I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
The snow will be gone by the weekend though.
Ah we know plenty in Leinster House like a wee sniff in the toilets, but I doubt it will be that extreme to cancel an election
They've no chance of getting a majority. Focusing resources on the handful who have a reasonable chance of getting elected is logical.
Nobody is running enough candidates to get a majority.
That time they got to baton charge the English football hooligans in Lansdowne Road in 1995!
Or that time they for to forcefully remove the Debenhams workers. Looked very happy with themselves then too
May Day 2004 too or any number of water charges protests or farmers blockades of meat plants...oh wait they didn't do that one!!
Add in the student protests and then when the young ones decided to have a few outdoor drinks during covid in Dublin city
No sign them when Zappone had a party or the clifden during covid though
There is not much chance of this election going ahead with the snow that is falling down now in the west. Sure if somebody slipped on the way to vote they can sue the government and get a chunk of that apple money.
What on earth is with your utterly bizarre obsession with cancelling the election cause of snow? If it is supposed to be funny it isn't.
Classic from Michael Fitzmaurice there on Primetime. Between a Ffer and a FGer the conversation was about pinching policy ideas,
‘In fairness to the two boys beside me, they ate the dinner and took the menu too’. 😁
I was driving through a constituency today & saw a poster mounted for a councillor looking to be elected a TD. I doubt the person will get elected but if they were, what happens to the council seat? Will it mean another election?
I think they get to ‘co opt’ another of their choosing onto the council without a vote Their party if they’re a member
Themselves if they’re an independent
Officially the replacement protocol depends on each councils rules but fundamentally it is as above.
Party co-options are defined by national law. Party is the one you were elected for, not the one you represent if they are different. e.g. had some of the Soc Dem councillors originally elected for Labour in 2014 been elected to the Dáil in 2016, Labour would have got the replacement.
Independent rules can be set by the council; but I believe all of them let the outgoing Independent nominate some. If someone dies, that has the biggest variance - some councils ask you to provide a list of replacements for that circumstance, and some do countback - the last person who didn't get elected in your area gets it instead. There was such confusion over what to do when Anthony Flynn died that Dublin City council just ran one councillor down for three years.
There was a court case when the elected party didn't exist anymore when Mick Barry got elected to the Dáil; but it was settled out of court I believe - this was as one of the party registrations in the overall AAA/S-PBP setup was let lapse.
There would have been a substantial number of councillors sitting for Labour but elected for Democratic Left or the Workers Party in the 94 Town Council and 91 County Council elections; must check if there were any oddities there - particular as the rump WP still existed.
I can't quite decide if it's disingenuous on newly elected counsellors throwing their hat in to the ring for the GE. Like getting a new job but waiting to jump as soon as a better one comes up straight away.
And let's be honest, some of these elected at council level would do, or could do much more for the constituents who voted for them locally than if they were elected to the Dail (Depending on your party)
I see nothing wrong with getting a job and then looking for a better one. Take your opportunities when they come.
I agree though that some are better off as councillors. It's all Willie O'Dea should have ever been because he does nothing as a national politician. Same for a lot of the parish pump crowd.
I put a high price on loyalty, but yes, in some cases, a better opportunity shouldn't also be sniffed at, be it, us regular joe's on the street or politicians
What has got to do with the thread title ?
A response to a post about Guards, probably best to start there and ask that person!
Betting odds were the only reliable predictor of the results of the US Presidential election .
This time. They were an absolute disaster the last time if I remember correctly.
Basically loads of people vote for Trump every time so if Trump wins your theory works.
I do believe FG are in for a shock, voted for them in 2020 but cant bring myself to this time, SDs, an independent and greens will be as far as I go on my ballot.
I keep waiting for this election to fire but with only 7 days left now it feels like it might not at all.
That's probably good for FF/FG
If the papers have any good dirt they've managed to sit on, it'll be on Sundays front pages (or tomorrow if its the Irish Times/Examiner group). I'm not expecting any.
Bookies dont like to lose money , the polls had them neck and neck and were calling for a dead heat while the odds shortened on Trump to good odds on and indicated a landslide which indeed it was . It begs the question ; are polls loaded on a consistent basis ?
The US Presidential election was a highly liquid market. For something like that the bookie has no input whatsoever on where the price ends up. It's entirely driven by the weight of money. The bookie makes money by either shaving the odds of both prices, or in the case of the exchanges (like Betfair), taking a commission from the winner. The odds were shorter for Trump than the polls suggested they should be because a lot of very wealthy people made huge bets on Trump.
Either way, regardless of the outcome, the bookie should make money.
In the case of a small illiquid market like an Irish constituency then the prices will be heavily influenced by the bookie. In order to mitigate against risk what they typically do is give terrible prices for every single candidate in the race. They will also heavily restrict the amount that any one punter can put on a race (since they won't be able to offset that risk with other bookmakers).
Soc Dems did themselves no favours with effectivley postponing the new 24hr E spine bus in Dublin, which covers a large part of the city.
Was listening to Ivan Yates talking about Dublin-Rathdown. He reckons Catherine Martin is in big trouble. I had assumed with that moving to a 4-seater that she was a certainty to get re-elected. If her seat isn't safe, well then the Greens really could be wiped out.
What's his reasoning behind it ?
He has it in for the Greens. They have been holding at 6-8% in Dublin, which if concentrated where they have seats, sees them retaining them.
I was listening to that too, I was surprised, I still think she'll survive.
He's made a few calls I'm not sure about - Labour in Dublin West, PBP in Carlow-Kilkenny & DNW to take seats, they're not outlandish but I think its a bit of a stretch and O'Gorman to lose in Dublin West though that wouldn't be a shock, I suspect he'll hold on.
