Separate discussion for the EU election results.
Do you think the Greens care that the people don't like them. It is Olaf Scholz who will be under pressure as the SPD party will be wondering why people don't like them and he is their biggest problem.
Random selection essential a lucky dip. I
RTE really relishing in Sinn Fein's collapse.
Just goes to show that they were indeed the protest vote all along and given their possible brush with power after the last general election, that protest vote knows better this time and gave it to the Independents where protest votes belong.
Sinn Fein committed political suicide with their policy regarding covid restrictions and immigration, especially the former.
I thought that surpluses (at least on a first count) were distributed proportionally
edit - sorry misunderstood the question!
The right wing vote in Dublin has increased from 3% to a staggering 20% since 2019.
No you would have to recount through all the ballot papers to distribute proportionally. Problem either that is as surplus can get a candidate over the quota. It'd this section of the second candidates ballot papers that are sampled to distribute his surplus
How are you calculating the 20%?
Niall Boylan alone has 8%. Steenson, Dwyer, Considine, Barret, Quinlan combined have amassed around the same percentage as Boylan thats 16%.
There is a couple of others there also.
It's a push back against neo liberalism, really great news from many countries across Europe .Power to the people.
I think its mainly down to immigration. People are fed up with the huge numbers coming in, especially here in Ireland. Its unsustainable, this generation and maybe the next will find it very very hard to get on the property ladder then you have the huge strain its having on healthcare and public transport.
I'm assuming here that the candidate got elected on the first count. If that is the case then all of their ballots are examined for their second preferences. They then distribute the surplus in proportion to the various #2 preferences.
In your example you've actually only accounted for 1000 of the 1500 #2s.
So lets assume instead that there were actually 750 #2 preferences for B and 750#2 preferences for C. Well that would mean that the transfers should go equally to candidates B and C
The number of ballots to be transferred is the total vote minus the quota - so 1,500 - 1,000 = 500
So B will get 250 votes transferred and C will get 250 votes transferred and 1,000 ballots will stay with Candidate A and will not transfer at all.
The actual ballots that are physically sent over are effectively chosen at random but the proportions sent over are not random.
I think first time around yes but once transferables are in the pile they take the votes after the quota they counted
Pretty sure there aren't really any others.
So what's the projected seat change in the EP with the right & far right parties, or even just vote %?
Except it doesn't look like Ireland pushed right as much as other countries. You will get a nasty shock when you see it aint the biggest reason for the problem in all of those areas
So.. 20% support, but a 43.37% turnout. So 91.3% of the people didn't vote for them.
If they figure out they should combine forces, they will do alright in the next elections.
When candidates get elected after the first count then it's a little different. When a candidate reaches the quota to be elected after receiving transfers from some other candidate then only that parcel of votes that they received are the ones that are examined in order to determine what gets transferred.
So let's go back to our previous example where Candidate A transferred 250 votes to both candidates A and candidates B.
Well let's assume that Candidate B themselves got 900 votes in the first round. That means after the second round they now have 1,150 votes (900+250). Since they've surpassed the quota of 100 they are deemed elected and their own surplus will be transferred. They have a surplus of 150 votes (1,150 - 1,000).
In order to determine where that surplus goes only the 250 votes that they received from candidate A are examined. They calculate the proportions to transfer and then transfer the 150 ballot surplus as determined by those proportions.
O Conorain, O Rourke and Heasman.
Butter it up all you like, its a huge rise from the last European elections.
No they sample the stack of ballot papers. The returning officer in your example takes a random selection of 500 ballots from Candidate A. What B and C get is a random selection it might be 250/250 but it coualso be 300/200. However on the law of probability it is unlikely to be that far out. If you counted the 2nd preferences technically you still would have to sample them. What about 3 and4 th preferences which are important down the line
This is the projected breakdown. The non-aligned would have some far right members like the AfD after they were kicked out of the Identity and Democracy group.
Great to see the Greens getting decimated. Charlatans
Aontu are not a right wing party. They would probably describe themselves as Irish nationalists and Catholic conservatives, but would not fit the bill of what we would regard as right wing.
It seems anything against the current woke brigade is classed as right wing these days. This was a retweet from Considine a few weeks back. Lock stock and barrel right wing by the left is the below policies.
https://x.com/TomOHanlon17/status/1798954956718030915?t=0ipEZsqR8iyPU5JxaIEtIg&s=19
II - 8.1%
Aontu - 2.8%
NP - 1.5%
IF - 1.2%
IFP - 0.9%
IP - 0.5%
Stenson - circa 2%
17% and likely zero seats. Not sure that's a great day at the office.
NR received 32% or around that. If you were to judge solely by looking at that map you’d think it was a landslide. It’s not an accurate depiction of the result as they dominated rural areas with less people yet has a bigger land mass. It’s just a dumb way to present it.
Is everybody that voted for anybody else apart from the government far right now? ,I'm not far right and i voted for people that I think will do a better job with my tax money,
Ah that's a great site to see it all. Yeah AfD have 14 seats which are added to the non-aligned. That's +3.
In France RN 30 seats, +6.
So the far right gained an extra 9 seats out of 720.
People talk about a far right surge, I was just looking for the figures to see how big of a surge.
If this happens on the first count, they look at all 1500 votes, and check the 2nd prefs in all 1500 votes.
So they know all the 2nd prefs.
Then they apply those proportions to the 500 surplus.
B would get 1/3 (500/1500) of the 500 surplus.
C would get 1/3 (500/1500) of the 500 surplus.
No randomness, it's purely proportional.
HOWEVER,
on later counts, they only look at the bundle of votes that took the candidsate over the quota.
