I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
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Maybe giving herself time for a run at the Aras?
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Saw this on twitter, FF FG might get a majority between them, might like a smaller party along for numbers. Would the Social Democrats go into coalition with them if that was the case?
37 for SF seems optimistic given their poll numbers.
It's always interesting that this is said of anyone we disagree with and never ourselves.
Sure I've had posters disagree with and dismiss independent archeological evidence because it didn't suit their ideology.
This is even more delusional than usual for that lad.
SF are not getting 37. SF are not getting 27 at this rate.
They're polling at 16% which could easily turn in to 12-14% at the actual polls. They are not getting a transfer bonus. They are running too many candidates and will lose seats due to this.
Cannot imagine those FG & SF seats predictions coming true.
PBP are getting it in the neck from voters who would have given them a vote in the past because of their open borders policies.
I think it will be a wipe out for them.
It's highly unlikely that they'll be as low as 16% in the election, election campaigns matter and much can change. You're being consistently too categorical on their likely seat losses. After a terrible week for them they're only down 2%, FF are down 1%, both within MOE.
The poll window started before the terrible week - the 10th. There's more fall to come.
It is a reflection of the abuse she gets for being from a minority community. Very difficult to continue on with that type of abuse. We had some people at it only this week on here.
FG are now in a great position. They can put themselves forward as both continuity and renewal, with many senior TDs stepping aside and being replaced by those who were very successful in local elections and have excellent local name recognition.
Contrast that with the main opposition party who will be putting up the same tired faces such as MLMD, Pearse, Dessie and AOS. No renewal there as their candidates tanked in the locals and the new faces from the last general election turned out to be nuts.
I think they will be in the range of 12-16% unless there is some major policy initiative, push for change, or government faux-pas.
Most people recognise the government are making progress, albeit slow, and that it is difficult to increase that.
With half the party resigning, I don't know if FG's position in the polls will be reflected in the results of the election, still think name recognition counts for something, over and above party loyalty.
But it included this week's sh!t show didn’t it? We'll see in due time if their fall is as dramatic as you're predicting.
When it comes to Dublin Airport's growth and the support of aviation the Greens are partly to blame… Having a Minister for Transport and a Tourism Minister that seem to be pretty much useless at their portfolios…. I remember Seamus Brennan being very proactive and supportive in his role as Minister for Transport… this man couldn't care less because it goes against his party policies… Anyway he's going so maybe things will change after the election…
I just happened to run into and speak to a local FF TD down here in Wexford today, he says that FF are very much in the mind that Dublin Airport is vital as an island nation to have connectivity to the world and for our economy, and supports the lifting of the cap as it is crazy.
Also this piece from Ivan Yates not too long ago..
Much as Harris is doing well and is popular, I think the 18 non runners is going to hurt big time.
They don't even have a good candidate to replace the retiring Michael Ring which was a guaranteed seat as long as he was there.
I think FF will certainly be close enough to FG to retain the rotating Taoiseach idea assuming they both end up in government again.
Heather not running here is going to hurt in terms of their second seat ambitions. She is popular with a good few not because she is FG but because in her various ministries she pumped a lot of money into a wide range of places and organisations. FG can’t depend on all of her vote.
According to the poll today the three parties in gov are on 47% surely they'd be higher if 'most' people recognised they are 'making progress?
SF have never attracted transfers the same as other parties. Which is to say, they have a very, very solid base.
I don't think they'll loose a whole heap in percentage terms from their June results, but their best outcome now is to hold their representation, allowing for the increase to 174 seats. So they have 33 now, they would need 36 to be counted as standing still.
30 or less, and its all over for Mary Lou and this generation of SF leadership.
We haven't seen a percentage for satisfaction with the government, but I would guess it to be over 50% as there are some who vote for gene-pool independents who believe that.
Some of it for some respondents. Not all of it and some people were surveyed nine days ago
RBB will get in, Paul Murphy too probably.
The rest will be under pressure, but certainly, the working class vote has changed over the past 4/5 years. It may not vote for those lads as readily.
I don't know if it was a "rock concert", but there was a party in Dublin Castle.
Imagine cheering and applauding the intentional destruction of unborn babies.
I don't think the majority of people responded to the result like this.
I met a Labour Cllr from Sligo who was very happy.
What is the chance that FF +FG will get enough seats between them to form a Govt?
Low chance?
Very low chance?
Impossible?
The Dublin Airport passenger cap is something set in place by Fingal Co Co when planning was applied for. It is not with Ryan's remit (or any other government minister's remit) to change it despite the mouthing off by MOL.
As for the FF TD you spoke to - dis you ask them why FF haven't lifted the cap or were you happy just to let them tell you what you wanted to hear?
Just the two of them? They'd need 88 seats.
Before SFs recent implosion I'd have said odds worse than 50/50. Now I'd say better than 50/50.
My most likely outcome at the moment would be FG/FF and Independent Ireland in a deal.
FG and FF will probably talk to Labour and the Soc Dems, but ultimately I don't see them having a huge interest in a leftist dog tail, and I think we can discount the Greens from any serious participation. Much like the last 4.5 years really.
Id imagine it was women celebrating the fact that at last they are in charge of their own bodies and health. Like men have always been.
You need to talk to DAA who manage all the airports and seem to have little or no interest in building up the other airports, people having to travel the country to Dublin for flights when they could be more than capable of flying from another airport
I did the numbers before but the population spilt across Ireland and then take the percentage of flights from Dublin are massively out of sync. Maybe that is something we should look at?
In actual fact there’s barely a cigarette paper between FF and FG policy wise. We will have an election and be persuaded that a govt with FF leading it is different from a Govt with FG leading it … because between them they have the system all sewn up.
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