https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jun/09/eu-europe-elections-2024-results-news-updates-live-latest
I'm absolutely shocked
Looks like a catastrophe for the centre ground in France.
Let's see how the markets respond this week.
Macron is a lame duck.
The homophobic supporters of the far right National Rally must be very disappointed at such a showing. Lets hope this puts them back in their box rather than galvanised into lashing out in violent hate.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240619-rights-safety-lgbtq-people-danger-risk-far-right-win-french-parliamentary-elections-bardella-le-pen-macron
Shiver just went down my spine God help the French in how they'll put a government together
I'm reading online they want to reduce the retirement age and introduce price controls.
This would be very radical in an Irish context and Labour/Soc Dems wouldn't support those policies.
Not exactly. It would be more like a pact of PBP, Greens, Soc Dems and Labour getting about 60 seats here.
So this is like People Before Profit winning this election?
No, as I understand it they are extrapolations based on the early counts. Not exit polls at all.
You are insufferable.
The real danger was far right with a majority in parliament due to split in vote between far left, left, centre, centre right.
The New Popular Front on course for most seats but long way off a majority. And as you note it is a coalition itself ofsorts - it includes parties other than the far left such as socialists and greens.
From what I read lots in the left coalition don’t like him, no chance of him becoming pm according to that.
Hard right would be definitely be the more dangerous of the two - more likely to lock people up, curtail press freedoms, deport people and so on. They are authoritarians at heart.
Melenchon could be troublesome, isn't he somewhat Marxist? Hopefully his "coalition" partners and his own party will keep him in check.
Sometimes you have to be careful what you wish for. Hard left better than hard right? I dunno…
The big right wing breakthrough never seems to actually happen. The media have been talking about this (and predicting it) for the last ten years at least. The UK press were gleefully predicting impending right wing governments all over Europe a good six or seven years ago.
Shall we have a minute's silence for them?
It's been a quite terrible week for right populists. First the UK result and then most of them around Europe were positively salivating at the idea of a far right government being elected in one of the two main founding members of the EU.
A fair few right wing/fascists folk left very disappointed on this thread tonight .
That’s Britain rejecting the far right and now France . Only the rapist and convicted felon trump to go now.
Vive la France !
Sums up what was said from the start. How the financial markets take it in the next couple of weeks should give some indication.
Delighted. Vive la France.
After all that le pen 3rd. Melenchon was just 1.2% behind her in the first round of the presidential election 2 years ago as well. Will the headlines talk about a leftist surge now? Lol
Unfortunately for France, they re-elected him as President two years ago so that's kind of irrelevant (and not true anyway given his party came second and rather massively exceeded expectations).
They are indeed only exit polls, but French exit polls have a history of reliability. It would be pretty shocking if the actual outcome were not within the range given for the three blocks.
Based on projections after the 3 horse race. At least one good thing thing to come out of it is that Macron finally got clarity that the country rejects him.
Okay, maybe you're looking at "exit polls" - I'm looking at actual seats filled.
Sure, there's still a bit of uncertainty as to how the numerous Paris constituencies will vote (the last polling stations to close) but just about all the other results are in.
Pick any town or village and I'll tell you what the actual results are for the village and the constituency as a whole.
Great news on two election fronts. Hope the Dems in the US now get their act together too.
For those looking for scenes of rioting …
Not sure how many Molotov cocktails you're going to see, as the theme of the evening seems to be "we bate the crap out of the FN. Vive la France!"
I dunno. The French love a protest, but they aren't suicidal vis-a-vis the Republic. It matters greatly to them. And RN represents clear echoes and indeed many direct ties to the despised collaborationist Vichy government of the last World War.
But the only solution to immigration, is a Europe wide plan, not just in the EU, but out to Ukraine and Turkey and Moldova and beyond.
And its clear for Macron, as much as it is for Scholz in Germany, that that plan must be immensely robust and extremely well resourced.
They are exit polls.
the latest projection from a different pollster is predicting a better result for left-greens than the first projection:
Here are updated numbers from pollster Ifop.
Left-green New Popular Front: 180-205
Macron’s allies: 164-174
Far right National Front and allies: 130-145
Most of the polling stations close at 6pm. These are based in communes with small and very small populations so the number of votes cast would be in the hundreds, not thousands. You'll typically have at least half a dozen members of the conseil municipal (local council) counting the votes. In the second round, in my commune, they can get that done in about 15 minutes, at which point they phone the result in to the (equivalent of a) returning officer.
About 80% of the votes will have been counted and reported by 7pm French time, but they're not announced until the last polling stations close at 8. The remainder will come in quickly between 8-9pm, and the last few (big constituencies or disputed counts) by 10.
You can see the breakdown here :
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/carte-les-resultats-des-elections-legislatives-2024-dans-votre-ville-et-par-circonscription-20240707
(Map is "interactive" so I can't link it as an image)
If these exit polls stay true, this is a bit of a shock for me. I expected NR to win but for them to come third is certainly a big shock.
It's a big wake up call for Macron and the French establishment, they cannot go on as they are other wise the NR will eventually win.
It all comes back to Immigration….
