I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
And the mix of people buying will change if HTB is removed. First-time buyers will be squeezed out by those with cash, those buying second homes and institutional investors.
They went back up as the market was overheating.
If HTB is removed, prices might also go up after an initial drop, due to other factors in the market.. It doesn't change the fact that HTB has increased prices.
Two things can happen at once, you know.
Second house buyers and speculators are already looking at needing vastly higher % deposits etc; HTB isn't pushing them out of the market. That needs to be done via taxation instead, if its actually something you want politically.
All boils down to the candidate, Irish people have a tendency to vote for the person more so than the party.
Some truth in that but needs to be heavily caveated
FG are pretty much guaranteed a seat in every four- and five-seat constituency outside of working-class Dublin
Plus FF & FG government ministers only lose their seats in the most extreme and exceptional circumstances
which adds up to H-Mac being safe as houses…
They only dropped temporarily, the beneficiaries were those with cash who could buy, and once first-time buyers saved the difference, the price went up.
Schemes like HTB and the first-time grant give the advantage to first-time buyers. They squeeze speculators and second-house buyers out of the market.
There was no cut-off, so that doesn't work
It was announced that it was gone immediately. If you were already underway you could get it, absolutely nobody new could.
There's no alternative view that works with the facts. Artificial support was removed, prices dropped for the single category of house with the artificial support.
An alternative view is that demand dropped temporarily as first-time buyers, firstly, moved to buy before the cut-off, artificially increasing prices, and then delayed buying until they had saved some extra money. That this was temporary is shown by the rapid increase in prices the following year. Those who benefitted from the abolition of the grant and the temporary lower prices were non-first-time buyers with cash who moved in.
I think it could really benefit them as party all round to stop just being different for the sake of it on absolutely everything. It’s tiresome to constantly be a detractor.
If they came out and said ‘This economy is a phenomenal success. We think the proceeds could be better used to improve housing/health/infrastructure and the current gov are wasting the opportunity . Here’s how we’d do it. We’ll leave everything else alone’
I think they could have much wider appeal.
They’re tendency for idiotic policies and nonsensical positions on EU membership, corporation tax, property tax, more progressive income tax, reducing retirement age…whatever other way the winds blows means they are just too much of a risk to take.
I’d be somewhat intrigued to see if SF could genuinely make a better fist of health and housing in particular. I doubt it, but I’d be willing to give them a go…but the risk they absolutely destroy probably the greatest economic success story in modern history is too high to give them a shot.
Absolutely not. FF and FG are still relying on the private sector to drive this development. What is needed is the state directing the building of homes
Two months in the space of three months, not one.
Where's your December 2002 stat from? The same PTSB series? If its from another, its not going to be the same baselines. You should link to something like that, like I did with mine.
The figures you've given there are not for new houses, just FTB vs non FTB - FTBs buy second hand houses too - by the way. But they're also irrelevant.
All your other full year figures don't matter - prices dropped, immediately, when the grant was removed; either directly or with fake "developer grants" - those not hiding the drop in actual prices. 2001 figures are also irrelevant as the grant remained constant throughout 2001.
That the market was overheating and brought them back up is irrelevant. It would have been even hotter had the pointless margin guarantee remained.
I know from elsewhere that you really, really dislike being proved wrong and I suspect this might be another case of a bad reaction to that.
If MM puts in a strong performance gives them a bit of an edge with recency bias a potential factor (If such interviews do indeed sway a voter)
I had a labour candidate actually come back to my house after one of his group said I'd be interested in talking to him, was actually refreshing not to just have a flier in the door.
Sinn Fein promising 370,000 homes over six years. Easy to promise but where and who is going to build these homes. Its classic election one up manship…
ah come on. You are showing ONE MONTH's figures and wildly claiming it was the ftb grant that did it.
The economy took a drop for a while in 2002 and house prices stuttered.
They had DROPPED in 2001 when the ftb grant was there.
December 2002 saw a 0.7% increase in new house prices.
2003 - the year after the ftb grant was abolished saw new ftb house prices soar by 14.7% - here are the published figures -
First time buyers V. Second time buyers:
House prices for first-time buyers and second-time buyers increased by 14.7% and 13.4% respectively in 2003. The annual growth rate for first-time buyers and second-time buyers in 2002 was 11.8% and 13.3% respectively.
Yes Cluedo, Boyle Sports are offering odds on some cons. Not all, but about a dozen or so.
https://www.boylesports.com/sports/politics
I#'m specifically waiting on 1 or 2 cons as i have my suspicions on a couple of outsiders (well they should be)
I can't remember when Joan Collins was first elected but i remember a good friend of mine telling me to back her as an absolute cert (he was from Drimnagh) and won close on 600quid placing a few smallish bets with PP & Boyle
The aforementioned G Seoige is 1/10 I'm afraid 😐️ (90% chance of winning).
With so many TDs leaving FG that could spell trouble for them if the tendency you describe is kept.
My guess would be that FG and SF will rely quite heavily on their leaders performance to drum up votes around the country while FF will hope for Healy-Rae style local politics to carry them
Next Tuesday 26 November Simon Harris, Micheál Martin and Mary Lou McDonald will go head-to-head and the winning leaders party will probably go on to gain the most votes
VM have announced individual interviews with Colette Fitzpatrick instead of a debate
My facts are entirely solid, thanks. Yours are off to a bad start by thinking that a change that took affect in the last 6 weeks of a year would be reflected in an annualised figure, and when it only affected a portion of total sales - entry level priced new builds.
That said, the November 2002 figures from PermanentTSB noticed a slight drop in new house prices even with it only having come in for half of the month, when they had been rising previously. I can't find the December 2002 figures, but January 2003 was also a drop. Second hand house prices did not drop at all during this period.
Some builders hid the cuts by claiming that they were giving the buyer a "grant", but it was actually just a direct price cut, e.g.
That wouldn't hide the price cut from the statistics, though.
The FTB grant was, and the HTB grant is, a guarantee of extra margin to builders. If removed, prices for new houses would drop - we saw it before.
Are any bookies doing odds on winning TDs in constituencies? Paddy Power had them last time out.
There's that little annoyance called rent?
£60k was a very average house price in Ireland in 1990. Lots of new estates were targeted at FTBs at that time.
You should check your facts.
New house prices rose in 2002 by over 6% and then went on a rampaging bull run when banks started to throw money about.
They did drop back a little in 2001 and that was down to uncertainty caused by 9/11
The value of the house only matters on the day it's bought or sold, every other day it doesn't matter.
Im one of those 40 somethings who is out of Negative equity now.it still sucks , people can't move , leave the nest, move into Ireland for job prospects
It screws everyone including the tax payer.
All boils down to the candidate, Irish people have a tendency to vote for the person more so than the party. I rarely get a knock on the door, get hundreds of flyers, but very rarely a knock.
Highly unlikely. Most of the houses were occupied by people trading up or trading down from larger homes in the area.
She is not going well. Slim chance now.
How can a couple who could be earning combined anywhere from 80 to 150 grand not afford to save 35 to 45k for a deposit?
Seamus Healy in South Tipperary.
https://irishelectionprojections.com/tipperary-south/
It is actually a good example of the difficulties of seat projection, with him just about shading the last seat.
Seamus Healy, south Tipp. In with a chance but it's a three seater and tight
Fair enough, my memory playing tricks. Was still an amazing feat of vote management, particularly as they had the leader of a party who would normally act as a vote magnet.
Who this Blanch? Not even google is helping me find the candidate
Workers & Unemployed
1
That was in 2011 in Mayo not 2007
