I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Heavens above you'll never get good women to enter politics if they're not allowed have children.
What an utterly backwards view.
She has contributed extremely well in the Dail. Smart lady, honest too. Maybe educate yourself before you defend a person who made a fool of themselves.
Hotmail is not in her constituency.
Who said women in politics aren’t allowed to have children?
Are you just counting up the first 3/4/5 in each market though and assigning the respective seats? It's largely pointless, the only way to do it accurately is to assign the odds derived percentage, remove the healthy bookmaker margin applied and then assign a formula to work out a mid point over/under. Boyles trading room will have that excel file to hand which is where the outright prices are coming from
For example, FF would be expected to gain more seats and be stronger overall along the western seaboard from Galway up to Sligo. However FG seemingly have 3 absolute locks along there in Roche, Dillon and Feighan whereas FF only have 1 in Anne Rabitte.
FF's route to most seats will be a lot of scrambling for the last two seats in rural constituencies
For those at the back of the room: betting odds have NOTHING to do with the probability of a candidate getting elected and EVERYTHING to do with the bookie ensuring they make money regardless of the result.
It'd be great if people could discuss gambling in the gambling forum and leave it out here.
No I didn't. Stop misrepresenting what I said. I said it was stupid to take on such an important role while having a big change in your life. Nothing to do with women getting pregnant.
There's been an awful lot of "once in a generation" weather events lately though...
Rubbish. I said it was stupid to take on such an important role whilst going through a major change in your life.
Will the disgraceful conditions this government have refugees living in become an election issue?
https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2024/1119/1481766-crooksling-ipas/
I do not. But I have eyes and ears.
You have eyes and ears but no brain it seems.
No proof is right…
And you ignore the bailout and golden parachutes every single time. Blinkered indeed.
So women who might get pregnant, or are of child bearing age should not go for any sort of promotion or anything?
Utter rubbish you're spouting...
A new low for boards when you are attacking women for getting pregnant
Baffling to the amount of sh*t posted on here but this has to be the most disgusting stuff I have seen in a long time
A bit of cop on
So I assume in your view no woman should become a Minister if she's planning on having a baby within 5 years of taking up the role? What a waste of oxygen you must be
No because I already said her powers are transferred over so the State isn't affected. You're insulting me based on something I've not said.
Fairly common sensical view that the leader of a major is absent from a general election campaign and the dumbness of this strategy. You can ignore my views if you want but politics is a tough business.
Of course, with free speech, we do allow people to be misogynistic, however, we are also allowed to call them out for it as well. Anyone not voting for Holly Cairns or Helen McEntee because they took maternity leave is a misogynist. Simple as that.
They have the democratic right not to vote for her, we have the democratic to call them out for what they are.
That's one of the most basic misunderstandings of betting I've ever seen, regardless of how many words you put in capitals. The bookie makes money REGARDLESS of the result? Do you think if Man United beat Ipswich this weekend, that a bookmaker will make money on that game?
Historical data has shown the betting markets on Irish elections especially to be a very accurate guide, such as the Sinn Fein surge in 2020 which was way ahead of the pollsters. Trump another good recent example, 50/50 in the polls but the betting markets strongly predicted a Trump win
Some of the comments around mat leave and pregnancy i found to be pretty dis-tasteful when reading them last night and i'd very much champion women in business(or politics) and i hope Holly can retain her seat.
Looking at her cons, it seems it could be a bit of a dog fight, but i believe she has people out canvassing on her behalf(well obviously) (saw a story online anyway)
Harris having to explain that FG are 'not on the backfoot' in the campaign is telling. Embroiled in controversy from the off and it's still coming.
What's the saying about 'when you are explaining…'
I'd say Holly Cairns is safe enough. Most people aren't mysoginistically shallow enough to judge a woman harshly for being pregnant - most will recognise that she is a good politician and will wish her well with her newborn baby.
You'd like to think so, she has an elegant style of speaking in the Dail that resonates, it does with me anyway.
In fairness, nobody is talking about not voting for her for getting pregnant, the point being made is her party's campaign effort is affected due to her absence. Is this disputed?
Is it though? OK, i'd have probably have had Gary front the debate, but he's not deputy. But in what aspect is the campaign being affected? My local candidate and Catherine Murphy have called to my door, only James Lawless was the other. So that's 2 out of 10 or 11 candidates
She scraped in last time due to poor vote management by FF and FG; her coopted councillor lost the seat in June. A tiny shift against her and she's gone.
The news surrounding her pregnancy has informed me that Holly Cairns is actually the Social Democrat leader and not Cian O’Callaghan. Not sure if it was brought up on Monday night's debate or maybe it was and I missed it.
So for me personally the news of her pregnancy has helped get the social democrats into my head moreso than the party was there before
Do TDs get paid maternity or do they get the welfare maternity benefit like most the country? I'd hoped Helen McEntee to have changed the law when she went on maternity to force employers to continue paying the staff wages but if you want a policy like that you'd need a party of the left to give a hand
Mat leave is based on stamps(do they still call it that?) paid, so they would be as entitled as the next person, the mat leave law was passed last month i believe in respect time time off, although it's not a story i followed closely
In a betfair type market, the bookie always makes money, you're laying against other punters. If manu beat Ipswich, the bookie will make money (unless they've done something really stupid or, more likely, are running a promotion to get people hooked).
Trump was odds on to lose badly in 2016 and was also had winning odds multiple times in 2020.
Bets track user sentiment of people who gamble.
Il leave it here because it's way off topic now but no, that's all incorrect bar the part about Betfair which wasnt referred to originally. Bookmakers generally lose if a favorite wins but win long-term because of applied margin to every market and selection within that market. 99% of the cash staked (or sentiment as you say) has absolutely no effect on prices, those are set by the sharpest market makers and the odds compilers themselves
https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-resources/en/educational/how-often-does-a-bookmaker-balance-their-book/9h22vfsvklj69ll9
Yes but a small number of employers, including the public sector pay their staff their wages during maternity leave
