I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
What are the latest seat projections for the main 3 parties?
Meath East gained a seat in the constituency redraw; it would be the biggest shock in the history of Irish politics if McEntee were to lose her seat. in fact FG look well placed to take 2…
Exactly. SF will raise taxes on anyone earning an average salary or above, and probably wreck the economy at the same time.
But if there was no FTB grant, your £65k house would have been a £62k house.
It isn't difficult to see at all.
FFG have the best housing output poilcy on offer. You aren't going to see more homes built under a SF govt then you will under FFG.
IIRC back in 1990's as OP mentioned it would have been called the Low Income homebuyers scheme which then made way for the affordable purchase scheme in the early noughties.
Both different to FTB
100%.
The FFG scheme is a good thing because it allows young first time buyers to get on the ladder when they could not otherwise do so, simply because they can't afford to save for a deposit.
If the scheme slightly pushes prices upwards well thats ok.
Better a 370k home a couple in their 20s or 30s can afford than a 350k home that they cant afford because they dont have a deposit.
More building is the solution and all of the housing output markers are pointing upwards, under the current govt.
The standard FTB grant was around in the mid-90s, and wasn't income related.
As far back as 1977 no less.
And when abolished, the price of new houses dropped by pretty much exactly the grant value overnight. It had long since become extra profit margin to the developers.
So even back as far as 1993 the experts knew what impact these "subsidies" would have and we haven't learned from previous mistakes.
Noting that the National Economic and Social Council had called for its abolition in 1993, he said the grants had helped to push up house prices. Abolishing them now should encourage home builders to "look at their margins".
Very hard to get reliable predictions.
https://irishelectionprojections.com/national/
This is one of the better ones, but even he admits to weaknesses in the model used.
How many of those towns and villages actually have properties for rent or for sale?
Every town, village and city has vacant properties. The problem is that the owners are happy to let them rot while they accumulate in value. The penalties put in place for this sort of vandalism are toothless. I think it's one of the government's biggest failures since it's such an obvious open goal to punish these hoarders.
Do you have accurate data to back this up?
That was in 2011 in Mayo not 2007
Who this Blanch? Not even google is helping me find the candidate
Workers & Unemployed
1
Fair enough, my memory playing tricks. Was still an amazing feat of vote management, particularly as they had the leader of a party who would normally act as a vote magnet.
Seamus Healy, south Tipp. In with a chance but it's a three seater and tight
Seamus Healy in South Tipperary.
https://irishelectionprojections.com/tipperary-south/
It is actually a good example of the difficulties of seat projection, with him just about shading the last seat.
How can a couple who could be earning combined anywhere from 80 to 150 grand not afford to save 35 to 45k for a deposit?
She is not going well. Slim chance now.
Highly unlikely. Most of the houses were occupied by people trading up or trading down from larger homes in the area.
All boils down to the candidate, Irish people have a tendency to vote for the person more so than the party. I rarely get a knock on the door, get hundreds of flyers, but very rarely a knock.
The value of the house only matters on the day it's bought or sold, every other day it doesn't matter.
Im one of those 40 somethings who is out of Negative equity now.it still sucks , people can't move , leave the nest, move into Ireland for job prospects
It screws everyone including the tax payer.
You should check your facts.
New house prices rose in 2002 by over 6% and then went on a rampaging bull run when banks started to throw money about.
They did drop back a little in 2001 and that was down to uncertainty caused by 9/11
£60k was a very average house price in Ireland in 1990. Lots of new estates were targeted at FTBs at that time.
There's that little annoyance called rent?
Are any bookies doing odds on winning TDs in constituencies? Paddy Power had them last time out.
My facts are entirely solid, thanks. Yours are off to a bad start by thinking that a change that took affect in the last 6 weeks of a year would be reflected in an annualised figure, and when it only affected a portion of total sales - entry level priced new builds.
That said, the November 2002 figures from PermanentTSB noticed a slight drop in new house prices even with it only having come in for half of the month, when they had been rising previously. I can't find the December 2002 figures, but January 2003 was also a drop. Second hand house prices did not drop at all during this period.
Some builders hid the cuts by claiming that they were giving the buyer a "grant", but it was actually just a direct price cut, e.g.
That wouldn't hide the price cut from the statistics, though.
The FTB grant was, and the HTB grant is, a guarantee of extra margin to builders. If removed, prices for new houses would drop - we saw it before.
With so many TDs leaving FG that could spell trouble for them if the tendency you describe is kept.
My guess would be that FG and SF will rely quite heavily on their leaders performance to drum up votes around the country while FF will hope for Healy-Rae style local politics to carry them
Next Tuesday 26 November Simon Harris, Micheál Martin and Mary Lou McDonald will go head-to-head and the winning leaders party will probably go on to gain the most votes
VM have announced individual interviews with Colette Fitzpatrick instead of a debate
