know the numbers are likely to rise even further from next year onwards and exceed 40k annually for the govt term.
There is also a large childrens hospital coming, huge investment in infrastructure, best educated population in europe with the best job opportunities across the continent, full employment and so forth.
Google is your friend here.
Lowry was given a bunch of state board seats to hand out at the same time as JHR got them. Hard to find reference to that online these days though…
JHR, Blayney and Fox were required to keep the 97-02 Goverment stable; FF had 77 seats and the PDs 4 (they actually had an awful election) and they lost Ray Burkes seat to Labour within the first year; so even with the CC having been an opposition TD; they needed to keep those three happy.
If the numbers are what they are, FG will step back and let FF and SF sort it out.
This may actually suit many in FG, especially given that so many of the PP retired this time out.
FF and especially SF will not be happy with working together as the narrative has been built around not working together.
Whether you own a home or not is irrelevant.
Which other party could lead a govt this term? Thats the question we are asking.
If as expected FF will be the biggest party and have a nice gap between SF or FG, then MM job is assured. It will be up to SF to compromise to go in with FF.
A proper coalition will see compromise from all participants. Will we see a dominant FF accommodate a weaker FG again? IMO they do so at their peril.
Doctor Conor Reddy too (think he got his Ph.D last year)
He has the brains not to use the title. I heard Rory Aherne wanted the Doctor title on his posters.
Completely brain dead.
Obviously you can't take the percentage in a poll and turn that into seat count, but just out of curiosity, if the seats won match the results of the poll you'd have the following numbers:
This won't be the results, but for fun - if they were, what is the likely government setup? 88 is the magic number. FF + FG + Soc Dems + Labour = 87 and assuming a seat bonus that could work.
But would Soc Dems go in with Labour? I could see one or the other but both? And would FF & FG want 2 additional parties? Also - if the gap was only 4 seats then you have to assume the rotating taoiseach stays on the table, but with FF getting first choice?
Doctor on a poster for me means the candidate is a GP. If you have a PhD then jog on with your Doctor title on posters…
They could go full comedian and talk about rewarding the taxpayer again... lol !
I think give or take a few seats you're not far off if the opinion polls are accurate. FFG - 70 seats, need another 18. They can usually rely on the support of 6-7 independents in any given election, the Healy-Raes and Michael Lowry would probably back them for the right deal, could they find another 15 independents to make deals with? Might be a stretch - but if you include the 7 Green seats you might have a winner
Also fair to assume FFG won't talk to SF or Aontú
SD's were formed from a split with Labour so they might not be as willing to get into bed together
You think FG would do this even if Martin explicitly says he wants to do cut another deal with them and would only talk to SF as a last resort?
What did they expect, the government's here have caused more misery and are bigger gangsters, than hutch could dream of... that carer Harris scenario, a prime example
Hutch has never robbed half my income over a pittance... who are the criminals?
Tax is now robbery. Jesus Christ…
Would you stop with the hyperbole? Nobody has robbed half of your income! You pay tax and in return you can avail of various services, facilities, etc.
That's some bombshell of a poll.
Varadkar was made FG leader on the basis that the electorate would like him and he could take FG to the next level. That didn't pan out. Is history about to repeat itself?
Tomorrow night's debate has become absolutely pivotal - especially with so many undecideds.
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