I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Cluedo the more you name these FF politicians that i have put to the back of my brain the more i wonder if i'll bother giving them any kind of preferance in a few weeks time.
I might just revert to form and vote locally
How will more workers fix the viability issues with apartment building in this country?
There are only so many Clay Farms can be built in Dublin before we soon run out of space. Density is required, but under current FF housing minister apartments have become less and less viable to build, so much so that apartment commencements have cratered recently.
He’s one of the hardest working T.D’s to be fair despite battling mental health issues
https://www.thejournal.ie/td-gary-gannon-mental-health-adhd-6293983-Feb2024/
That should read Jim o Callaghan
Haven't read the whole thread, just the last dozen or so pages, and not seeing too many (or any) predictions of the outcome nationally so far.
Mine, for what it's worth (and it isn't worth much) is:
FG - 48 FF - 42 SF - 33 Ind/II - 26 SD - 7 PBP - 5 Lab - 6 GP - 4 Aontu - 3
Government will be FF+FG+whoever they choose to be the fall guy/mudflap.
While the obove result would give FG/FF a slim majority, they won't want that precarious situation, and while the obvious third party in this scenario would be Independents, or even Independent Ireland, I think they'll stick with the tried-and-trusted formula of bringing in a small, loudmouthed party that they know will constantly hog the limelight for unpopular decisions, and can be trusted to put their foot firmly in their mouth at every opportunity, to deflect attention from the sins of the father(s). The GP have been all wrung out at this point, and RoG is getting more toxic by the day, so I think they'll go with the inimitable Holly and the Social Democrats.
My prediction for the outcome of GE 2024 is a government of FG/FF/SD.
Another plonker has his name in the ring in the form of Mick Wallace
Hopefully he'll get the same result he got in the European election.
I agree. I have the same prediction. FFG+SD.
I'm predicting FF + SF + Indos
We have never built as many dense apartment buildings as we have in the last year or 2.
There are plenty in the pipeline and under commencement.
The new planning board will have to raise height levels though, I agree with you. It's a matter of time before that happens.
Note the decision by the high court to put Ronan's 45 floor tower back in the picture with planning; would be fantastic to see that approved.
Jim O'Callaghan takes a sipe at McEntee and McEntee responds with the sexism card.
Such a pain in the hole
It's not just Dublin. Across the country it's too easy to NIMBY down the height of buildings.
None of the "big 3" will stop this and in fact their politicians are often the ones siding with the NIMBYs.
The new planning bill will make it much harder for people to object to new developments. Judicial reviews will be much harder to enact.
Making it harder for nimbys to block devrlopments is exactly what we need, I agree with you. Thats what the bill will do.
That would be nice but I don't trust it when it comes from parties whose politicians are such keen drivers of this behaviour.
Just look at how a Fine Gael politician was front and centre of trying to get the Dublin quays traffic plan stopped. Nationally all about change but on the ground the biggest blockers of any little bit of progress.
Deep down FF and FG don't want any change in city centres and cling to some rose tinted view of how centres used to be.
Curious where you have Aontú getting 2 extra seats? They are such a one-man show that last night on prime time they had 2 Limerick candidates (Brian Leddin of the Greens, Conor Sheehan from Labour) and then had Peadar Tóibín and just mentioned that their local candidate is X.
I keep seeing people suggest this, but I just can't figure out where the votes have went for this to happen. The only logical way that FF + SF go in together is if Fianna Fáil have a big number and need a second party, and FG have been wiped out. I don't see that happening in the first instance. If FG do lose a chunk of votes, do people really think those votes go to FF and SF? Some would go to FF, but more would go to the likes of Labour, Soc Dems & Greens.
I don't think either of these scenarios are likely, but I do think they are more likely than a situation where FF + SF makes any sort of sense.
It's kind of established now in the campaign that the government parties are getting hammered on the big ticket items and are finding it difficult to move the conversation elsewhere. I'm wondering have FG made a fatal error in calling an election when their man is Taoiseach? Is that the reason for them falling 2% in the polls? Would they have been better going for what the 'man' originally claimed he wanted, the full term?
I do see a scenario in which FG do a lot worse than expected, due to damage of so many incumbents retiring, and weariness after 14 years in government.
And I also see a scenario in which SF do better than expected. Maybe not so much on 1st prefs as they did in 2020, but they'll pick up transfers in the anti incumbent vote.
So that would leave FF and SF as two largest parties, with enough daylight between SF and FG to make it a tricky call on coalition partner for FF. I think there are many in FF who'd be more comfortable in a coalition with SF than FG who have just taken a kicking from the electorate.
And yes of course I'm aware this is totally at odds with current polling!
He is going full term.
His sister in the other Meath constituency and Ellen Troy in Dublin West are possibilities for Aontu.
A rural five-seater like Donegal, Mayo or Kerry, if they have a good candidate (I am not up to speed) is also a possibility.
Have you forgotten about the margin of error in polls?
I am fairly certain that you made several references to the margin of error when Sinn Fein started falling back in support, maybe I am wrong.
On the topic, I expect FG to finish as the biggest party, but I expect all three of the main parties to fall back from their current level of support, we are seeing this with both FG and SF in this poll. Voters will swing to the independents and to smaller parties. It could bring chaos.
As for the big ticket items, I haven't seen a single new idea from the opposition that is moving the dial in terms of solutions.
They do not have a good candidate in either of those 3. You are presuming that SF vote will weaken enough for Aontu to get a seat in any of those, that is not going to come true.
The Aontu brand is anti-abortion/pro-life and for as long as that label sticks to them they will be too divisive to make significant inroads.
Yes, I am taking the margin of error into account as always. FG could have been on 29% in the previous poll, but they have fallen from that (taking the margin into account) and can only potentially get to 27% (am I really having to explain this?) Regardless of whether there are new ideas on the big ticket items it is true to say that they are being hammered on failure on those items in every debate I have seen. The Taoiseach himself was on the back foot from the off in his 'big' interview. IMO if the 'slide' (as another poster called it) continues FG could well be eclipsed by FF, which would be strategically a huge blunder.
The abortion issue is being played down by their canvassers, eaten bread and all that.
Waste of public money is the one they are going with.
I am not expecting them to make significant inroads, but I expect them to pick up a seat or two and build towards the next elections.
I wouldn't underestimate them in the five-seaters. Stay in the race with 8 or 9% ahead of the spread of far-right candidates and pick up transfers to scrape the last seat.
FF are a much stronger organisation on the ground than FG and have an established shy vote,lent through gritted teeth to FG in 2011,the first crack in the civil war politics
FG have little to no discipline behind the scenes whereas FF have a lot comparatively,they’re just better at it The Eoghan Murphy book is a great example of this
You wouldn’t see one from FF in the middle of an election
Think they've a chance with Sarah Beasley in Limerick, Emer Tóibín in Meath East and Sarah O’Reilly in Cavan-Monaghan, as well as outside chances in a few others. I agree it would take a huge day for them to take two extra seats, but I think the apparent fall-off in SF support could give them that possibility.
They are down two points in the Irish Times poll.
You should know by now that different polls use different methodologies (am I really having to explain this) so using the margin of error to compare different polls is silly. However, let's go there. If FG are on 29% in one poll with a MOE of 2% in that poll and on 25% with a MOE of 2% in a poll by a different company, then it is possible that taking the MOE into account, their support hasn't changed. Claiming that as a 4% fall is taking the extremes (why am I bothering, you will just ignore).
Trends are your friend and looking back six to twelve months tells you a full story.
On 26th September 2023, Sinn Fein was on 34% in the Irish Times poll, FF on 20% and FG on 18%.
What do today's results show? A massive swing away from Sinn Fein, and a massive swing towards FG, not necessarily the same voters doing both, but that is the story.
I think they have gone all in on 'Brand Harris' TBH and I am not sure it is going to pay off for them, they could be playing kingmaker for FF in the next government.
Harris is the most popular leader. Go back to 2020 when MLMD was popular (hard to remember I know) and SF got a boost accordingly. Same is applying now to Harris.
We have just had a moderation in Politics on 'one liner answers/comments' and you give a one worder incomprehensible answer?
Were have I contested that? As you point out, popularity doesn't last.
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