Separate discussion for the EU election results.
You don't believe in free speech bro? Such a Leftist.
5th count, O'Rourkes votes scatter left mostly.
No change to elimination order this time.
Cafolla - Rabartha but running as Independent due to registration issues - Eliminated. This makes it possible (yet unlikely) that Brendan Ogle could get past O Conarain. Would only buy another count before elimination anyway. These are likely to scatter left rather than go heavily to one candidate.
The two at the top who needed 13k and 14k still need basically 13k and 14k; they've got about 200 each total so far.
Cuffe continues to lag the others in transfers.
Good to see the Jihadi-like Green Parties get destroyed in this election. Good to see fellow Europeans standing up to their nonsense
He may get the best of those four from Cafolla. Next two out after him are going to be the two warring National Party candidates who will transfer most to N Boylan of any of those (but I'd see over half of the votes going non-transferrable at this stage).
Ogle more to L Boylan and O Conrain mostly non-transferrable I'd guess after that.
Any indication of when there'll be a first count of results from either South or Midlands/North/West ?
Its becoming harder and harder to see a path to victory for Cuffe. He needed a much bigger lead over Labour to stand a chance.
asphinctersayswhat?
The journal saying 5/6 pm for south
South is now 6pm according to RTE
i'll be very curious to see how many of cafolla's transfer to boylan!
Tea time for both according to RTE
South keeps getting pushed, expect around 6pm
MNW could be tomorrow, sure what would you expect getting Mayo people to count
Which ever if Cuffe or O'Riordan are limited first they will push the other one above Boylan again. I am going with O'Riordan to make it but that is not ideal for the labour party.
I know the media have more or less crowned Barry Andrews and Regina Doherty already but where are they going to get the 13/14k votes in transfers to meet the quota?
In 2019 there was a 2nd FG candidate to get Frances Fitzgerald over the line and an early Labour elimination to help Barry Andrews narrowly win the last seat. It's hard to see what that source is now in a field full of left wing and anti-establishment right independents.
If they're relying on waiting for a Green or Labour elimination it could be a long wait and creates a danger of one of them being passed out.
You don't need to meet the quota. There is no plausible scenario where four others can exceed their number of votes; at some stage there will be no mathematical scenario either (if not already, I'm not doing the maths yet)
Nobody ever transfers 100% to anyone, even Doolin is likely to only transfer 60-70% to L Boylan.
sinead gibey, when eliminated, should be good for AOR, i assume.
The left vote is split across a lot of candidates, but transfers will surely get either o Riordan or cuffed over the line
Hard to see how N Boylan gets enough to stay ahead. By count 14 he will be behind and stay there, barring a shock
I wouldn't be so sure. Ciaran Cuffe will get a share. All swimming in the liberal, soft-left pool
Will also transfer to Smith and probably Daly to some extent - and Cuffe. That could be the elimination that puts O Riordain ahead of Cuffe though.
Doolan doesn't seem to be transferring well to Boylan according to observations of tally people.
Daithi is a very affable guy on the door step, and a grafter, he will have a strong personal vote, it may well not transfer to Boylan.
That's Boylan done so , he might have hoped for a significant transfer from Doolan, the SF vote is an anti establishment vote like Boylans only obviously not the same, crossover exists however
It would have been presumed to go to Lynn Boylan. Not Niall Boylan, anecdotally it is by by more than Boylan.
I don't know if he would have expected more from Doolan than any other.
You seem a bit confused around the issue of jihadis.
Yeah I'd be guessing Daly would be his main source of transfers among the main left contenders, with her maverick profile…
Well obviously the bulk of Doolans transfers will go to Lynn Boylan but Niall would hope to see a fair whack of the minority, he's getting nothing from Sinead Gibney or Cuffe if he's eliminated first ?
Daly is far left albeit not establishment like say Paul Murphy , she would have nothing in common with Niall Boylan though her voter's are more likely to transfer to Niall than say green or Labour Soc Dems are
He's massively up against it and I'd be amazed if he makes it , when Niall Boylan goes out , his transfers might help Clare Daly more than the champagne socialist candidates
6th count, Cafolla's transfers. Going mostly left - Cuffe, Smith, Gibney, Daly, Ogle, O Riordain roughly in that order.
Quinlan (NP - Reynolds side) out next.
Non-transferrables have now exceeded the number of votes the lowest candidate got.
it would be great to know how much difference voting all the way down will make to this ballot.
Cafolla transferred much more friendly to the left than the various right wing candidates did to the right.
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