Guys, I’m just wondering what’s your current situation like?
I work and retail in the west of Ireland and here it seems there’s a new shop closing down nearly every week, and people seem to be struggling. Are we getting into another recession?
Some will be broke, some will be just surviving, some will be doing ok and some will be loaded.
What kind of shops do you see closing down?
If they're new they shouldn't be opening
Is it when someone opens a successful coffee/gourmet burger/ice cream/etc place and then X number of copycat businesses open and Y number go to the wall in a short time as the market gets saturated?
Retail has been slowly dying for years. Got to have a very niche/specialised offering or be able to compete with the megastores on price/range to get feet in the door these days.
The collapse of the hospitality industry in this country is imminent. It's just not competitive for what is being offered.
Went for a lunch in an international chain restaurant, busy South Dublin location: Cost €120 for myself, partner & child, service took over 2 hours to deliver the 3 course. Mains were served barely warm, desserts clearly were frozen/prepackaged.
We were told over and over again there were a grand total of 3 staff on site that day. This is becoming more and more normal. Don't think there will be any more covid style bailouts, it's an industry that will need to be allowed to fail and figure out how to provide a better offering to customers to survive.
The amount of people scrambling for Taylor Swift, Coldplay and Bruce Springstein €100+ tickets would suggest there's quite a few people not broke!
People can't afford a house, crammed in with the parents and house shares so money that might have gone on a deposit is going on luxuries, tickets, weekend city breaks, Charlie, what have you.
I notice small town pharmacies are crammed with staff doing nothing. They must be raking it in .
Being broke and living at home is the new normal and people are adjusting to it.
Those tickets just mean they're not spending money on meals outside, or drinking, or shopping, or whatever else.
I’m not broke… but when I priced 3 tickets to Bruce Springsteen when they went on sale they came in over €1,000 (on the Ticketmaster site).
I’m not broke, but I’m not fcking stupid either…
Not broke, but earning 6 figures and having to budget for daily expenses like shopping etc, absolutely. I saw a graph showing we were in the top 2 of the EU27 for cost of living etc and I'd believe that. Our shopping costs even with migrating to Lidl and Aldi has almost doubled in the last 18 months.
€1000 net income per week isn't big money nowadays for a family with a decent enough mortgage. Don't know how people are getting by.
Its not too bad in this country once you dont need to interact with the property market. Wages are good.
Who doesn't interact with the property market? You either rent, have a mortgage or live with your parents because you cant get either of the above or your extremely privileged and have paid off your mortgage or been gifted a house.
The amount of barbers, Chemists, Phone Repairs and Coffee shops in most regional towns suggests that's the game to be in….
6 figures is a lot of wage. how do people get into a situation like that, mortgage & childcare?
I don't how hospitality can keep going without a lot of rationalisation. To buy a lunch or dinner anywhere now is quite expensive, so is alcoholic drink.
The thing is we have full employment at the moment, that won't last forever. I think a lot of people have adjusted their spending over the last two years. I would expect an awful lot of job losses in hospitality at some point in the next five years.
My local town in the west of Ireland also has a lot of vacant retail units, but there are a number of local factors, it'd be unfair to say that it reflects what's happening elsewhere, but it might do.
Significant chunk of retail has shifted online and continuing
Having paid off your mortgage is not a mark of extreme privilege.
It means that over a period of time you have diverted part of your income into providing a home for yourself.
Of course once you have it paid off after perhaps 25 to 30 years you have more disposable income.
There's a need for them and that's a large part of it but deffo the pharmacies seems to be profitable
Coffee shops will go with a downturn
This suggests that at least some people have too much money.
This will mean that city centre medium and large retailers will eventually close in tandem with people discouraged, for good or ill, to drive in to shop.
Clothing, shoes, hardware, homewares etc will move online and to peripheral shopping centres.
Corner shops, vape, mobile shops, restaurants, pubs, hotels, coffee shops will be left.
If you can't buy a house, you might as well enjoy the ride anyway.
Aging population will keep pharmacies open.
Large furniture chain in Dublin closed down yesterday ,Lots of people that paid deposits late last week knocking on empty doors but unless they paid by credit card its gone
I dnt know, buying clothes online is a pain and often doesnt work out, I hardly ever buy clothes online.
This, and increased numbers on medical cards, chemist shop is the only retail outlet left in some villages
I live in the west of Ireland.
House prices in my estate have risen by 25%-40% in about five years.
There are plenty of expensive cars about.
There is traffic congestion.
Nationally, employment is strong, unemployment is low, profits are high, and household finances have improved.
no recession looking very likely but the fact housing markets are in a hyper inflated state, helping to maintain high rental prices, and dont look like being resolved anytime soon, wage inflation remaining low in comparison, its mainly those in low waged sectors such as retail will remain to be in trouble, oh and some sectors seeing record profits, tis all good really, no recession…..
I think if you're in the area of retail that sells essential things, the 'bread & milk' sector then things will stay much the same. Everyone needs food and prefer to buy local services like getting hair cut etc.
It's the hard and white goods, electronics market that is being hit with online competition. People will go to the local co-op to buy a spade as it's handy but will buy the new lawnmower online etc as it's cheaper.
We produce goods that traditionally we sold through shops. Now it's 50/50 wholesale sales v online sales. Furthermore the number of outlets who will stock our goods is shrinking by the year. Many want to carry fewer lines and just stick to the 'bread & milk'. This has not been helped in the western counties the last 2 years with less footfall both in domestic and international tourism. Irish people loved the staycation for a year or so but are now flocking abroad again (if they can fly) and international traffic is down in the sort of people who'd be buying our stuff. If you play golf and stay in a 5 star, it's grand. If you're on more of a budget and looking for lower priced accommodation, not so much. The state has hoovered it up.
So this all adds up to less demand, fewer sales and turnover and closures.
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