Separate discussion for the EU election results.
It can go to 3rd and 4th preferences on the 2nd count. If 2nd last can't catch 3rd last even with every transfer from last place they skip a step and eliminate them at the same time (since it is mathematically impossible for 2nd last not to get eliminated the next round anyway). This keeps up until they reach someone who could actually overtake someone with the available transfers.
Yes they sample the ballot papers but only after they have been subdivided by the next preferences that are remaining in the race.
In this example there would be a stack of 750 with #1 - A, #2 - B and
a stack of 750 with #1 - A, #2 - C on them.
They would just take the top 250 from each stack and those are the transfers.
So B receives 250 ballots that have #1 -A, #2 - B on them. What those ballots have for lower preferences than that is entirely up to chance.
Unlikely. One thing I have noticed about anti immigration governments is that they are well aware that their vote is dependent on having immigrants to complain about so none have really done much about the issue.
Me reading, well 'scanning', the last couple of pages of this thread
I've a sore head mesel with all the talk about surpluses 😕
That's the thing with 1 issue parties/independents if that issue is gone then what
I wouldn't write off Niall Boylan just yet. Andrews needs 13000 transfers, Regina needs 14000 which means they'll be in the race quite a while before reaching the quota/being elected as they require a total of 27000 transfers, many of these would likely otherwise go to establishment candidates (Cuffe, O'Riordan) which means if Niall picks up a large amount of transfers from the far right/independent candidates he could leapfrog to 3rd. I don't think Lynn Boylan will pick up enough transfers from Doolan and independents to remain competitive. Very difficult to predict, get the popcorn in, it is going a fascinating few days...
Just don't get the AOR vote at all 🙃 find him a smug condescending person.
But then I struggle to think of reasons for many of them
Guess it's kind of the same as anyone who isn't an alarmist over asylum seekers is "open borders", right?
Persecution complex on this site remains as strong as ever. Plenty of right wing commentators out there, and posters on here of right leaning persuasions, who are all too happy to push the extreme labels on others too.
Belgium's PM resigned
I imagine that this is why Macron has called the election — to spare months of a narrative of a great right wing revolution building up.
It may sound strange coming from someone like me, having previously lived and worked in France and being pretty solidly against Le Pen, but I've gotten to a stage where I can make peace with her taking power if only as a demonstration to the world that the problems of the world are not easily reversible equations merely obfuscated by the Left. The 'Take Back Control' crew have already demonstrated this next door.
Of course however, there are risks that right wing governments in Europe's centres of power will bring back the days of European powers acting only in their own interest which people will applaud until they realise that this is in nobody's interests.
Getting firmly rejected in Germany also which is fantastic news.
The right is on the rise ☺️
Is there a website where I can see the European election numbers for the 3 EDs, count by count, in tabular layout.
Like the old days :)
Unlike the current RTE layout which seems to be geared towards smartphone Insta-analysis (ie none) of the most recent count only.
A literal bandwagon jumper, one who's happy to hitch their own wagon onto whatever the "cause du jour" is.
I lost all respect for him when he was speaking before the repeal the 8th referendum and he claimed that he himself had been the victim of homophobic attacks…..despite not being a gay man. Some of the kids in school called him Gaydán O'Queerdán and that meant he found solidarity with them.
As long as Niall Boylan doesn't get in and both Wallace and Daly get the boot thats good enough for me.
That is the dream scenario tbh
am a bit confused. Does ‘A’ not get 500 votes of the 1000 added to his total ? And if not , why are these second preferences devalued to 1/3 of a first preference. I am probably missing something,?
There is an opening there for SINAWIL or another programme developer to do a programme on how the counting is operated. Fairly easy to do since it can use an actual case in taking any counting centre. Might be easier to set up a fictions centre using smaller numbers.
Surely the Gov should fund such an endevour
Irelandelections.com will in due course put up the full figures, count by count. But I don't know how long it will take them to collect all the data and post it — their focus is on establishing a permanent database of votes and results, not on providing up-t0o-the-second coverage of live counts.
Once the likes of Niall Boylan dont get in I couldn't care less.
I was just thinking the same.
Maybe this one https://elections.independent.ie/european-election-2024/dublin
The biggest unknown for me in Dublin is where do the Smith or Daly transfers go to, if one is eliminated before the other. You'd think they are both drawing from same voter pool, and should be transfer freindly, but there's also rumours of serious bitterness between them, and has that spread to their voters.
i voted for niall boylan.
i hope he gets in.
Quota was 1000, then A had 500 surplus. (1500-1000)
A's surplus gets distributed proportionally based on all the #2s across all 1500 of A's votes.
So you look at all #2s, work out what % of total 1500 votes had #2 for B, same for C, and then apply that % to the actual surplus (500 votes).
500 out of 1500 had B as #2, which is 33%. So of the 500 surplus, B gets 500*.33=166
That and Sinn Fein not getting any seats would set me off to Vince McMahon levels of celebration.
Good for you
F**k me even John Waters is running in the Midlands, this popped into my head as soon as I seen that
Look at some of the people that got a lot of votes in this election. Why AOR gets votes is somewhat confusing but nothing compared to some of the candidates on offer.
Eamon Murphy excluded on the second count. Lots of these early counts will be various right wing candidates going now, if they coherently transfer one might hang on longer but I seriously doubt they will.
Ming Flanagan, whats his deal?
I tend to think of Luke Flanagan as part of the Mick Wallace, Claire Daly mess… but whats his story? Where are his politics? I didn't mind him when he had minor celebrity staus in my college years, but what I'm mostly concerned with is his stance on Russia/Ukraine… the other pair seem to be acting against the consesnus of the Irish people and siding with Russia and I'd even question their ethics… Ming has been presenting himself on social media as a hard working MEP…
RTE are doing are providing a updated numbers on a count by count basis for the Europeans. I assume it was just too much work to be able to do it for every local election constituency.
