I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Why? Do we not want to see "normal" people in leadership of our parties? And "normal" people get pregnant and have children. The timing of this election is unfortunate with her due date, but to be fair to her - the current Dáil term was due to run until March next year.
Aontú are a party who will never go into government, they are always going to be a small portion of electorate and, even if they have more seats, will prefer to be shouting at the government rather than trying to govern. Similar vibes (but different policies, obviously) as PBP/Solidarity.
I cannot see any scenario where FF and SF go into government together after this election. If FG are there with a suitable number of seats, that's what they'll do. If FG are hammered into a very small party (v. unlikely) then that means the likes of Labour, Soc Dems or Greens have grown, and I think FF would prefer them to SF.
What combination of seats would make a SF/FF coalition likely?
https://irishelectionprojections.com/national/
This projection gives FF/SF/Aontu 78 seats, with a majority required at 87.
If FG underperforms its 48, as everyone on here is predicting, that would put a FF/SF/Aontu coalition very close to a majority. Wouldn't take much of a swing.
Perhaps it would have been wiser to step aside for 6 months so. Whatever the niceties, she's unable to give the 100%, so it's a mess for the party.
SF were a coalition option for FF last time out but they decided that FG and the Greens were preferable. You can’t get away from the fact that SF are not a conventional party and FF know this. Arguably too SF are eating FF’s lunch in terms of reunification. I just can’t see it happening in the medium term where they would pair up.
Based on current polls, it is actually more likely this time. FF would not have been able to stomach going in with SF as the smaller party. With FF gaining seats and SF losing seats, if the gap is more than 10 seats, FF could refuse a rotating Taoiseach. That could be enough to swing the party getting rid of the FG "monkey on their back" and moving forward with a grand republican coalition.
Not sure Blanch, SF and their recent toxicity makes it difficult for FF to even consider such a scenario i would imagine.
I just don't see where they pick up 4 new TDs to get +1 seat. To get the transfers, you need to be ahead of the SD and Green candidate. I can see the SDs doing very well this election but I don't see Labour getting 6 new TDs to bring them to double figures. I can see Labour candidates dropping and transferring to SDs. I don't think they will increase their seat count.
Ex Shinners against abortion will always be a single-issue fringe party.
I had a look through their candidates and can't see where they are getting anything close to 10. I'd have thought 3 maybe? Howlin, Bacik (Unfortunately) & Duncan, am i missing anyone obvious? Maybe that beard from Louth.(Although he's probably the last of the "old" traditional Labour)
EDIT - Jenny Whitmore more than likely
I cant see anything changing a whole lot. It will be FF/FG propped up by 1 or 2 out of The Green Party, Social Democrats, Labour or a grouping of independents
You're predicting Brendan Howlin and Jennifer Whitmore will get elected for Labour?
Checked and obviously not!
They'll win 3 or fewer seats
Aren’t Soc Dem voters terrible at transferring?
The issue with them historically has been that they come from a stand of the soft left (the Murphy and Shortall school of politics) that lives on virtue. Compromise is something they have historically marketed as betrayal, thus Labour were seen as bad as FG.
Some signs at the recent elections (Bacik and Europeans) that this may have changed but we shall see.
FF is away less likely to go with SF this time unless the numbers add up as the only option. Last time you had Jim O'Callaghan championing it and he refused an offer of a ministerial ( not aure if a full cabinet positiom or junior) post because he taught the government would not survive. Now he is yesterdays man even if there is more positions after the election he might not get an offer even if he dose it will probably be a junior post. This time the devil you know is better than the devil you do not. FF&FG policies are much nearer than FF&SF.
TBH Martin f@@ked up holding off on giving Harris the go ahead 3-4 weeks ago. The election should have bern next Friday, Friday week at the latest. Willie O'Dea wrote a good article on it yesterday in the Indo. Martin was watching the toiseach position rather than a FF/FG overall majority which h may have slipped away
The one thing about PR is the seats follow the percentage’s to an extent. That 12-14% Lab/SD/ Green block will see 20+ seats. PBP could suffer as they got seats on the SF headwind when they fielded too few canditate last time, it could be there transfers that save SF seats this time.
In the LE Labour got 55 councillors, Greens 45 and the SD 22. Labour has the grou d operation all it needs is to be ahead of the other two. It won the MEP seat as well
Slight air of chaos coming in to the Govt campaign.
Electorate are more volatile than they think
Looks like the gloves are now off in FFG.
McEntee strongly criticises Fianna Fáil manifestoThey may have been coalition partners in the last government, but Minister for Justice Helen McEntee has pulled no punches in her criticism of Fianna Fáil's manifesto.Micheál Martin's party's pledge to increase the State pension to €350 per week over the lifetime of the next government is one of a raft of measures announced in its General Election manifesto 'Moving Forward Together'.She said: "It's quite remarkable that after spending the last five years in government, Fianna Fáil has today produced a manifesto that contains so little substance."The Fianna Fáil document is riddled with promises that are so incredibly vague – which is disappointing for a party that claims it wants to lead the next government."The lack of detail in the manifesto is nearly as extraordinary as the fact that the document is full of bizarre costings."For example, Fianna Fáil claims it will generate savings of €3 billion from 'tax compliances and efficiencies.' That's ten times the actual figure in the latest Budget."How exactly did the party arrive at that costing?"This is the type of back-of-the-matchbox-style politics that really could set Ireland backwards and scupper the economic progress that we have made in recent years."
McEntee strongly criticises Fianna Fáil manifesto
They may have been coalition partners in the last government, but Minister for Justice Helen McEntee has pulled no punches in her criticism of Fianna Fáil's manifesto.
Micheál Martin's party's pledge to increase the State pension to €350 per week over the lifetime of the next government is one of a raft of measures announced in its General Election manifesto 'Moving Forward Together'.
She said: "It's quite remarkable that after spending the last five years in government, Fianna Fáil has today produced a manifesto that contains so little substance.
"The Fianna Fáil document is riddled with promises that are so incredibly vague – which is disappointing for a party that claims it wants to lead the next government.
"The lack of detail in the manifesto is nearly as extraordinary as the fact that the document is full of bizarre costings.
"For example, Fianna Fáil claims it will generate savings of €3 billion from 'tax compliances and efficiencies.' That's ten times the actual figure in the latest Budget.
"How exactly did the party arrive at that costing?
"This is the type of back-of-the-matchbox-style politics that really could set Ireland backwards and scupper the economic progress that we have made in recent years."
I don't think they don't know that. The government dithered on the election date because they knew of that volatility.
They think that Sinn Fein won't pick up votes, and they are probably right, but that doesn't mean that they are looking at the right place. I think that all of the major parties (FF, FG, SF, SD, Labour and Greens, even PBP) could suffer. Independents, Independent Ireland, Aontu, I4C, etc. could all pick up more seats. The biggest risk is that there are too many single-issue TDs in the Dail for a government to be formed.
I know SF are having a bad year but there's no way that will end up as low as 10%.
I do not think that the Soc Dems will get anywhere near as high as 8%. However I expect that they will do well on transfers so I think they'll still have a good election (Unless Cairns has more bad interviews)
Can't see Aontu getting 4% either.
SF will be in the 20’s or higher percentage wise,there’s enough opposition votes to do that at least
The FG mis step will probably rise the FF vote.
SF should be making background overtures to FF as a marriage there isn’t out of the question if FG actually lose seats,another thing that’s not out of the question.
Sinn Fein out early with a pledge to remove USC on incomes below €45k paid for by a new tax on higher income earners. Assumedly alongside keeping with their previous plans to abolish property taxes.
Absolute headcase stuff for a tax system which is repeatedly called out for being the most ‘progressive’ in the world and far far too narrow. Taking another chunk of households out of the tax net altogether, as if we didn’t have enough already! It’s like they read the commission for taxation and welfare report and thought.
‘Let’s do the complete opposite’
Clutching at straws and the stupidity of folk who don't understand or care too much for our progressive tax system.
Didn't they claim us stupid people punished them during the last local/EU elections because we thought they were the governing party
Dear oh dear
They never called anybody stupid, think that was a WWN headline that amusingly people are still falling for today, but they were at haste to point out they weren't in government and weren't the ones causing the hardships felt by many
368 waiting on trolleys across our hospital system today, 49 in UHL. If that goes much higher between now and the end of the month it will be a tough sell for FFG to get votes
I wasn't qouting them verbatim, but it was an unwise comment by ML.
But yes, the annual trolley numbers count, is up and running and will only get worse day by day. I sense a bit of complacency from Harris, more a sense of cockiness actually seeing him over the weekend with a smug grin on his face
If anyone get's hammered, although unlikely, i do hope it is FG, and then the Greens
They really should just run exclusively on issues like housing, health etc.
The economic model in this country is unrivalled. It gives any government huge scope to try to fix the other problems (although ultimately nobody will ever truly fix those).
When SF stray into moronic and unnecessary tax policy changes they just show themselves to be a fundamental threat to huge economic success Ireland has seen in the last 20 years.
Focus on housing and health and leave it at that. You won't go too wrong as the main opposition if you just focus on those two during a autumn/winter election.
I think our problems are mostly housing based.
People leave the public sector / won't even join as the wages are not good enough there to afford rent/mortgage and a decent standard of living.
Add in unlimited illegal immigration and practically zero deportations and house prices are going one way.
Also, people won't vote for lower house prices even if it means terrible public services and nowhere for their kids to live/rent. Despite the fact that most people would not be affected by cheaper rent/property.
It's just greed and selfishness. And stupidly. Especially stupid in a very low density country where nearly everyone and their brother was a builder at some stage.
Illegal immigration?
Unlimited illegal immigration. They are certainly breaking the law with no documentation. Maybe some due to no fault of their own, but when it's unlimited, there is a lot of illegal activity.
