I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Sinn Fein are quite explicit in their intention to remove tax credits on a tapered basis for those earning over €100k along with a 3% tax on incomes over €140k.
For a married, newly appointed public hospital consultant, this would reduce their take home by €11,500 per year or just about a €1k per month pay cut. Great news for hospital waiting lists no doubt…
Thankfully nonsense we don’t need to worry about anymore.
I think that's a problem for people in the public eye in general. We are rarely punishing crime anymore and of course, people become more emboldened and start to believe that it is acceptable to commit crime. Learnt behaviour, really.
Politicians encountering regular online, physical and verbal abuse are a high profile example of same.
I expect most politicians in Ireland wont stay in the game as long as they would have in days gone by.
We are building the most units per capita in Europe yet its not enough.
Get ready for a massive correction in the next 18 months. We will have ghost estates and negative equity.
" The pace of construction of new residential homes in Ireland is continuing to accelerate according to the latest forecasts from EY-Euroconstruct, with estimates for completions revised upwards to 36,000 for this year and to 41,000 for 2025. Housing completions per 1,000 of population in Ireland - at 6.9 in 2024 and 7.7 in 2025 - are projected to be the strongest among the 19 Euroconstruct European countries and more than double the overall average (3.3 per 1,000 in 2024 and 3.1 in 2025"
https://www.ey.com/en_ie/news/2024/06/irish-housing-completions-forecast-to-be-strongest-among-19-european-countries-ey-euroconstruct#:~:text=Housing%20completions%20per%201%2C000%20of%20population%20in%20Ireland%20%2D%20at%206.9,2024%20and%203.1%20in%202025).
True.
O'Brien will point to the new Planning Act and whatever the LDA manages to deliver, but this is now about three significant blockages.
Capital, construction inflation, and NIMBYism.
Did you literally stop at anecdotes? or did you bother to read the next couple of words?
Agreed, particularly when there's oceans of actual evidence accrued over a decade!
No but in this case there is plenty of hard evidence that there's a housing crisis in this country.
Yes I think so, smart move by FFG, as it avoids both their Christmas holidays and the peak hospital trolley seasons, sneaky
Anecdotal and news stories about nurses unable to come from abroad to take up roles etc, nearly sure there was something on the news yesterday about school teachers also.
Anecdotes should not form the basis of government policy.
Our tax intake is so high currently there is absolutely no need by anyone to increase the tax, and no party has indicated they would.
The HSE is not underfunded, just badly managed. It's going to take 10 years to fix. Maybe the next sitting government should see how the labour plan is going with regards their 10 year plan to fix the NHS and take notes.
However, the HSE is not and should not be the main priority to fix. It's gotta be housing. Anecdotal and news stories about nurses unable to come from abroad to take up roles etc, nearly sure there was something on the news yesterday about school teachers also.
Thankfully, that clown O'Brien should be nowhere near this in about 8 weeks time. Question is, who's next. Not a huge talent pool out there
I don't think SF are planning to tax people up the arse. If they get into power then it would be as a junior partner to either FG or FF.
However going by the polls this is unlikely at the moment
Good point. I think it would be simplistic to simply feel a handful of experiences means that the health service is functioning. I have a dead close relative because the A an E service was so bad.
I personally can't access mental health services in my area as they are non existent. All manifestos are open to negotiation.
I don't deny people have positive experiences but I think you need to talk to more people about the health service before passing judgement
I've spent time in Hospital this year with a serious illness, and some of my immediate family members have done similar over the last couple of years. I or they have not experienced anything that can be described as a poor health service.
And as to your point, voting for SF will not improve the HSE one iota. If anything they plan to increase taxes on Doctors and consultants simply for earning over 100k. Given our need to recruit so many from abroad and we compete with other countries, it would make voting for SF as the largest opposition party a bad choice if your concerned about health.
The health service is fine, once you get past the point of entry. The ED and outpatients is where the pinch points are.
The problem is actually too much leftism in government policy down the decades, where they have failed to smash the Unions and various professional bodies, who have been the ones blocking a 7 day health service that reflects real life, instead of a 9-5, 5 days a week, outside of which you dare not become ill.
I'd sooner take my chances with the current restructuring, albeit painfully slow, rather than risk Sinn Féin, who want to make absolutely sure I could not afford my private health insurance premiums, by taxing my family up the arse, and which thanks to the economic success of the outgoing government, I currently can.
Also those 18 to 25 days don't include Sundays and Bank Holidays.
All signs point to 29th Nov.
It won't be dissolved this week as they need to pass the Finance Bill before that happens. They have committed to doing that before the election is called.
Just doing a quick bit of math
The election must be held 18 to 25 days after the dissolution of the Dáil
If the Dáil is Disolved this coming Friday the 25th that means an election must be between the 12th and the 19th of November. The 15th falls in this range
For the proposed Green Party date of November 29th the Dáil would need to be disolved between the 4th and the 11th
Neither date is long after the US Presidential election which could have a bearing on results and the format of TV debates. It could get very interesting indeed
Where are these coming from? Some very dubious predictions there
Aontu on 3? Really? What are the 2 new seats they're going to win?
Labour on 2? Again, really?
Sinn Fein only losing 3 seats? Is this person even looking at the latest polling data? I have been arguing against them dropping under 20 but having them on 34 seems fanciful.
If any of these guys making prediction models were being honest they'd have error bars on their predictions of plus or minus 5-10 seats, which for the small parties makes them practically meaningless.
It's impossible to make accurate predictions in our elections for 2 reasons:
That means that all these models instead resort to projecting national polling data onto individual constituencies. That's really only useful for the big 3 parties who will be competitive in almost every constituency in the country.
For smaller parties, especially those who only run candidates in certain constituencies it's a very clumsy approximation. Somebody predicting Aontu getting 3 seats is a good indicator that that's what this person has done here.
If you vote FF or FG you essentially are saying you accept the poor health service or this is the best we can do. I do accept improvements are happening but not enough to be noticeable to the general public. The same goes for the legal, insurance and medical profession.
FF/FG will never touch their buddies
It has to be SF with one of these parties. FF or FG..
There is no left wing alliance possible
It's hard to know with PBPA/Sol, I don't see them retaining Smith's seat with De Nortúin though she might unseat Joan Collins.Gino Kenny might hold on given SF's problems, I think Murphy is vulnerable but I suspect he'll hold on, Coppinger should get back in DW with the extra seat and SFs prospects of a second now redundant. Mick Barry in CNC is also vulnerable. Conor Reddy in DNW could do well but in a 3 seater I think it's a stretch to see him elected. On a good day they get 6 (RBB, Murphy, Kenny, De Nortuin, Coppinger and Barry) on a bad day they get 2 (RBB, Coppinger).
The people compiling them call them predictions.
If it was just polling data applied to seats you wouldn't have two parties polling similarly with such huge variance in the claimed outcome.
They aren't predictions, they are aggregated poll data from the big Sunday newspaper polls of recent weeks, which is what I described it as.
They don't take into account anything on a constituency level or local quirks or recent boundary changes etc.
But I'd still say that if the election outcome reflects the polling, those seat totals will be right within +/- 20%, which is to say FG will be within 40 and 60 seats, and so on.
I can't imagine there will be anywhere near a 20 seat gap between FF/FG, more in the region of 10(max) I'd have also have thought that PBP would also be half of the 4 they currently have. I think thankfully that Murphy's charade as a voice for the people in Tallaght west may be up, and isn't Brid retiring? Another who was given a ridiculous amount of airtime
Those seats prediction guys are never right. Figures below the top three are random guesswork and realistically, the figures they're giving SF now are at best described as misguided
FF and FF figures may be close to reality.
I’m in my late 60’s & was always a Labour supporter. But that all changed after the shenanigans of the likes of gilmore burton kelly & not forgetting ‘telling lies to get into power’ rabbitte. I swore to myself I’ll never vote Labour again. I liked the leadership of Shortall/ Murphy in the SD’s. But the thought of the SD’s combining with Labour is making me have 2nd thoughts about voting SD.
One things for certain, she won't be proclaiming that she "may well be the next Taoiseach" like she did during the last count.
Alls not well within FG clearly given the timing and manner someone as high profile as Heather Humphreys steps aside. I thought she was one of the few left that isn’t a total looney tune. Level headed, a common touch and connects very well with the older FG base- so much for the “new energy” reheat they’re trying to spin
Seat aggregation from last few weekends' polling:
Fine Gael - 50
Independents and Others - 39
Sinn Féin - 34
Fianna Fáil - 30
Soc Dems- 7
Independent Ireland - 4
People Before Profit - 4
Aontú - 3
Labour - 2
Greens - 1
This rumour was debunked on another thread. They picked Chris Andrews at the end of August. See Adrian Kavanaghs site
Pressure now for Sinn Fein to pick someone for Dublin Bay South. I suspect we'll have all the names in the ring by the end of the week.
