I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Do you have accurate data to back this up?
How many of those towns and villages actually have properties for rent or for sale?
Every town, village and city has vacant properties. The problem is that the owners are happy to let them rot while they accumulate in value. The penalties put in place for this sort of vandalism are toothless. I think it's one of the government's biggest failures since it's such an obvious open goal to punish these hoarders.
Very hard to get reliable predictions.
https://irishelectionprojections.com/national/
This is one of the better ones, but even he admits to weaknesses in the model used.
So even back as far as 1993 the experts knew what impact these "subsidies" would have and we haven't learned from previous mistakes.
Noting that the National Economic and Social Council had called for its abolition in 1993, he said the grants had helped to push up house prices. Abolishing them now should encourage home builders to "look at their margins".
And when abolished, the price of new houses dropped by pretty much exactly the grant value overnight. It had long since become extra profit margin to the developers.
As far back as 1977 no less.
The standard FTB grant was around in the mid-90s, and wasn't income related.
100%.
The FFG scheme is a good thing because it allows young first time buyers to get on the ladder when they could not otherwise do so, simply because they can't afford to save for a deposit.
If the scheme slightly pushes prices upwards well thats ok.
Better a 370k home a couple in their 20s or 30s can afford than a 350k home that they cant afford because they dont have a deposit.
More building is the solution and all of the housing output markers are pointing upwards, under the current govt.
IIRC back in 1990's as OP mentioned it would have been called the Low Income homebuyers scheme which then made way for the affordable purchase scheme in the early noughties.
Both different to FTB
It isn't difficult to see at all.
FFG have the best housing output poilcy on offer. You aren't going to see more homes built under a SF govt then you will under FFG.
But if there was no FTB grant, your £65k house would have been a £62k house.
Exactly. SF will raise taxes on anyone earning an average salary or above, and probably wreck the economy at the same time.
Meath East gained a seat in the constituency redraw; it would be the biggest shock in the history of Irish politics if McEntee were to lose her seat. in fact FG look well placed to take 2…
What are the latest seat projections for the main 3 parties?
There's been a FTB scheme for decades - good times and bad times. The current one has a ceiling on prices which, if anything, are keeping prices of some homes from going too high.
Its has no effect on homes over €500k (and 350k in some counties) as they are not eligible.
I remember getting the FTB grant back in 1990 and it really assisted in getting a home as it could be included as part of the deposit. Hence a £68k house was £65k and mortgage was £60k. Max mortgage was 3 times gross salary and I squeezed in by begging for a pay rise from £19k to £20k 😀
Building more homes is the ONLY way to bring prices back down.
Well there has been a massive increase in rural buses specifically targeting villages off the main routes and the Greens have just pledged a lot more.
Some of the services will even reroute to the "McMansions" if you call them.
The problem is giving planning permission for McMansions up every boreen, who's residents then complain that they don't have buses.
Going on my own cons, i fancy Riada Cronin is doomed also(SF did atrociously bad in all area's of KN in LE), Joe Neville (FG) was very popular in the LE, and Naoise (FF) could also win a seat, maybe Aidan Farrelly can scrape through for SD given how hard they are canvassing with along with Catherine Murphy
Just because videos only show stuff in daytime doesn't mean night time canvassing isn't happening; its just incredibly hard to do social media posts about it in the dark - not much to photograph/video.
I have zero knowledge of whether they are actually are though.
Don't know who Helen is losing her seat but she will struggle to keep it, People are still mocking her over the whole "Talbot Street is safe" while walking around in the middle of the day flanked by guards.
SF in Dublin Mid West where adding an additional candidate for this election, as far as I've heard that has now been shelved.
Mark Ward will lose his seat to Glenn Moore (If he runs) He seems to be growing in popularity with the Ireland for the Irish crowd that would normally be a SF United Ireland group in the North Clondalkin area. And losing numbers from the actual working class in the area, by choosing to campaign during working hours…. just look at their social media platforms, all the door to door knocking is done during the day. Either they cant be arsed with those out working or they are too afraid to face them.
Should be interesting to watch the outcome for Dublin Mid West as they have an extra seat up for grabs, a few new faces in the mix and the most popular candidate in the last local election (Ind) has now moved to Labour.
I think Gino Kenny (PBP) should be fine, it's the same people who vote for him every time and they're not being swayed by anyone else in that area.
If the settlement pattern was in villages and towns (as in most of Europe) rather than dispersed around the countryside, you get the benefit of numbers that brings services.
The only time a huge surplus worked for a major party was the election of Cyprian Brady in 2007.
Bertie Ahern got a monstrous surplus and Brady was way back on 939 votes (2.7%), and benefitted from huge transfers from Ahern. It stands as the lowest number of first preferences and lowest percentage of first preferences to ever be elected. Generally it is very unusual to see that work out.
More common is the managing of the vote to balance out candidates. The most spectacular of these was the election of 4 FG TDs in Mayo in 2007. FG had 65% of the first preference vote but managed to win 80% of the seats thanks to expert vote management.
You've obviously never lived outside Dublin. My local village has 1 overpriced shop and 3 pubs. Where do you suggest I do a family shop?
I'd gladly take the bus into town if there was a bus service so I guess I'm stuck with driving.
Waiting on your ideas with eagerness.
Who is Helen McEntee losing her seat to?
Roderic O'Gorman was last man elected in 2020, so he's definitely at risk. But Leo Varadkar got 19.4% of the vote then, I can't see all of that transferring to Emer Currie (the sole FG candidate this time), so there is votes out there that he might be able to pick up. Ruth Coppinger will take votes from his left and a second Fianna Fáil candidate will take votes from the pro-government side, so he's definitely in trouble. Being party leader and being very visible will help though.
Sinn Féin got 2 seats in Dublin Mid-West in 2020 and it's now a 5 seater. Even with the drop in Sinn Féin support in the polls, it'd be a big surprise if he lost his seat.
Brian Stanley - I agree here.
That'll be a sad reflection on the people of Galway 😔
This is already happening in the towns and villages. Especially in places like Cappamore and Buttevant which are considered "commutable distance" to a city.
But it will only work in the commutable villages because the whole history of human existence has been transitory. Sorry to say but some of rural Ireland is just gonna die as people move away from farming. It's inevitable and normal.
Great idea.
She's all but gaurenteed to be elected!
Number of counts is irrelevant, always has been irrelevant and nobody cared until SF supporters tried to make it a thing after they threw seats away last time.
Most TDs in larger parties get elected on later counts. Going over on the first is for Independents and smaller parties with popular TDs, or parties that screw up vote management.
Absolute joke if Seoige gets elected.
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