I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
I see a lot of people predicting a Labour resurgence I assume based on the locals.
I just don't see where they get the seats. Their current TDs standing again: Alan Kelly, Ged Nash, Duncan Smith and Ivana.
Theyre losing: Sean Sherlock, Aodhan ORiordain and Brendan Howlin.
Outside their current TDs, I just don't see where they are going to pick up seats. For example, in DBN, their candidate didn't get elected in the locals. He has zero chance despite the area losing 3 incumbents.
On the locals - Kildare x2, Cork NC, Galway, Tipp South, the other side of Fingal, Dublin West, retain Wexford
Would be implausible for all of those, but some are likely.
A dedicated deportation plane 😂 Jaysus you're gullible
O'Leary's comments and the FG faithful laughing at teachers dominating the news cycle this morning. What a blunder and way to start a campaign. A party who incompetently messed it up last time with the Black and Tans do it all over again in 2024.
Not sure what they were thinking having MOL speaking at that event for Burke, you know what to expect from one of the most outspoken business man in Ireland.
Obviously it was said in jest (You'd hope) but the backround laughter has amplified the anger amongst teachers & Unions. May be costly to an extent in that bloc of voters
Michael O'Leary echoing what many people think about there being teachers in the Dail and the utter slowness that comes with this.
The public is sick of how slow things are in Ireland.
In fairness, the specific two he mentions in this article are pretty useless, so it's a fair point
They also got 2 new local seats in Cork South Central. They are definitely in with a shout for a bunch of seats, although how many they win is hard to guess. I do think they will increase in overall seats though.
Yet at the same time he's telling people to vote for FG and FF, who are led by a teacher
FG are some clowns letting him anywhere near the campaign. Publicity for Ryanair is what he wants and he got it
Holly Cairns not coming across very well on Claire Byrne at the moment. She doesn’t inspire confidence I think.
Holly Cairns giving a car crash interview on the radio not knowing a lot of her own policies. Disastrous start for the Social Democrats. They had no publicity campaign on the election start presumably because Holly Cairns is heavily pregnant and is staying in Cork.
Yes she was unprepared and unconvincing.
It wasn't the wisest of moves. If i was running as a candidate, i wouldn't have him anywhere near an event i was promoting. He'll always throw out a contraversial line or two.
FG didn't seem too bothered by it either, which i'm sure the Greens wern't overly impressed by, but again, i don't think FG will care a jot what the Greens think as their time in government is almost at an end
Said out loud what most people think.
No one but teachers are upset about this. Maybe teachers won't fly Ryanair anymore? (Doubt it)
My Bet is FF/SF ...would have been SF/FF after last election ...but given recent local election results ....it might hace shifted ...but Local Elections are totally different to a General Election
i would expect a lot of voters take into account what they believe is best for society. Many people in their own homes will prioritise the housing crisis even if they are not directly affected.
The SD could do well, so she's best off just keeping her mouth shut for the next few weeks. I think the SD will get a good chunk of SF votes. I'm giving them my number 2 anyway
Holly needs to be more focused on what she says. I’m trying to listen to what she’s saying but it’s just not landing. She needs media training. It’s all sounding very amateurish really.
Exactly. If you were to calculate the TDs previous professions by percentage, I'm sure teachers would be by far the biggest, probably auctioneers trialing by a long distance in second.
I don't see a problem in highlighting this. It can only be of benefit to have a diverse set of people in the Dáil.
She should have handed over the leadership properly for this period rather than the half-and-half approach
Party is well used to having two people in the leadership role but neither was about to imminently give birth!
Derisively was not the way to do and the FG audience lapping it up was even worse. It's going to be a hard image to dispel in a few weeks.
When you look at Labour, you need to factor in SD and the Greens. They transfer fairly solidly to each other. When there is no other FG &FF canditate available they will get transfers to that block as well as transfers from independents. Labour vote is concentrated in fewer constituencies than the SD or the Greens. The three of them have a voter base of 12-14% which suggests 20+ seats between the three of them.
Bonkers to choose to become a party leader and choose to start a family at the same time in my view. The party will suffer now.
Cian O'Callaghan is should take the lead for them. Why anyone would vote for a party with Bacik as the leader is beyond me so they just need to not say anything too stupid over the next few weeks and they'll do well.
I already said previously in the thread how Catherine Murphy called to my door and how they WILL go in to government if given the chance.
My prediction.
FF 24%
FG 22%
SF 10%
Greens 4%
SD 8%
Lab 5%
Indepedent Ireland 4%
Aontú 4%
PBP 2%
Indos/rest 17%
Climate change is the biggest challenge facing this country, my vote is primarily determined by that. Leaves me with Greens first, and Sinn Fein last, with everyone else in between. My biggest concern is that the Greens have lost their way a little since the last election and got distracted by other issues.
Sinn Fein are opposed to carbon taxes, so there is a difference between options.
Unless that new housing is going to overlook their own and they will change their tune. People are selfish by nature.
Aontu as the third wheel in a FF/SF coalition is an option.
Both SF and FF have deeply conservative wings, and there could be a pushback (ala Trump) on social issues, maybe even a tightening on abortion legislation.
People with kids will be heavily influenced by housing.
