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Cork North Central - General Election 2024

dulpit

Hey all,

With the General Election on it's way, how do people see North Central going?

The last election results looked like this:.

According to Adrian Kavanagh's website, the following people have been nominated so far:

Deputy Thomas Gould (Sinn Féin), Deputy Pádraig O’Sullivan (Fianna Fáil), Deputy Colm Burke (Fine Gael), Cllr. Tony Fitzgerald (Fianna Fáil), Cllr. John Maher (Labour Party), Cllr. Oliver Moran (Green Party), Cllr. Joe Lynch (Sinn Féin), Cllr. Garret Kelleher (Fine Gael), Cllr. Eoghan Kenny (Labour Party), Cllr. Ken O’Flynn (Independent Ireland), Rachel Hurley Roche (Independent/Workers Party), Finian Toomey (Aontú), Imelda Daly (Fine Gael), Derek Blighe (Ireland First), Ciarán McCarthy (Social Democrats), Sandra Murphy Kelleher (Fianna Fáil), Susan Doyle (Social Democrats), John Donohoe (Independent)

The constituency is increasing from 4 to 5 seats, and is taking in territory from Cork East and Cork North West. As per the Examiner's website, the main changes are:

In Cork North-Central in particular, the constituency has seen Ballincollig transferred into it from Cork North-West. Three electoral districts in Cork East, including Mallow, are also being transferred into the constituency.

There will likely be a few more people nominated once the election is called, and Mick Barry hasn't been officially nominated yet (but he'll definitely run, right?), but there will be at least 1 new TD for Cork North Central.

The addition of Mallow in particular will have a big impact on North Central. Sean Sherlock, the Labour TD from Cork East, is not running as a big part of his base was Mallow, so you have to imagine there is a Labour vote there - so could that mean a Labour seat for the first time since Kathleen Lynch lost her seat in 2016? Sinn Fein would probably have been targetting 2 seats here a few months back, but is that likely to be the case with their woes lately? And Ken O'Flynn from Independent Ireland looks like he might be in with a shout too.

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Brussels Sprout

Gould, O'Sullivan & Burke should all be safe - which is interesting considering all 3 of them were competing for a seat in the 2019 by-election.

I think Kenneth O'Flynn will get elected as well for Independent Ireland. That's probably bad news for Tony Fitzgerald since he'll be taking some of the otherwise FF vote there.

No idea who gets the final seat: Mick Barry, John Maher, Fitzgerald, Garrett Kelleher and Joe Lynch are possibly all in with a shout.

One interesting thing is that most of the parties seem to be running too many candidates (Lab and Soc Dems running 2 each is bananas; Same for FF and FG running 3 each - likely some gender quota padding going on there though). A bloated field will have a knock-on effect when it comes to transfers as it will likely increase leakage. For that reason it's even more vital to get a big number of first preference votes.

For that reason I'll predict that Mick Barry holds on to his seat (if he runs) purely because he's probably the best known of the rest and the other far-left candidate is an unknown (she ran on a south-side LEA in the recent locals)

Very interesting that Derek Blighe has chosen to run in CNC. I believe he is from Fermoy so Cork East would be his natural constituency. I suspect that he took note of the large vote that Ross Lahive got in the local elections. Regardless he hasn't a hope of getting elected but he's got a big enough name to hoover up a lot of the anti-migrant vote - which will probably eventually end up with O'Flynn if he's learned any electioneering tricks from his old man.

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122783836#Comment_122783836

I believe that the reason both Labour & Soc Dems are running 2 candidates is geographical spread, 1 for the city and 1 for the Mallow area and hoping that 1 will get the others transfers before they both get eliminated. Risky move though, esp for Labour as I could see John Maher in with a shout.

thejuggler

Sandra Murphy Kelleher is a surprise selection for me. Would have thought her husband - councillor (and former Lord Mayor) Colm Kelleher was a shoe in for the nomination given his strong showing in the recent local elections? Maybe his Ballincollig base isn’t enough in the larger CNC constituency. If I recall correctly Sandra was parachuted in at the last minute in the 2020 GE too

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122784681#Comment_122784681

Any time you see a surprise candidate chosen and it's a women then it's likely that she was chosen in order to meet the party's overall gender quota (40% of candidates in this election, up from 30% in 2020). I believe that some parties are rather cynically picking low profile female candidates to get them onto the ballot but not actually threaten their other candidates.

Straight Talker

Hopefully that tramp Derek Blighe doesn't get in.

cute geoge

Would voters even recognise Derek Blighes name as he has ran in the other area for the council he picked up a few votes in the mep elections but will that increase his name recognisation.The airways and papers don't like giving him any media exposure

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122794286#Comment_122794286

I don't think he's as well know with normal people as he is with the always online crowd. He'll attract a vote alright from the anti government, anti immigrant cohort. But I can't see him being a big factor here.

Manach

Ah, I did not know about the Mallow change. That explains the Mick Barry supporters with the socialist chic and Palestinian flags were around the town.

dulpit

Just clocked that Susan Doyle is running for the Soc Dems in North Central. She ran for Europe but also in the locals last time out. The bit that's odd is that she ran locally in Cork City South East (Douglas/Rochestown/etc) so she's out of her constituency I reckon.

My guess is that the Soc Dems feel they are in with a shout in south central with Padraig Rice, who won a seat on the council, and will try to use Susan Doyle in North Central to pick up on her profile from the euro elections (although she was fairly quiet there).

dulpit

Also noticed that Ken O'Flynn already has a few posters up in Blackpool area. Bit early...

opus

First thing this morning on Shandon St, weren't there last night.

dulpit

I always think that the Solidarity/PBP posters are way too wordy. Mick Barry's is a prime example of this.

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122815408#Comment_122815408

That black band at bottom of Thomas Gould's poster is the perfect height for a 3rd candidate that they are now not running. So I assume they had previously planned 3 candidates until their recent polling started to drop. Wonder who got left out?

Hangdogroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122815408#Comment_122815408

Harbour View Road has a TG poster on almost every pole.

dulpit

Saw a handful of Derek Blighe posters when driving around northside earlier this morning. Whoever put his posters up must have had an extra long ladder, they've gone up very high.

Also notice he's running under thr National Alliance banner. Worrying if the far right can get their act together and work together. Hopefully he's a non entity when it comes to counting votes.

cute geoge

If the right are to be represented in the next daily,would Dzerek Bligje be there best chance of getting elected. The calibre of candidates seem poor in CNC so he will be in with a chance.

opus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122819790#Comment_122819790

When people put posters up extra high it's because they're worried about them being cut down. A friend of mine in Germany explained that to me when I asked why AfD posters were so much higher than others on the poles in their city.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122821113#Comment_122821113

Also harder to push them, with for example an umbrella, so that they face away from the road.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122819861#Comment_122819861

I think if they make a break though it'll be somewhere where they have gotten local councillors elected previously.

Cork North Central is basically the 2 Cork City northside LEAs + a rural stretch to Mallow (probably encompassing Mallow LEA). Between the 3 of those LEAs they didn't feature at all in 2 of them and in one of them Ross Lahive missed out on the last seat (but by 200 votes - so he wasn't particularly close).

I don't think the voter base is there for them in CNC to get someone elected.

They got 2 people elected to Dublin City council so it'd be more likely that they make the breakthrough in a Dublin constituency.

EnzoScifo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122821189#Comment_122821189

Also includes Ballincollig this time around.

Can't see Blight having a chance. He's from Fermoy, so he's out of his locality, probably hoping there are some urban votes for him.

TheDriver

And Glanmire. So Cork NC now is Northside city, Ballincollig, Glanmire and Mallow.

I'd put bets on Eoghan Kenny. He's the only candidate north of blarney and is taking over the Sherlock dynasty.

Padraig o Sullivan will take Glanmire vote and there's a few Ballincollig candidates to split the vote there.

That leaves a few high profile candidates for north city. Mick Barry will be under pressure if burke and Gould take the city votes.

It'll be interesting

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122822931#Comment_122822931

I have a feeling Mick Barry will be last man looking in, with 1 of the labour candidates taking the final seat from him. But that could be just hopeful thinking.

DylanQuestion

Glanmire is on the northside of the city. I’m surprised Ballincollig is in this area and not South Central, since they said they’d use the Lee as the border between the two areas

EnzoScifo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122823253#Comment_122823253

all down to balancing the populations of constituencies

dulpit

Was pushing a car last night that had broken down and some canvassers came around the corner at the same time so they all rolled in to help out, all very polite and cheery.

After the car was shifted the lead canvasser came over. Derek bloody Blighe was who they were out for. I wanted to have a pop at her, but they had just helped out so I told her I live in Cork South Central (I do) and didn't take a leaflet. Blighe himself came around the corner a few minutes later, but didn't stop. Thankfully.

He had a big cohort out (at least 10, a range of ages)

gooseman12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122824525#Comment_122824525

ya, still seems like a bit of a mess, Mallow, Glanmire, Ballincollig, North city all in together, its a right Frankenstein of a setup. All of the county and city needs a bit of a review if you ask me, the population has shifted around quite a bit over the years and the constituency divisions don't seem to fit quite right at all anymore.

the beer revolu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122833931#Comment_122833931

Tell me you are white, Irish and not obviously gay or trans without telling me you are white, Irish and not obviously gay or trans 😂

the beer revolu

Weren't these changes only made pretty recently?

(I'm not disagreeing with you, mind)

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122834756#Comment_122834756

I am indeed white and the guy helping me push car is also white (although with a big Slovakian head and accent up on him). I wonder if they would have done different if that wasn't the case?

gooseman12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122834761#Comment_122834761

Not sure if that was back at me, but yes the most recent changes were made in 2023 according to this

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/members/constituencies-34/