I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
FG running 4 in Mayo is a bit weird, although a 5 seater, not a hope in hell they'll get 4, or even 3 seats. That could potentially be detrimental.
Lisa Chambers looks a nice bet to be elected back again after a term out
you’re still on record having lauded polls as a SF government is inevitable
Based on the poll at the given time and a whole year of them showing SF in the mid 30's Have I also said 'based on the current poll SF won't be in government'?
Yes I have. It's there above, on record and in black and white. I can also find you posts where I said SF have given up on being in government this time based on the current opinion polling.
But you carry on with the misrepresentation. Ridiculous TBH
They got four before in Mayo, but 3 is definitely a possibility. One of them is seen as a sweeper candidate.
You are correct, he is on record as saying that a SF government is inevitable following an opinion poll that saw them on 37%. He is also on record saying that they would welcome a poll which showed them down from 19% to 18% in a month. Finally, he is on record saying that only elections count, but not local and European elections, and that opinion polls don't matter.
Search long enough and you will find every possible opinion on polls.
If it hasn't "returned to normal" while FF and FG are in government, when will it?
Correct me if I'm wrong but there aren't any parties further right of FF/FG other than the cranks who will never get within an asses roar of government.
If the polls are correct and Fine Gael the biggest party will Sinn Fein and their vociferous online supporters stick to the line about the largest party having a "mandate" and insinuating that PR is cheating ?
Or will they try and truth speak their way out of that too.
4 when Michael Ring was there - without him there is a big hole in Mayo for FG.
It is still their heartland, so 2 seats are nailed on. But FGs loss will be FFs gain
Undoubtedly true.
Leaves Calleary, Chambers and Conway-Walsh for the final seats, but again, i don't know historically SF do up there, although not great i'm assuming.
You are correct, he is on record as saying that a SF government is inevitable following an opinion poll that saw them on 37%. if they got 37% in an actual election.
He is also on record saying that they would welcome a poll which showed them down from 19% to 18% in a month because they had been involved in 4 scandals.
Finally, he is on record saying that only elections count, but not local and European elections, because they are different types of elections, you only have to go back to 2020 to see this.
*Apologies to other posters for doing this, but it really is wearisome and hard to not react.
SF don't do well there at all. Very poor local level in Mayo, almost exclusively FG/FF.
Barring a major shock Mayo will be 2FG 2FF
RCW is very popular on a personal level.
It would be a big shock if she lost out.
Who gets the fifth seat?
It's a 5 seater, so room still there for RCW
Forgot about the extra seat this time, Walsh may take it with whatever 'left' vote exists in Mayo, unless they go positively transfer toxic
My take on Mayo is slightly different.
Two seats for Fine Gael, one seat for Fianna Fail. The last two seats between Sinn Fein, independents ( or Aontu, Independent Ireland if they are running someone) and the second FF and third FG.
Mick Wallace announces he’s running. They must be getting worried that Cobalt isn’t going to be re-elected
Sinn Fein will win the silent majority, I predict an upset
There is no such thing as a silent majority. Never has been, never will be.
We were told there was a silent majority against Repeal, turned out they were actually an incredibly loud minority. This is what always happens.
People who think they're in a silent majority are not in a majority and never stay silent about it!
Everyone knows the silent majority are far right voters.
Sinn Fein could capture the silent minority (there is no silent majority) and perform up to their level at the last general election, but I doubt it. That silent minority is going to independents and smaller parties (Aontu, Independent Ireland) most likely and resulting in a messy Dail with government difficult. Slight chance it could go back to the government parties leaving them overperforming the opinion polls.
What exactly do you mean by this?, and where is your source you claimed against Gary Gannons attendance being one of the lowest in the Dail?
RCW is a lock according to the bookies.
Gannon had the lowest attendance in 2021. Doesn't appear to anymore. I can't remember if an excuse was given at the time.
TD forced to pay back €1,000 expenses due to poor attendance | Irish Independent
Thanks, i checked 2024, and he's one of the higher attending TD's, although if you have been pulled up on something in the past, then you're bound to be seen more often
It's nonsense. Most voters are not property owners with huge debts or at risk of negative equity. Huge numbers of voters don't own a home at all. Many more have paid their mortgages off or have only a small loan left. Anyone with an LTV less than 50% won't be in negative equity even if house prices were somehow to halve. House prices halving is an extreme scenario.
Who is Jim McDonald?
A Northern Irish character in Coronation Street and subject of a number of memes.
As for who they actually meant, I have no idea!
Working in the office projects, which are largely closing out now.
They will migrate to residential as the pipeline for new office devs is very small now.
It was Jim O'Callaghan TD. Miriam's brother. FF Justice spokesman. Should have been minister for Justice (according to himself) and is now claiming credit for stuff McEntee did.
