I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
👍️ Everyone knows this but nobody says it.
Looking at Wexford and doing some analysis of 2020 result and recent local elections, Both Lawlor (Labour) & Byrne (FG) are both priced competitively (4/7). Lawlor especially topped the vote in LE for Wexford Town and will take his share of Howlins vote.
You'd assume James Browne would be safe, potentially leaving Verona at risk assuming Johnny Mythen hasn't been a total disaster for the area
Eoghan Murphy is hinting at it!
FG down 2% in two polls, Brand Harris is beginning to falter in sight of the finishing line.
Recently you were at pains to tell us that polls don't mean anything!?!?
Where Seth? Find a post by me where I said, 'polls don't mean anything'.
Are you confusing it with me saying 'opinions are not actual votes'? Which they aren't - they are always potential votes. You cannot say FF, FG, SF, Labour's etc vote is up or down until there is an actual vote.
You can say that if this opinion poll carried through into an actual election then FG would be on 24%, SF on 19% FF on 20% etc etc. If you are gonna quote me, please do it correctly.
I didn't quote you verbatim nor did I use quote marks. However, when SF were down in the polls you were at pains to tell us that the polls were meaningless.
And I'm not searching through your many many posts to find your specific words.
I have screenshots,as you know,have posted a few in the SF thread much to that posters embarrassment (actually Ire more than embarrassment)
The level of pretence and subterfuge in some of the pirouettes is such that it’s like a mouse eaten by a cat where the mouse has left a note denying they were eaten
The talk I've heard is that Gary Gannon could be in a bit of trouble as his electorate is more likely to defect to Daly/Hutch than Hourigan's.
I think it could be any combination of Gannon, Hourigan and Daly for the last two seats, with an outside chance for Steenson or Marie Sherlock.
I think it's very unlikely but certainly not impossible that Hutch gets in either.
Francie neglected to mention that SF are also down in the most recent poll. I wonder do they consider that significant now that other parties numbers are magically important!
It is literally impossible to know what vote share Hutch will get. This talk of him being a working class hero of sorts doesn't wash with me. His family are known scumbags in the area, so does he get the, let vote Gerry for a laugh or does he absolutely tank. No idea
I hope Gary Gannon gets re-elected anyway, and for my dislike of the Greens, i actually think Neasa is a decent skin. Although i don't think there is room for both Neasa and Gary
If you're in the mood for a none of the above protest vote, it's a hell of a protest vote. He might get quite a few.
I think voters have caught on that Gannon is a chancer and an opportunist. Lowest attendance levels in the Dáil..
SF and FG down in poll, but both within margin of error, so not really much going on there.
Well, along with MaryLou, he'll be the most recognised. Like he'll definitely be getting some East Wall/Sheriff St/ sean mcdiarmuid st etc etc votes which will thankfully dilute Steensons.
Listen, i don't know. But, looking forward to seeing how that plays out
He's also making extremely weird decisions on public transport policies and making baffling statements about it.
TD welcomes deferral of changes to No 11 Dublin Bus route, despite impact on proposed 24-hour service
Soc Dems have gone down a rabbit hole of populist, pro-car stuff for their public transport statements recently despite their manifesto claiming the opposite.
Are we the only country in the world (aside from South America) where an international drug dealer can run and be elected??
I don't think Gannon is any danger whatsoever. It would be a shame to lose him to be honest. I hope central Dubliners aren't that shallow.
Does he really? I ran through that report quickly and saw at least 8 with lower attednaces, he seems to be around the average number. What's your source?
http://chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/members/recordAttendanceForTaa/2024/2024-11-01_deputies-verification-of-attendance-for-the-payment-of-taa-01-january-2024-to-30-september-2024_en.pdf
Social Democrats switching to Daly or Hutch.
What is this based on exactly ?
Well then, if that is the standard, we can all say what we like about what other posters have said. I have never said 'polls are meaningless'. Here is a post from earlier in the year when SF's opinion polling was 'down' accepting what it meant for SF and in response to somebody else making the same claim as you.
You are on record that a Sinn Fein government is inevitable following a previous opinion poll,
…based on the numbers in that poll. Based on on the current poll they won't be in government. It is not rocket science. That is how you are supposed to use 'polls', to assess potential votes.
Post #5975 on this thread
He'll be grand. One of the safer SD seats. With the exception of Paschal and Gary, there is a weird oul bunch running in that cons
Yeah he should milk the expenses more like some other wasters. Or perhaps get others to fob him in so he can claim fraudulent expenses like Dara Murphy (FG)
In Italy a lot of Football Ultras get elected as local councilors etc. and a lot of them are heavily involved with drugs. Probably wouldn't class them as international drug dealers though yeah.
When did one get elected here ?
While not a drug dealer, I'd advise you to look across as the USA as to who they just elected…
Many owners of property don't want to rent out at the moment because of the anti-landlord regulations. They are waiting for the market to return to normal.
More Daly than Hutch I suppose. The thinking is that some of the old Maureen Sullivan/Tony Gregory vote went to Gannon last time out and could revert to Daly this time around. That's just what I've heard from a couple of people, I don't necessarily have any expertise on it myself.
you’re still on record having lauded polls as a SF government is inevitable
This thread is only a couple of weeks old
The forum is decades old
As I said pirouettes,in this case a proudly waved one on polls
Also habitual is when things like this are pointed out ,we have usually a few 10’s of pages later posts made as if the pointing out never happened and carrying on with the same crack again
Most people at this stage ignore that kind of posting,it does its own credibility damage to itself without the need to be pointed out for what it is,basically because it’s posted day in and day out
SF seat in trouble.
FG will take one - Naughton, FF will probably take one, unless transfers completely breakdown, Noel Grealish and Catherine Connolly will get back in, and SF will fight for the last seat with Kyne and Independent Ireland. Will be interesting.
