I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Do " independents " ecosystem in other countries? Their existence, is a large part of the problem…
Don't think it's the same with Jackie the father and the two lads now, Lowry would be safe enough alright .
The data on second preferences in today's Irish Independent shows both FF and FG doing better on transfers than SF. That will be important for the last seats.
They would not be 'part of the government' as such but would be pledged to support it, something the HR brothers have family experience of
Would be very surprised if Matty Mcgrath or the two Healy Rae brothers would get involved in any government arrangement, they all prefer to act like county councillors so wouldn't get involved in any major national decisions especially if they were tough ones and likely to be unpopular.Its far easier to stand aside and yap away .
Into all that "freeman of the land" or whatever it's called bollix.
new incarnation of direct democracy apparently
You have to compare like for like polls. The IT Ipsos poll has FG at 25 down one FF and FG at 19 each. However we know that generally FF support is underestimated in most polls as a lot are conducted over mobile phones.
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/elections-2024/fine-gael-holds-six-point-lead-as-opinion-poll-shows-big-jump-for-independents/a943324755.html
In today's Independent there is an article on transfers. It says FF and FG look like transferring to each other at about 70%. They are even getting a stronger transfer from the SD/Green/ Lab block than SF are when have finished there preferences within this block.
If the present trend continues and I think FG have started to strengthen again, ifFF and FG will have a vote share of 45%+ I think they will hit 90 seats or very near it. If tgey are only short a couple of seats or if tgey have a slender majority I think they will opt for a couple like minded Independents. Micheal Lowry has regularly voted with the government, Veronica Murphy and Kate O'Connell if they get elected.
Peter Fitzgerald, Nattie McGrath, the Healy Rae's Noel Grelish are all options to give stability if there is only a slim majority rather than having to give cabinet positions away
Aontu promoting a candidate in Laois who is a teacher and the notable contribution - setting up a residents association. Nothing against any of that but there is a clear absence of alternatives
From the FG manifesto.
"A New Department of Infrastructure. Fine Gael will merge the Department of Transport and the Department of Environment, Climate Change and Communications, as well as the infrastructure part of the Department of Public Expenditure. The OPW will be subsumed into the new department except for the National Monuments Service, which will move to the Department of Housing. A special team reporting to Cabinet will have responsibility for ‘mega projects’ – those worth more than €100 million"
This sounds utterly stupid. More than ever the department of transport needs to be out on its own and be treated as one of the most important portfolios in the government.
As for OPW it's just pure populism. That fekin bike shed should not detract from the important work they do across the country. If they want to split it just leave OPW as an independent national monument service.
He could have said that Willie was wrong to say that. Very simple.
"Liberty Republic"
Sounds like a fekin pop band 🤣
The claim of not being able agree on anything is always thrown at the left but jesus every lad on the far right seems to have his own party.
I believe it's FF, FG, Greens, SF, Labour, Soc Dems, PBP/Solidarity, Independent Ireland, Aontu and Right to Change.
Essentially, every registered political party with at least 1 TD from the previous dail.
This does lead to the nonsense that means Joan Collins, the Right to Change TD, is leader and gets to attend. And she's the only party member running for election. According to Wikipedia there are 18 parties running with more than 1 candidate, so the following are not included: The Irish People, National Party, Ireland First, The Irish Freedom Party, Liberty Republic, Centre Party, Independents 4 change, party for animal welfare, rabharta.
I wouldn't be advocating for any of the non-included to be added, it's a nonsense already having 10 people at the debate.
I think they said "all 9". Maybe that's changed since. Maybe the Healy Rae's or Claire & Mick Wally declared as a party.
I’m not sure but Áine Lawlor referenced it earlier today on TWIP
are the ten listed anywhere?
Presumably had to be ff, fg, sf, greens, labour, sic dems, pbp (if they have such a bourgeois role), aontu, independent Ireland…
Is there another party with a presence in the dail?
Gosh watching Chambers v Naughtin last Monday night, one would think there’s a civil war in the offing. I pity Katie Hannon tomorrow night trying to control 10 leaders
what did you expect him to say though? Realisticly like
He is on record as saying he’s not a fan of SF,so knows the only game in town for him is FF plus FG?
So far it’s been (as usual) with the exception of Willy o’Dea FG who can’t keep the civil war DNA at bay
FF have been quite good at not flaming,which is a strategy FG could well take up,as they seem to have forgotten at times that it’s a joint product they’re trying to sell?
The site next to the Carlton on O'Connell St has been vacant for fifty years. FIFTY years, in the main street of our capital city. How can that be allowed to happen?
Jim asked straight out if he agreed with Willie O'Dea (FF) whether Helen was the worst justice minister ever. He wouldn't answer. Just waffled about not wanting to do personal politics. He wouldn't criticise Willie either.
Helen is incapable of answer simple Yes/No questions.
No law says making up the numbers with independents is less legit than a party
Going in with independents is a crap shoot when it comes to knowing if they'll stay cohesive (they're independents for a reason).
Also you can make an argument that a party with a vote of 4-5% say has a better claim to being in Government versus a bunch of random independents who ran on various platforms in a subset of constituencies.
Hopefully pragmatism wins out but both FG and FF are currently served by left leaning progressive leaders so I could see them listening to the media instead of the people and seeking to form a coalition with the Soc Dems instead of independents
They are currently telling everyone, we will fix this, that, throwing money around like confetti… The budget was only announced and now they have loads of extra ideas on how they want to recklessly hike spending to secure power. Once they have that, we will be back to only endless talk and no action…. Insufferable, can we vote to be taken over by the german government? while maintaining sovereignty?
They have avoided all reform since FG's New Politics document in 2011. The pretended to abolish and then reform the Seanad and then stopped. All talk no action. They put forward bills to reform local government waste and corruption (e.g. "show me the money" planning) and the public office (e.g. more power for SIPO) and then shelved those bills. It is all a lie lads. Voting FFG condones the pretence. They will laugh at those who do.
Zero talk of reform from FFG in this election.
I hear you… But Irish government and huge reform do not go hand in hand…
The FG slide. It's within MOE.
And for FF + SF to make sense it would suggest FG votes go to FF (some might, lots won't) or SF (won't happen). So I don't see the logic of how it happens.
The FG slide continues.
SF will be in coalition with FF yet.
So much for FF and FG pitching themselves as the parties to fix the housing crisis
This news and more to come will certainly turn heads coming up to the election. An election next year would have shown housing situation even worse as Q4 numbers will be lower than expected too, so another reason for the early election
https://www.businesspost.ie/news/we-cant-build-top-developer-takes-aim-at-government-inaction-over-housing-crisis/
You can never compare polls that is what got Selzar caught in Iowa. Her system put too much faith in older people voting and younger people not. To earr is humans to totally **** up it take a computer
