I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
One of the 3 will take a hammering for sure, i assume it'll be the Greens, FF will do well imo, maybe helped by them serving their time first
Not sure exactly how this works for a 3 party coalition.
I presume each party would be treated individually
So 2020: FF 22.2%, FG 20.9%, Greens 7.1%
I think both FG and FF can beat their 2020 totals.
Even if it's the 3 of them combined then they could still beat it. On a bad day the Greens will drop back to 3% but that 4% loss could be made up by FG alone.
It was but most parties got those refs wrong. Anyway, good of you to acknowledge your error.
Simon called it on the 6-1 news. 29th November. Let the games begin.🤣
I'm sure they're sitting up and giving great notice, as they slide back into government again.
It definitely shifted the dial of Irish politics ever so slightly away from the cosy NGO-led no-debate consensus. The referenda made all of our major parties sit up and notice that if you want to bring about social change it's not enough to just say "Modern Ireland" and brand all opposition as hate filled anachronistic bigots.
Are you joking? That result put the fear of god into all of the parties. It had 2 major impacts that I can think of off the top of my head
Yawn
noone cares but you blanch I'm afraid
Do you have a full list of the Sinn Fein populist u-turns? I had forgotten that one, it can be hard to keep up.
Quite a misjudgement by MLMD that she had to completely reverse her policy.
Your claim was that without HTB scheme councils would be snapping up those houses instead - which is false. Councils do not engage in open bidding wars on new builds. They have discussions direct with developers at either pre sales or well post sales if there is anything simply not selling.
HTB is not boosting overall FTB numbers, it just inflated prices and allows one group of FTB to get in ahead of another group who don't have HTB who end up missing out. It is a zero sum game.
And post referendum SF said they wouldn't. By all means be critical but for the purposes of accuracy be complete.
Are they the referenda that MLMD is going to run again?
How can a result of referenda be suppressed? I think everyone can recall all the main parties even SF got a bloody nose from that result. But it was a very specific issue.
Anyone notice how the two referenda on 8th March have been completely suppressed in the media recently. Opinion polls stated that they'd both be marginally carried, but no they were roundly rejected
Councils and AHBs do purchase properties outside of new builds, it is your understanding that is wrong if you dont acknowledge that point.
A home owner can sell (or rent out) a second hand home directly to the council or an AHB.
Rude awakening is a figure of speech. I mean their standing faces a torrid time in the upcoming GE.
shinners along with the greens are in for a rude awakening at the next GE.
Not sure how literally you mean 'rude awakening', but I'd imagine both parties are already well aware this is going to be a difficult election for them…
I'm sure you could find independents or other smaller parties that are right wing. If people want the main parties to change policies they have to show their preference at the ballot box.
I’ve had Fiona O’Loughlin at the door. On TWIP, it was mentioned that Patricia Ryan was standing as an independent- hopefully she won’t get in. Reflecting on her & Stanley’s desertion from the SF, I’d say the shinners along with the greens are in for a rude awakening at the next GE.
Councils do not get into bidding wars for new build homes. They engage with developers early to block buy a certain number of units on top of Part V obligations, and sometimes they will buy units at end of a phase if demand isn't there (v rare that this happens - only happens for overpriced schemes which HTB would not qualify for)
For housing schemes with significant private demand councils will not be bidding in open market against other FTBers - they simply do not do this. Neither do AHBs.
Your understanding of how the housing market works in this country is wrong
Councils often buy up additional stock in new developments, on top of the part v allocation.
They also purchase from private sellers.
I would like to see the evidence that FTBs would have purchased 100% of HTB purchased homes.
The aim is to increase the number of homes for sale, not remain static with our output.
Even if FTBs could swallow all the new housing demand, we know there is additional demand from the HTB market.
If we cut that demand off, we ultimatley reduce the numbers of first time buyers, especially when housing output increases.
There are far more would be FTBs in the market right now than houses to buy. Many of those are being priced out in bidding wars, not by AHBs or councils, but by other FTBs.
If those availing of HTB were removed from the market, market prices of homes would drop slightly, enabling other buyers to get in.
AHBs and councils do not buy houses in bidding wars against other private FTBs. It does not work that way.
You fundamentally misunderstand how they procure new build housing.
Not all HTB purchasers would have been able to buy a home without the scheme.
If the scheme is abolished, there are simply less new home owners, as not all homes purchased via HTB would have been purchased by FTBs.
You would see investors, councils and AHBs purchasing them, meaning fewer homes would be sold to people that want to live in the home.
so who’s had canvassers around already?
I’ve had two sets so far
A non HTB using FTB could purchase instead no doubt.
It literally is a zero sum game - either a FTB with HTB purchases, or a FTB without HTB purchases. The only difference in these scenarios is price: with HTB available we now have more potential buyers than before, supply has not changed, ergo prices must rise.
How many of the HTB purchasers do you think would have been able to buy a home without the scheme?
I would think it's just a bare faced lie from government, or a tiny snapshot of an outlier of a week rather than an annual average.
From geuzes post above, FTB buying new builds is 5500 per year, assuming all of them were using HTB and an average of 4 person per household (way above actual average), still only comes to 22000, 3k short of the govts 500 per week stat.
It's an impossible stat
I was just repeating what the Govt were saying regularly enough in the media. Your figures make sense; probably what those guys were saying was 500 people were going into houses with HTB assistance EACH week. That's very different from saying 500 units were newly occupied each week. I acknowledge your correction.
Credit to Seamus Coffey, UCC.
FTB are doing 17,500 transactions, of which new houses are about 5,500.
Here is some possible info:
https://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2024/10/decline-in-ftb-purchases-of-existing.html
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w0.vanillicon.com/v2/0e54e8024b002427df3ce2953d22b721.svg)
