I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
I didn't deflect, I pointed out that because 'members' believe something it does not follow that is what will happen and cited the party you vote for as an example. We also seen that doors are opened when certain scenarios arise and no leaders word is his bond as we and the country's main media outlets saw last time out with Micheal Martin.
Keep dreaming, it ain't going to happen.
Sinn Féin has disclosed the details of its property portfolio for the first time — and it’s less than half the size of the network of properties the party was thought to own.The party says it owns 19 properties on both sides of the island, including 16 constituency offices. The buildings include three head offices in Dublin and Belfast, collectively worth at least €2m, and seven offices owned by local constituency organisations in the Republic.
Sinn Féin has disclosed the details of its property portfolio for the first time — and it’s less than half the size of the network of properties the party was thought to own.
The party says it owns 19 properties on both sides of the island, including 16 constituency offices. The buildings include three head offices in Dublin and Belfast, collectively worth at least €2m, and seven offices owned by local constituency organisations in the Republic.
Is this it? The own their own constituency offices?
Hahahahaha
You'd swear they were evil rent extracting landlords by the way some went on in this thread.
And yet there are actual rent extracting landlords in Dail Eireann, with FF TDs making up the majority who extract wealth from tenants.
The stink of cordite still whiffs about the place.
Based on the level of apathy that surrounds this election, I am going to predict that we are going to see the lowest turnout in the history of the state.
NewsTalk got Ivan Yates to revisit the podcast that he did in 2020 where he goes through the constituencies one by one and calls who he thinks will get the seats. He's got about 30 of them done at this stage. You can find them at the link below or in a podcast feed (search for "Calling it")
Why would the richest party in the country stop caring about the value of their property when every action they have taken maintains that value? They are the biggest landlord in the Dáil and able to take advantage of the different loopholes used by REIT.
Again, rationality has gone out the window here, thanks for confirming.
These are the full list of TD with property (2023):
Richard Bruton (FG); Colm Burke (FG); Thomas Byrne (FF); Sean Canney (Ind); Michael Creed (FG); Pa Daly (SF); Stephen Donnelly (FF); Alan Dillon (FG); Frank Feighan (FG); Norma Foley (FF) Noel Grealish (Ind); Johnny Guirke (SF); Seán Haughey (FF); Michael Healy-Rae (Ind); Paul Kehoe (FG); Alan Kelly (Lab); James Lawless (FF); Brian Leddin (Green); Charlie McConalogue (FF); Michael McNamara (Ind); Michael Moynihan (FF); Carol Nolan (Ind); Seán Ó Fearghaíl (FF); John Paul Phelan (FG); Matt Shanahan (Ind); Brendan Smith (FF); Robert Troy (FF) and Leo Varadkar (FG)
In case anyone was wondering the lowest turnout for a general election in the history of the state was actually the very first general election under the free state in 1923: 61.3% turnout (the aftermath of the civil war may have had something to do with that). Second place was 2002 with 62.6%. Highest turnout was 1933 with 81.3%.
This century:
A factor in the lower turnouts in recent times is that the voter rolls were a mess. Many people were registered in multiple constituencies due to the de-centralised nature of the voter rolls. The electoral commission are due to create a centralised register. I have no idea if this has actually happened yet. If they have cleaned up the register then that should actually boost turnout.
He hasn't done my own constituency (Limerick City) yet but his 2020 edition was very wrong so I'd take what he says with a pinch of salt for the 2024 edition
10 party leaders will go head-to-head(-to-head-to-head-to-head-to-head-to-head-to-head-to-head-to-head) tonight. Could be interesting but will probably be a mess as well. I think it will benefit the 3 big parties
He got caught out badly by the late SF surge last time (which had a knock-on affects with all of their surplus transfers that went to the likes of the Greens and PBP)
It's an absolutely terrible idea. Aine Lawlor could barely control 3 of them(not leaders) and she is capable. I'm assuming it's Katie Hannon? So you can be gaurenteed to be a shitshow from pretty much start to finish
Ide say most of us could get 4 out of 5 in almost every constituency (or 2 or 3 for the smaller ones)..
Yates is just another McDowell giving an opinion on everything and proclaiming himself a guru when he gets one right.
Do you honestly believe a word that comes out of Sinn Fein mouth?
😂
If it was only 19 why have they spent years and years of hiding them
Do you have any evidence of them being the biggest landlord in the dail?
One would presume they are not renting out their constituency and head offices given they are owned by the party and used by the party?
Not a very accurate list.
He called Limerick City on the 31st of January, 8 days before the election, SF were riding high at the time and, while he called the SF and FG seat correctly. However he called FF's Willie O Dea the poll topper with the 4th seat being a 3-way race between an indie named Frankie Daly (apparently Willie O'Dea's choice for 2nd place) FF and Labour
Yes it's a special edition of "upfront" so Katie Hannon
What I'd like to see is something more akin to having MM V SH on one night, MLMD V MM on another and SH V MLMD on a third night. Or even if you took some of the harder right wingers and pitched them against the hard lefties. Might actually bring a bit of excitement to what is otherwise a slow enough campaign so far IMO
I think his predictions are pretty good, considering he's predicting local results in 43 different constituencies.
I think this time he's underestimating the Greens a bit too much as I'm pretty sure he's predicting 0 seats for them. They're definitely going to take a bit of a hammering but that seems like a bit of a stretch considering the multiple seats they have strong chances in.
I think if anything he's sticking a bit too much to his framework of 40-60% of the seats in every constituency going to the government parties, and he's including the Greens in this. He's basing this upon general satisfaction with the current government, as in those satisfied with the government will vote for the government parties, and those dissatisfied will vote for opposition parties. I'm not sure that the Greens are viewed as a continuity vote quite in the same way as Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are by a lot of the electorate.
I think there also a few constituencies where he hasn't quite picked up on the local mood, ie. Galway West where he's predicting two Fianna Fail TDs, and Waterford where he's predicting both John Cummins and Mary Butler to be elected. This again seems to be mainly based on his framework of government/opposition seat percentages.
He does seem to communicate with a lot of people from all parties so he is getting some local information, and in fairness with 170 something seats you couldn't expect him to be on top of all of them.
Overall I'd say it's an enjoyable podcast with some good insights, but certainly not gospel.
There are similar behind paywalls (I mean really, there is a lot of spoonfeeding here) but there tax liabilities alone far outweigh what any other landlords in the Dáil would be turning over (it turns out they could have up to 50 properties).
Why do SF supporters dig even more rather than perform a modicum.of research and then keep embarrassing themselves (though i was surprised to see 1 of them turn tail yesterday than sheepishly re-emerge). timmy, you should know better from previous back and forths.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-restate-accounts-to-include-540000-future-tax-liabilities-on-properties-in-belfast-and-dublin-O4NR74TZVJBYFI5HP63L5JY2QI/
OH ******* HELL. Look at some of the panel…………🤣 I'll watch it for the comedic shitshow it's gonna be. Who's idea was this? Ridiculous
Fair play to her
I think everyone should tell the Ditch to f**k off 😂
Paddy and his little gang of plonkers
As Breezy said, he knows no more than the man on the street with a bit of interest. I wouldn't waste my time.
I saw what he "predicted" for Galway and he pulled that from out of his hole. I'd rather listen to Cluedo who is from that region and seems to know more about what's going on.
I remember a comment he posted last week that Seoige wasn't been well received and this was despite the bookies having her as a dead cert (which has now dramatically changed)
Some politicking going on in RTE?
Would have thought the Prime Time team would have got this gig.
I assume they'll have the 3-way debate?
Miriam has skin in the game
Well Clo, no matter if the Ditch f**k off and f**k off again when they get there, Heather is also a 'property owner' and not in compliance with SIPO too it seems.
LOL, Sometimes SF do make me laugh. Accusing Virgin of bias
I've seen you mention the bookies odds a number of times. Bookies odds have nothing to do with the likelihood of a candidate getting elected and have everything to do with where the money has been bet. The odds will shift to cover the betting patterns so that if candidate X gets elected the bookies still win. Because the volume of betting on Irish elections is so low, a very small amount of money can skew the odds.
Think of horse racing. The horse with the shortest odds is not the horse that the bookies think will win, it's who the crowd have backed to be the favourite. The same applies here, except, as I stated, the number of people needed to shift the odds is tiny.
Sinn Féin are right that Virgin should be hosting a debate, but I don't think it's a bias. It's more that Virgin are cheapskates who will do as little as is possible to operate as a tv station.
I know how it works Dulpit. Probability etc etc. I'm not getting in to this again anyway
Yeah yeah
Go on and tell us another story about you claiming to know her, was it out on the boat?
In the "article" you posted they admitted the so called flats are derelict and they have no idea what they are.
Just more noise for the numpty crew to run around with
Anyone with a small level of intelligence can see this as the noise it is
You have no problem with paedofiles but a couple of derelict rooms and you are all up in arms. Bit of cop on
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