I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
I suspect FG and FF will get very close to a combined majority and will be loathe to invite another party in to government.
I think they will be courting Independents. The likes of Team Healy Rae will be able to get commitments on investment for their Communities and I won't begrudge them as they will get things like Bypasses and Hospital Wings which will last long after the Government is gone unlike some of the profligacy we have seen in the last decade. If you have a pragmatic Independent then give them a first or high preference.
How big would the gap between the two have to be to rule out another rotating taoiseach jobbie though? 10 seats? 15? My hunch is FG would conceded a rotating taoiseach to FF irrespective of how far ahead they are because that's the kind of nice middle class boys they are and anything to keep out the shinners. From the other angle, it looks very unlikely to me that FF would have a double-figure seat lead over FG…
Neither FF or FG will do tge oartnof supporting a minority government, there is notjingnin it for the supporting party. You get flak from other opposition parties who attack you and you do bot have boots under the table. Ff & FG will either be in government or not in government there is nothing to be got by supporting the in government party
The 32nd government was a minority government with a confidence and supply arrangement with Fianna Fáil. If the next government is based on FF and FG, it will come down to the numbers as to whether it will be a rotating Taoiseach (as per the 33rd government) or something more like the 32nd.
but does ‘leading’ the government mean anything in practice if there’s going to be a rotating Taoiseach and an equal share of the spoils more broadly?
Not a hope in hell.
I don't think they will get past 16%
It's just a game between the two, they are essentially in competition with each other to be the largest party and thus lead the next government.
DBS were featured on Drivetime tonight. There were 6 prospective candidates on the panel,
O’Callaghan
Geoghegan
Chu
Bacik
Andrews
O’Connell
I thought Andrews was incredibly weak - didn’t come across well. I’d be the last person to give a green a vote, but I thought Chu did okay, certainly held Her own against both of Her coalition colleagues. O’Connell is a no hoper.
How have you assessed what 'most people' think?
O'Leary is an ignorant, exploitative buffoon, but he's entitled to his opinion, it was the hooting and clapping by the FG crowd that is doing the damage and why there has been a swift reaction to distance themselves from the comments, not least by Burke himself.
Not in the slightest surprised. And we shouldn't be surprised to see the same people spending five years moaning about how we need an election to change the terrible government they elected.
Sinn Fein again can't decide if they're a left or a right wing party.
Fianna Fail have had to clarify that they only want weed decriminalised, not every drug.
Agreed. We need a government that will undertake massive social.housing projects as they did in the last century.
Yes, we don't have enough housing stock because there are too many vested interests in keeping property a scarce resource.
And a culture that doesn't want anyone living near them as we seem to be unable to have any kind of anti social behavior rules here. Also, a terrible snobbery problem.
So we end up with scattered low density, expensive to serve housing. And also housing that is internally low density ... huge houses with tiny families.
Also, their has to be planned immigration or there is no housing plan.
Assume you're talking about asylum seekers, who are not illegal immigrants.
And isn't the big problem that they are being housed in unsuitable accommodation, they're not in houses….
Unlimited illegal immigration. They are certainly breaking the law with no documentation. Maybe some due to no fault of their own, but when it's unlimited, there is a lot of illegal activity.
Illegal immigration?
I think our problems are mostly housing based.
People leave the public sector / won't even join as the wages are not good enough there to afford rent/mortgage and a decent standard of living.
Add in unlimited illegal immigration and practically zero deportations and house prices are going one way.
Also, people won't vote for lower house prices even if it means terrible public services and nowhere for their kids to live/rent. Despite the fact that most people would not be affected by cheaper rent/property.
It's just greed and selfishness. And stupidly. Especially stupid in a very low density country where nearly everyone and their brother was a builder at some stage.
Focus on housing and health and leave it at that. You won't go too wrong as the main opposition if you just focus on those two during a autumn/winter election.
They really should just run exclusively on issues like housing, health etc.
The economic model in this country is unrivalled. It gives any government huge scope to try to fix the other problems (although ultimately nobody will ever truly fix those).
When SF stray into moronic and unnecessary tax policy changes they just show themselves to be a fundamental threat to huge economic success Ireland has seen in the last 20 years.
I wasn't qouting them verbatim, but it was an unwise comment by ML.
But yes, the annual trolley numbers count, is up and running and will only get worse day by day. I sense a bit of complacency from Harris, more a sense of cockiness actually seeing him over the weekend with a smug grin on his face
If anyone get's hammered, although unlikely, i do hope it is FG, and then the Greens
They never called anybody stupid, think that was a WWN headline that amusingly people are still falling for today, but they were at haste to point out they weren't in government and weren't the ones causing the hardships felt by many
368 waiting on trolleys across our hospital system today, 49 in UHL. If that goes much higher between now and the end of the month it will be a tough sell for FFG to get votes
Clutching at straws and the stupidity of folk who don't understand or care too much for our progressive tax system.
Didn't they claim us stupid people punished them during the last local/EU elections because we thought they were the governing party
Dear oh dear
Sinn Fein out early with a pledge to remove USC on incomes below €45k paid for by a new tax on higher income earners. Assumedly alongside keeping with their previous plans to abolish property taxes.
Absolute headcase stuff for a tax system which is repeatedly called out for being the most ‘progressive’ in the world and far far too narrow. Taking another chunk of households out of the tax net altogether, as if we didn’t have enough already! It’s like they read the commission for taxation and welfare report and thought.
‘Let’s do the complete opposite’
SF will be in the 20’s or higher percentage wise,there’s enough opposition votes to do that at least
The FG mis step will probably rise the FF vote.
SF should be making background overtures to FF as a marriage there isn’t out of the question if FG actually lose seats,another thing that’s not out of the question.
I know SF are having a bad year but there's no way that will end up as low as 10%.
I do not think that the Soc Dems will get anywhere near as high as 8%. However I expect that they will do well on transfers so I think they'll still have a good election (Unless Cairns has more bad interviews)
Can't see Aontu getting 4% either.
I don't think they don't know that. The government dithered on the election date because they knew of that volatility.
They think that Sinn Fein won't pick up votes, and they are probably right, but that doesn't mean that they are looking at the right place. I think that all of the major parties (FF, FG, SF, SD, Labour and Greens, even PBP) could suffer. Independents, Independent Ireland, Aontu, I4C, etc. could all pick up more seats. The biggest risk is that there are too many single-issue TDs in the Dail for a government to be formed.
Looks like the gloves are now off in FFG.
McEntee strongly criticises Fianna Fáil manifestoThey may have been coalition partners in the last government, but Minister for Justice Helen McEntee has pulled no punches in her criticism of Fianna Fáil's manifesto.Micheál Martin's party's pledge to increase the State pension to €350 per week over the lifetime of the next government is one of a raft of measures announced in its General Election manifesto 'Moving Forward Together'.She said: "It's quite remarkable that after spending the last five years in government, Fianna Fáil has today produced a manifesto that contains so little substance."The Fianna Fáil document is riddled with promises that are so incredibly vague – which is disappointing for a party that claims it wants to lead the next government."The lack of detail in the manifesto is nearly as extraordinary as the fact that the document is full of bizarre costings."For example, Fianna Fáil claims it will generate savings of €3 billion from 'tax compliances and efficiencies.' That's ten times the actual figure in the latest Budget."How exactly did the party arrive at that costing?"This is the type of back-of-the-matchbox-style politics that really could set Ireland backwards and scupper the economic progress that we have made in recent years."
McEntee strongly criticises Fianna Fáil manifesto
They may have been coalition partners in the last government, but Minister for Justice Helen McEntee has pulled no punches in her criticism of Fianna Fáil's manifesto.
Micheál Martin's party's pledge to increase the State pension to €350 per week over the lifetime of the next government is one of a raft of measures announced in its General Election manifesto 'Moving Forward Together'.
She said: "It's quite remarkable that after spending the last five years in government, Fianna Fáil has today produced a manifesto that contains so little substance.
"The Fianna Fáil document is riddled with promises that are so incredibly vague – which is disappointing for a party that claims it wants to lead the next government.
"The lack of detail in the manifesto is nearly as extraordinary as the fact that the document is full of bizarre costings.
"For example, Fianna Fáil claims it will generate savings of €3 billion from 'tax compliances and efficiencies.' That's ten times the actual figure in the latest Budget.
"How exactly did the party arrive at that costing?
"This is the type of back-of-the-matchbox-style politics that really could set Ireland backwards and scupper the economic progress that we have made in recent years."
Slight air of chaos coming in to the Govt campaign.
Electorate are more volatile than they think
The one thing about PR is the seats follow the percentage’s to an extent. That 12-14% Lab/SD/ Green block will see 20+ seats. PBP could suffer as they got seats on the SF headwind when they fielded too few canditate last time, it could be there transfers that save SF seats this time.
In the LE Labour got 55 councillors, Greens 45 and the SD 22. Labour has the grou d operation all it needs is to be ahead of the other two. It won the MEP seat as well
FF is away less likely to go with SF this time unless the numbers add up as the only option. Last time you had Jim O'Callaghan championing it and he refused an offer of a ministerial ( not aure if a full cabinet positiom or junior) post because he taught the government would not survive. Now he is yesterdays man even if there is more positions after the election he might not get an offer even if he dose it will probably be a junior post. This time the devil you know is better than the devil you do not. FF&FG policies are much nearer than FF&SF.
TBH Martin f@@ked up holding off on giving Harris the go ahead 3-4 weeks ago. The election should have bern next Friday, Friday week at the latest. Willie O'Dea wrote a good article on it yesterday in the Indo. Martin was watching the toiseach position rather than a FF/FG overall majority which h may have slipped away
