Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

We have to be fair and remember that, for these kinds of segments, they'll keep rolling until they have enough funny material to fill two minutes. It cannot be taken as a representative sample of the US electorate.

I don't know if it's gone that far, but it wouldn't surprise me that if Trump were caught all ends up with evidence of having diddled young girls on Epstein's island, you would get talking heads trying out talking points about how rock stars have done the same thing and that the age of consent is really just an arbitrary number etc. No end of twisting of moral standards and perception of reality to accommodate little Donald.

Musk is in line for a job in Trump's administration. The situation is completely different.

I’m gonna predict a Harris victory. 🫡

Some of trumps base will have died in shooting accidents and such since last time.

Fresh information.

Dems aim was 1 million voters in. This is significantly more.

Democrats are not voting Republican.

Some Republicans have to be voting Democrats?

Most Independents voting Democrats I'd say too.

Democrats are not voting Republican.

I imagine that registered Democrats skew massively toward voting for that party, yes.

Some Republicans have to be voting Democrats?

Has to be a non-zero number, but do we have any way of knowing how many 'some' really is?

Most Independents voting Democrats I'd say too.

What's your basis for saying this? I mean, I would say that any objective voter would see Trump for the utter charlatan that he is, yet he's still apparently within a coin toss of winning the election, so registered independents must be declaring for him somewhere. That is if the polls are not hugely overestimating his support, which could also be the case, but we're really not going to know that until some time after November 5th.

How distinctly unpalatable he is, given all that he is and has done. Now, if they aren't aware of this because of the media bubble they are in, that's them ruled out.

I find him unpalatable and I assume you do, too, but one big question is what independents in PA think. As said, if American voters found Trump as unpalatable as most in the country do, it wouldn't even be a contest, but this is obviously not the case.

The replies below this Twitter thread are interesting talking about the 'firewall' the Democrats need in order to be in with a good chance on the day. This is to do with the idea of needing a certain buffer of a lead in order to counteract the typical Republican surge of in-person ballots on election day, I take it.

Oh, you just meant the daytime?

Doing Rogan would only help her chances. I agree that it's completely stupid not to do it. It may mean an hour less sleep out of the four or five that she may only get anyway, but no-one said the campaign trail wasn't a slog. A bad misstep.

I see she went on Stern, but Stern is completely deferential to Democrats these days. People will have listened to that, but it's not going to be as natural a conversation as Rogan because of some of the stupid or ill-informed things Rogan can blurt out.

It's what I've been saying for a little while now - I don't think Trump cancelling some more mainstream interviews is that damaging when he is appearing on these podcasts with a large younger male demographic. This is what his campaign seem to be going for. The big risk for the Trump campaign, though, is whether they actually turn up to vote.

What do you think he will do or say on that show?