Separate discussion for the EU election results.
so, based on cafolla's transfers - 140 to o'riordan, and 90 or so to niall boylan.
though cuffe jumped by 450.
Count 7 results in and no surprises, Niall Boylan the biggest beneficiary among the candidates who will still be in the running beyond teatime.
Rebecca Barrett didn't quit manage enough to leapfrog Ogle, so the 729 transfers she got from Quinlan will be looking for new homes immediately.
102 to Smith was a sufficient surprise for me!
As was only about 1/11th being non-transferrable.
you are right , .i should have said ‘B’ or ‘C’.
Boylan only got 227 voted from the National Party candidates exclusion, that around 10%. He's got no chance of getting a seat if he's only getting 10% of the transfers from other right wing candidates.
1. The NP and IFP have done better at getting transfers from the right than him but do they circle back around to him when they go? However the right in general so far are bleeding transfers when they are knocked out and are not transferring to each other at a massively high rate so far. Only about 54%.
Eva Braun transferring to N Boylan, Aontu and the other two remaining far-right mostly. But some going everywhere including L Boylan.
563 more papers dead, Ogle out now.
N Boylan has got 1400 transfers out of many, many thousands of right wing votes so far - and some of them came from non right wing candidates.
It's all a bit shuffling-the-deck-chairs-on-the-Titanic until we get to the elimination of Sinead Gibney I feel.
The question these counts are posing, and answering, is will N Boylan continue to pick up as relatively few of the far right transfers as he currently is.
Lol, Lynn Boylan with 335 transfer from Heir Barret. Nearly the same number as Philip Dwyer and the Irish Freedom Party candidate and more than Malachy Stenson. I can only assume most of those transferred to her by mistake when voters msitskenly put her down rather than Niall Boylan?
Niall Boylan must be out of it at this point.
Gibneys transfers will go to Cuffe, then O'Riordan I think. Brid Smiths will go to Clare daly and lynn Boylan.
Would be Ironic if Niall Boylan's transfers ended up getting Ciaran Cuffe or Brid Smith elected….
There'll be some frothing at the mouth if he doesn't get elected.
Funny enough - I didnt have one person knock on the door the whole election campaign, so I'm not sure who much 'affable on the doorstep' matters.
I would be surprised if the Social Democrats transfer was stronger to Labour and Greens than Clare Daly, Sinn Fein and PBP but I guess we'll find out before too long.
I can't see SD being all that transferable to the latter 3. They are a very different branch of left.
Heard him being interviewed on RTE radio yesterday.
He seemed to have caught a bad dose of Saoirse McHughitis* as he said he would prefer to be taking the third seat instead of a dogfight for the fourth.
Take a look at their transfers in the locals - it'll be Labour/Green but hard to say which more than the other.
Following the first 8 counts, among the top 10 remaining candidates, Niall Boylan has gained the most transfers.
Niall Boylan and Aisling Considine are the only two top 10 candidates that have changed position (Boylan +1 to 5th, Considine +1 to 11th). Notable they are the two right of centre candidates.
Dwyer, Steenson and Considine will have up to 28,000 'right of centre' votes to distribute in the next few rounds, and I think Niall Boylan could go on a bit of a run then. So, even allowing that many will not transfer further, Niall Boylan still has a chance of being ahead of Lynn Boylan when we get down to the last 9 candidates (her major pool during this phase is about 12,000 votes from Doolan). I think Niall Boylan will also pass Cuffe, not convincved Cuffe will get transfers in volume in these rounds either.
Niall Boylan may not survive much longer after that, and as others have said the transfers of Gibney, Smith and Daly will settle it.
I think it could be Andrews, Doherty, O'Ríordáin and Lynn Boylan in that order.
Any word on when there'll be a count from the other 2 constituencies?
Calling South Count Centre, Nemo Rangers. Six One is on air now, feel free to take centre stage.
Where did Saoirse McHugh fret about accommodation. A brief google failed to enlighten me. Would you have a link?
Still a lot of non left transfer up for grabs for Niall Boylan. I reckon he has a 50/50 chance.
To quote myself. On six one, Pascal has said they are taking a meal break and now expect a first count around the Nine O'Clock news instead.
The images from the Castlebar count centre are straight out of Father Ted. Still no first count.
I do believe in free speech.
I don't agree with calling posters morons because you don't agree with them, it is childish, aggressive and something an uneducated far right individual might do.
Ogle's transfers - Steenson (he was left, once), Smith, but then O Riordain before Daly.
O Conarain out now.
I just don't see it tbh, but we will see soonish I suppose! I think the people with big transfers still to come like Smith or Daley won't really be many going to him.
I think I know Cafollas dad , is he in the horticulture business?
Sandro Cafolla
84% of votes are still transferring (3421 of Ogles 4052 went to remaining candidates). About the same as previous count. So plenty to play for.
I suspect a bit of a meltdown from some if they see their guy go up to 3rd and then back down out of the top 4.
