Separate discussion for the EU election results.
The transfer of a surplus from the first count takes a long time, as they check *ALL* the FPV votes to determine the distribution of the surplus.
I came across this just now. This can't be right?
700k ballot papers too, takes a while no matter how many people are counting.
How has ORiordan gone down 207 votes between 13th and 15th counts?
Where are you following the counts? The Irish times has count 13 in its last update.
Cuffe will be eliminated 7th, his transfers will get Daly ahead of Niall Boylan. Niall Boylan will be eliminated 6th, his transfers will get Daly past O Riordan.
Daly is definitely not out of this.
Agreed, especially that she will be the main beneficiary from Brid
They were talking about this on one of the radio panels. Hand counted STV makes no sense for the euro elections. There's all kinds of wheeling and dealing happening among elected candidates around Europe and we've barely elected one yet. They need to change the system for the euros to another kind of PR (list system) or bring in electronic counting of votes (there be dragons though).
65/35 in favour of Niall Boylan over Clare Daly.
Is this another set of odds based on gut feeling
I wonder will Aodhan actually benefit from Brid's transfers. Maybe. Gibney's will help a lot. So he's not out of it either.
a YouTube prankster just got elected in Cyprus.
The EU parliament is getting silly now. Low turnout overall but a high % of those who vote use it as a protest vote, in some countries.
So you end up with all manner of gimps being elected, who wouldn’t have a hope in a general election. Whatever the Front National are called these days are a prime example. They won’t get anywhere near the vote in the upcoming general election in France.
A lot of people must have short memories of the statements Daly was making in the EP about Russia invading it's neighbour or maybe they agreed with it. At the time I felt most were embarrassed by it.
I'm keeping an eye on Gavan Reilly of Virgin Media News on TwitterX, he has a google doc he is updating.
Dublin: https://bit.ly/ee24dublin
South: bit.ly/ee24south
MNW: bit.ly/ee24mnw
https://x.com/gavreilly
She'd have had a strange mix of hard left and hard right voters no doubt
Ah, by the looks of it he has some formula I guess and he has columns for count 14 and 15 which haven't happened? They're identical in that sheet.
You can be rest assured he didn't create that excel sheet.
This is the biggest shock so far for me.
Celebrity candidates work on people I guess!
I agree that Carberry is a poor candidate and is purely playing to the "celebrity" angle but when you look at the top 10 in each constitunecy, she's not the only one who seems a bit rubbish; very few capable people in there IMO:
LUKE 'MING' FLANAGAN
IND
NINA CARBERRY
FG
BARRY COWEN
FF
MARIA WALSH
CIARAN MULLOOLY
II
MICHELLE GILDERNEW
SF
LISA CHAMBERS
PEADAR TÓIBÍN
AON
NIALL BLANEY
CHRIS MACMANUS
BARRY ANDREWS
REGINA DOHERTY
NIALL BOYLAN
LYNN BOYLAN
CIARÁN CUFFE
GP
AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN
LAB
CLARE DALY
I4C
BRÍD SMITH
PBP-SOL
SINÉAD GIBNEY
SD
AISLING CONSIDINE
SEÁN KELLY
BILLY KELLEHER
MICHAEL MCNAMARA
CYNTHIA NÍ MHURCHÚ
MICK WALLACE
KATHLEEN FUNCHION
GRACE O'SULLIVAN
JOHN MULLINS
DEREK BLIGHE
IF
PAUL GAVAN
That's how I felt too.
It's hard enough to do "a good job" in Brussels given you are just 1 out of 730 seats. Just turn up and be professional, I suppose.
But it's easy enough to embarrass the whole country, like Daly and Wallace have been doing.
Handy number. Fully expensed. Do as your told on votes, keep relatively quiet
Bunsen burner…..Nice little earner…. as a great wise man once said
I’m not vouching for Nina in particular but I do believe that transferable competence is a real thing and I have hired (and been hired) sometimes on that principle. As in if someone is very accomplished in their previous profession they can transfer a lot of that into their new career, in this case politics and public policy, assuming they also have some reasonable ethics and sense of public duty and yes personal ambition isn’t always a bad thing here. So no reason why a jockey , or other pro level athlete, who I presume in this case was one of the best in the world (and therefore has tremendous work ethic and discipline) can’t do as good a job as a middle of the road school teacher or solicitor
it's not about her being a celebrity. most people voted for her because she's FG, not because she's nina carberry.
Ah yeah, I am not following closely and just noticed the excel.
Eh, actually i wouldn't be so sure of that. Actually anecdotally i know a couple who voted for her purely on the basis of her being who she is.
Kildare/Meath are huge Horsey people communities and she was a hugely popular jock. She's also married to Ruby's brother so that's Kill wrapped up. She'll have mopped up a lot around Naas/Craddockstown/Punchestown and surrounding area's and that's before you even go to Meath.
Yeah, speaking time is extremely limited, if you even want to speak. No hassle on the doorsteps or streets either because nobody really knows (or cares?) what you're working on.
It looks like Labour and Green aren’t getting the transfers in Dublin. Between Dalys 26,000 first preference, Lynn Boylans 35,000, and Niall Boylans 30,000 I would say two of those three will go through. If it were the case that the FF and FG votes were counted beyond first preference a los of them would have gone to Cuffe and ORiordan but as it’s the extreme lefties and extreme righties transferring all their votes they will only go to mainly the above three. And in Ireland South it could be Walllace through also if the same happens. Hold your breath lads, we could be back to Daly and Wallace in the parliament again.
I voted for her i looked at the sheet and she was the only person i recognised apart from a few wasters who i wouldn't give the steam of my p!$$ to.
But which is better or worse - A Nina Carberry, who goes over to be a very quiet small cog but in a clear bloc that is delivering a European policy, or at least has influence and a plan.
Or the likes of a Wallace, Daly, Niall Boylan that go over with no clear plan other than to 'stick it to the elite' - usually vote contrarian to everyone else, and have no real influence on any policy beyond occasional rant.
It's a genuine question - in both cases individually they offer very little, but the Daly or Wallace type might make a headline to embarrasses the higher ups into a tweak to policy, whereas a Carberry can be used by FG to say to the EPP we'll take our 4 seats to another Bloc unless we get a, b or c
I think Gibney's transfers will be key for Cuffe and O'Riordan… they need a lot from that 15,000. Then if one gets ahead of the other, they have a source of transfers to get over the line.
I had similar thoughts on FF \ FG not having any surplus.
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w9.vanillicon.com/v2/9429a6e87ca90295fb14e1083556c0c3.svg)
