I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Alas, maybe they are forgiving enough. In fairness, if i was put to a wall with a gun on my head and i had to pick between him and daly, it would be a no brainer
They re-elected him in 2016, albeit his vote did decline significantly; the football club gives him a bit of a halo effect also.
Indeed, I mean he won two elections since that article. Hopefully he makes if nothing else it'll annoy the NATO bros!
I'm not sure the locals have that much time for him.
You would assume the veneer is gone from Wallace but the Irish do like to suck the whole off the local rich man so who knows.
Ah here while he's in with a shout, she's a shoo in.
Will he though? Can't imagine the locals would have as much love for him as days gone by when he created Wexford Youths.
Verona for a lot of her faults, speaks some sense(sometimes), well more sense than that fella anyway
Wallace will take one of wexfords 4 seats,probably Verona Murphy’s
That's the problem with politicians though, they aren't problem solvers, especially if it comes to an actual big problem like health. I'll add that politicians are always re-active.
I have one major issue with this though, fair enough if you aren't capable of fixing the problem(s) or have ideas on how to fix them, but for the love of god, have a team of capable people around you who can help with the subject matter instead of jobs for mates and someone handy on social media
Gannon will likely win but he's not a cert by any stretch. Hutch won't be at the races - media driven nonsense. Steenson, horrible person he is might get a run on the migration issue but I don't see if winning . Daly to pip Hourigan for the last (not certain though), pity for Hourigan if she loses, rather her than Donohoe.
I don't really get blaming a minister for the failings of their portfolio. They are just a figure head in most of those jobs. The likes of health, housing or justice are the failings of the entire government as the minister is not making any rogue decisions.
established now
By who exactly? Paddy Cosgrave?
Get off social media. Most people don't engage in it. The campaign is going fine so far. No major issues for any party at this stage. Its all a bit dull tbh, and it will be over in 2 weeks…
Yawn… Most people I think don't really care and are happy enough with the status quo without being over the moon. There is **** all credible opposition.
I dont like defending McEntee, but she is dead right. JoC was the man who turned down a junior minister's job after not getting one of the 'big' jobs. He was happy enough to be on the backbenches and be a stalking horse for the leadership of FF.
It hasnt really worked out for him, so now he is taking credit for the work McEntee is doing. I dont mind JoC but he really needs to check himself here.
Francie will have 2 differing opinions in the same post. A very confused man he is.
Were have I contested that? As you point out, popularity doesn't last.
We have just had a moderation in Politics on 'one liner answers/comments' and you give a one worder incomprehensible answer?
Harris is the most popular leader. Go back to 2020 when MLMD was popular (hard to remember I know) and SF got a boost accordingly. Same is applying now to Harris.
I think they have gone all in on 'Brand Harris' TBH and I am not sure it is going to pay off for them, they could be playing kingmaker for FF in the next government.
They are down two points in the Irish Times poll.
You should know by now that different polls use different methodologies (am I really having to explain this) so using the margin of error to compare different polls is silly. However, let's go there. If FG are on 29% in one poll with a MOE of 2% in that poll and on 25% with a MOE of 2% in a poll by a different company, then it is possible that taking the MOE into account, their support hasn't changed. Claiming that as a 4% fall is taking the extremes (why am I bothering, you will just ignore).
Trends are your friend and looking back six to twelve months tells you a full story.
On 26th September 2023, Sinn Fein was on 34% in the Irish Times poll, FF on 20% and FG on 18%.
What do today's results show? A massive swing away from Sinn Fein, and a massive swing towards FG, not necessarily the same voters doing both, but that is the story.
Think they've a chance with Sarah Beasley in Limerick, Emer Tóibín in Meath East and Sarah O’Reilly in Cavan-Monaghan, as well as outside chances in a few others. I agree it would take a huge day for them to take two extra seats, but I think the apparent fall-off in SF support could give them that possibility.
FF are a much stronger organisation on the ground than FG and have an established shy vote,lent through gritted teeth to FG in 2011,the first crack in the civil war politics
FG have little to no discipline behind the scenes whereas FF have a lot comparatively,they’re just better at it The Eoghan Murphy book is a great example of this
You wouldn’t see one from FF in the middle of an election
The abortion issue is being played down by their canvassers, eaten bread and all that.
Waste of public money is the one they are going with.
I am not expecting them to make significant inroads, but I expect them to pick up a seat or two and build towards the next elections.
I wouldn't underestimate them in the five-seaters. Stay in the race with 8 or 9% ahead of the spread of far-right candidates and pick up transfers to scrape the last seat.
Yes, I am taking the margin of error into account as always. FG could have been on 29% in the previous poll, but they have fallen from that (taking the margin into account) and can only potentially get to 27% (am I really having to explain this?) Regardless of whether there are new ideas on the big ticket items it is true to say that they are being hammered on failure on those items in every debate I have seen. The Taoiseach himself was on the back foot from the off in his 'big' interview. IMO if the 'slide' (as another poster called it) continues FG could well be eclipsed by FF, which would be strategically a huge blunder.
They do not have a good candidate in either of those 3. You are presuming that SF vote will weaken enough for Aontu to get a seat in any of those, that is not going to come true.
The Aontu brand is anti-abortion/pro-life and for as long as that label sticks to them they will be too divisive to make significant inroads.
Have you forgotten about the margin of error in polls?
I am fairly certain that you made several references to the margin of error when Sinn Fein started falling back in support, maybe I am wrong.
On the topic, I expect FG to finish as the biggest party, but I expect all three of the main parties to fall back from their current level of support, we are seeing this with both FG and SF in this poll. Voters will swing to the independents and to smaller parties. It could bring chaos.
As for the big ticket items, I haven't seen a single new idea from the opposition that is moving the dial in terms of solutions.
His sister in the other Meath constituency and Ellen Troy in Dublin West are possibilities for Aontu.
A rural five-seater like Donegal, Mayo or Kerry, if they have a good candidate (I am not up to speed) is also a possibility.
He is going full term.
I do see a scenario in which FG do a lot worse than expected, due to damage of so many incumbents retiring, and weariness after 14 years in government.
And I also see a scenario in which SF do better than expected. Maybe not so much on 1st prefs as they did in 2020, but they'll pick up transfers in the anti incumbent vote.
So that would leave FF and SF as two largest parties, with enough daylight between SF and FG to make it a tricky call on coalition partner for FF. I think there are many in FF who'd be more comfortable in a coalition with SF than FG who have just taken a kicking from the electorate.
And yes of course I'm aware this is totally at odds with current polling!
It's kind of established now in the campaign that the government parties are getting hammered on the big ticket items and are finding it difficult to move the conversation elsewhere. I'm wondering have FG made a fatal error in calling an election when their man is Taoiseach? Is that the reason for them falling 2% in the polls? Would they have been better going for what the 'man' originally claimed he wanted, the full term?
I keep seeing people suggest this, but I just can't figure out where the votes have went for this to happen. The only logical way that FF + SF go in together is if Fianna Fáil have a big number and need a second party, and FG have been wiped out. I don't see that happening in the first instance. If FG do lose a chunk of votes, do people really think those votes go to FF and SF? Some would go to FF, but more would go to the likes of Labour, Soc Dems & Greens.
I don't think either of these scenarios are likely, but I do think they are more likely than a situation where FF + SF makes any sort of sense.
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